The Washington Times

Threat Status for Wednesday, March 19, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he planned to draw a “red line” during an expected phone call with President Trump on Wednesday: Kyiv, he said, won’t cede territory to Russia as part of any ceasefire accord. This seems to put the two countries on a high-stakes collision course, as the White House has indicated it’s open to a land-for-security guarantees deal that would likely concede some Ukrainian land now occupied by Russian forces.

… There’s also the question of whether Russian President Vladimir Putin lied to Mr. Trump during their own phone call Tuesday. They said they agreed to a partial ceasefire in Ukraine, with Moscow pledging to halt attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities for 30 days.

… But Mr. Zelenskyy said that version of events is “very much at odds with reality” after Russia launched a massive drone attack that Ukraine says targeted energy infrastructure.

… Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin also spoke about staging a series of hockey games between players from their respective countries.

… The Trump administration made good on its promise to release a trove of previously classified documents about President John F. Kennedy’s assassination. The papers contain information about assassin Lee Harvey Oswald’s ties to Russia.

… A federal judge late Tuesday issued an injunction blocking the Pentagon’s effort to push out transgender troops.

… Another federal judge said the Department of Government Efficiency’s effort to shutter the U.S. Agency for International Development was likely unconstitutional.

… NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams are back on Earth after more than nine months in space. They were brought back home by SpaceX, tech billionaire Elon Musk’s space company.

… And the FBI has launched a terrorism probe into arson attacks at Tesla dealerships.

Israel says strikes on Hamas 'only the beginning'

The collapse of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire looks to be the catalyst for a major new Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip. Military Correspondent Mike Glenn has new information from the ground in Israel, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the airstrikes this week against Hamas were “only the beginning” of a renewed offensive in the Palestinian enclave.

In the face of intense criticism for breaking the ceasefire, Mr. Netanyahu said in an address on Tuesday that the attacks would continue until the Palestinian militant group Hamas is completely destroyed and the remaining hostages the group holds are recovered. Palestinian sources say that more than 400 people have been killed so far in the Israeli attacks, but those numbers cannot be independently verified.

Hamas vowed revenge, but the Iran-backed militant group also said that “Washington bears full responsibility for the massacres and the killing of women and children in Gaza.”

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was “outraged” by the strikes. And much of the international community has publicly called on Israel to abandon the attacks and return to ceasefire talks.

U.S.-South Africa relations sour as Washington set to expel ambassador

It’s gotten relatively little attention amid American tensions with Canada, Panama, Ukraine and other nations. But U.S. bonds with South Africa — an increasingly important geopolitical relationship as adversaries such as China seek to forge new partnerships in the Global South — are fraying quickly.

Washington Times Correspondent Geoff Hill breaks it all down in a new dispatch from Johannesburg, explaining the backstory and rationale behind the Trump administration’s declaration that South African Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool is now persona non grata and must leave the country. The roots of the dispute trace back to the South African envoy appearing to link Mr. Trump and his MAGA movement to “White supremacist” movements.

Mr. Rasool, who also served as ambassador during the Obama administration, was ordered to leave the United States by Friday. Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused him of “race-baiting” and said he was “no longer welcome in our great country.”

It’s the first time a head of mission had been expelled since bilateral diplomatic ties were first established in 1799, when John Adams’ administration opened a consulate in Cape Town. Mr. Rasool has described the rift as “regrettable.”

U.S. Institute for Peace, DOGE standoff heads to court

There are more developments in the dramatic feud between Elon Musk’s DOGE and the U.S. Institute of Peace, a congressionally chartered and funded think tank. The Times’ Vaughn Cockayne is tracking the latest, including USIP’s federal court filings on Wednesday morning. The independent institute filed a formal complaint and an emergency motion for a temporary restraining order with the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. The complaint targets DOGE, Mr. Trump and acting USIP President Kenneth Jackson.

The complaint says the temporary restraining order is necessary to prevent DOGE employees from accessing the institute’s sensitive computer systems. The filing follows the contentious takeover of the USIP office building near the National Mall on Monday. DOGE workers, along with Mr. Jackson, gained access to the offices and evicted USIP staff and former President George Moose.

The White House has said that “rogue bureaucrats will not be allowed to hold agencies hostage.”

Podcast exclusive: Key lawmaker defends the DOGE 'wrecking ball'

Some prominent lawmakers freely admit that DOGE has been a “wrecking ball” across Washington. But, they say, that was the only way Republicans would ever truly make good on their longstanding goal to shrink the size and scope of the federal government.

Rep. Mark Green, chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, makes that case on the most recent episode of the Threat Status weekly podcast.

“Is there some collateral damage? Absolutely. Will we have to come back and fix that collateral damage? Yes,” the Tennessee Republican said. “Honestly, we weren’t going to get it done without a wrecking ball. That’s what Elon is.”

Opinion: Trump's pivotal moment on Ukraine

Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin may have agreed in principle to a limited ceasefire in Ukraine. But for the U.S. president, it’s the next steps that are the most important.

Threat Status contributor Clifford D. May argues in a new piece for The Times that dictators in Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang are all watching the Ukraine-Russia diplomacy as a “test of Mr. Trump’s strength” and that the president’s actions will shape global affairs for years to come.

Mr. May, the founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, lays out what he believes should be a realistic goal for the Trump administration’s peace push.

“I don’t think Mr. Trump or anyone else can put Russia and Ukraine on a ‘path to peace.’ Predators don’t make peace with their prey. What is achievable is a cessation of hostilities leading to a frozen conflict,” he writes. “How long can the conflict remain frozen? The conflict between the two Koreas has been on ice for 72 years, thanks to the United States.”

“Such an outcome would not represent a victory for justice, but it would be preferable to the bloody status quo,” Mr. May says. “If Mr. Trump achieves this, he will deserve plaudits and be able to turn his full energies to the many other foreign policy crises he has inherited from President Biden.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• March 19 — 2025 ARPA-E Energy Innovation Summit, ARPA-E

• March 20 — What’s Next for U.S. Defense Strategy and Spending? Brookings Institution

• March 25 — Building America’s Missile Defense Shield, The Heritage Foundation

• March 26 — Bending the Defense Cost Curve, Hudson Institute

• March 27 — Software-defined Warfare Blueprint, Atlantic Council

Thanks for reading Threat Status. Don’t forget to share it with your friends, who can sign up here. And listen to our weekly podcast available here or wherever you get your podcasts.

If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.