Threat Status for Wednesday, March 5, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.
The suspected ISIS terrorist who President Trump talked about in his speech to Congress Tuesday evening told FBI agents he not only was involved in the killing of American troops at Kabul International Airport in 2021, but he also had a role in last year’s attack on a Moscow concert hall.
… CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed Wednesday that the U.S. put a “pause” on intelligence-sharing with Ukraine as part of an effort to spur President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to cooperate with Mr. Trump’s push for a ceasefire with Russia.
… The strategy appears to be working: Mr. Zelenskyy expressed regret over last week’s heated Oval Office meeting in a social media post Tuesday, saying he’s now ready to “work fast to end the war” and strike a mineral deal with the U.S.
… Elbridge Colby, the nominee for the key position of undersecretary of defense for policy whose selection sparked division among conservatives, says the risk of war with China is real and the U.S. could lose unless greater preparations are made.
… And Mr. Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China have prompted swift retaliation Tuesday, igniting a sudden trade war and a wave of warnings from economists over what may lie ahead in terms of inflation.
U.S. authorities have arrested Mohammad Sharifullah for his involvement in the suicide bombing that killed 13 American troops and more than 160 Afghans during the 2021 troop withdrawal in Afghanistan. The suspect told the FBI after being taken into custody in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region that he also had a role in the 2024 Islamic State attack that killed 130 people at a Moscow concert hall.
Mr. Sharifullah has been flown to the U.S. and is slated to make an initial appearance in federal court in Virginia on Wednesday to face charges relating to his alleged role as a key figure within the Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham-Khorasan Province (ISIS-K). Mr. Trump announced the Sharifullah arrest in his address to Congress Tuesday night, calling the suspect a “monster” who orchestrated the attack on the Abbey Gate at Kabul’s airport on Aug. 26, 2021. Details revealed in an FBI affidavit suggest the suspect actually had a less prominent role in the attack.
Mr. Sharifullah told the FBI he got out of an Afghan prison two weeks before the attack and was quickly contacted by ISIS, was given a motorcycle and money to buy a cellphone. He told the FBI he was then asked to scout to make sure the route to Abbey Gate was clear for the actual suicide bomber. Washington Times reporter Stephen Dinan has details on the latest developments.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and the ruling Communist Party are determined to take control of the U.S.-backed island democracy of Taiwan by 2027, either with coercive methods or through an actual military assault, according to former high-level CIA Clandestine Service Officer David Sauer, who warns that the U.S. national security community should think of Beijing not as an emerging power, but as a peer competitor.
“Xi Jinping has been crystal clear about his strategic intent. He wants to reunify with Taiwan, and he’s made that very clear to everyone,” Mr. Sauer said during an appearance this week on The Washington Brief, a monthly virtual forum hosted by The Washington Times Foundation.
“What’s in it for [Mr. Xi]? Well, if he’s successful and he’s successful in doing this without resorting to [military means], he’ll go down in Chinese history as one of the greatest leaders of all time,” said Mr. Sauer. He said Mr. Xi currently is more invested in using a coercive policy focused on economic punishment and military intimidation without the use of force.
“But the fact is that he needs that kinetic option,” Mr. Sauer said. “And he has told his commanders, according to multiple press reports, to be ready by 2027 to give him the full range of options in order to try to take Taiwan, and that includes the full-scale invasion.”
The president’s firing of Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Charles Q. Brown and the broader leadership overhaul at the Pentagon are not going to result in a “politicized military,” according to Robert Greenway, director of the Allison Center for National Security at The Heritage Foundation.
Mr. Greenway goes inside Mr. Trump’s approach to the Defense Department in an exclusive interview on the latest episode of the Threat Status weekly podcast, asserting that “the military has one mission, and that mission is to fight and win our nation’s wars — and to do that, the organization has to be competent at war fighting, and it has to be dedicated and committed to it.”
“What is unique about the military, and no other organization shares this responsibility or this attribute in the same way, is that nothing could be more important than prevailing and success,” Mr. Greenway says. “Nothing can be more important than knowing that the individual service members and the people on their left and right are picked, trained, equipped in order to do that one function alone: to prevail, which means no other criteria can be more important than competence.”
Mr. Trump’s approach to the dilemma of the Ukraine war is to make a deal, writesThreat Status contributor Clifford D. May, who asserts that to achieve a ceasefire, the president “has been attempting to establish himself as the mediator and honest broker.”
“If he is to play that role, he can’t be Mr. Zelenskyy’s partner. He also can’t antagonize Mr. Putin. On the contrary, flattery is most likely to get the Russian ruler to the table,” writes Mr. May. “What will emerge from such a palaver is not justice. However, perhaps Mr. Trump can arrange a ceasefire. Perhaps he can turn a bloody stalemate into a bloodless stalemate. That’s not nothing.”
“Mr. Putin will, of course, use a pause to rearm and reorganize for the next round,” Mr. May writes. “That’s also when the Ukrainians can — indeed must — arm themselves to the teeth, establishing the deterrent capability they lacked three years ago.”
As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters its fourth year, with more than 700,000 casualties on both sides, it’s time to end this bloody war, writes former Associate Director of National Intelligence and Threat Status contributor Joseph R. DeTrani, who argues that “it’s also time to provide Ukraine with meaningful security assurances to protect its independence and sovereignty.”
“This is especially important given Russia’s violation of the security commitments to Ukraine from the U.S., Russia and Britain in the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances of Dec. 5, 1994,” writes Mr. DeTrani, who said China should play a role in resolving the current crisis.
“Chinese President Xi Jinping should support this effort to end the war,” he writes. “Although China is receiving a discounted price for the oil and gas it is buying from Russia, China’s support … permits Russia to continue its war of aggression in Ukraine. China’s international credibility with the European Union, the Global South and others has been measurably affected by China’s ‘no limits’ support for Russia.”
• March 12 — The Role of the Panama Canal in Global Commerce, Atlantic Council
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