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Threat Status for Friday, February 28, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

Inside Russian President Vladimir Putin’s mind: With Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington days after the Russian invasion surpassed the three-year mark, there’s much introspection on all geopolitical aspects of the war. Threat Status produced this deep-dive package examining Mr. Putin’s motives back in 2023.

… Mr. Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping are seen to be stewing over the reality that President Trump has orchestrated a Ukrainian rare earth mineral extraction deal that could make the U.S. the global power profiting off Russia’s invasion in the long run.

… Moscow is now offering to restore direct air links with the United States.

… The world has “never seen Iran at this relative weakness,” according to Bilal Saab, a former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration and head of TRENDS U.S., who sat down in the United Arab Emirates for an exclusive Threat Status Influencers video interview.

… Three mainstream parties have reached a deal to form a new centrist Austrian government, two weeks after a far-right party failed to put together an administration.

… SpaceX CEO Elon Musk continues to throw wild punches, redirecting his criticism of the Federal Aviation Administration’s aging system to the U.S. defense contractor L3Harris on Thursday, after discovering that Verizon was not the company behind the software. 

… U.S. defense contractor Lockheed Martin has unveiled a new layered defense system this week aimed at detecting and destroying drone swarms.

… And Mr. Trump’s far-out campaign claim that Haitian migrants in Ohio were dining on dogs is now a key piece of evidence as his opponents move to stymy his immigration agenda in the courts.

China's 'authoritarian shadow' to be spotlighted at hearing

House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Mark Green, R-Tenn., delivers a statement as the House Rules Committee meets to prepare the articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for a floor vote, at the Capitol in Washington, Monday, Feb. 5, 2024. Nearly two weeks after announcing he would not seek reelection, Green reversed course Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024, and announced he will pursue a fourth term after all. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)

House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Mark E. Green tells Threat Status that the committee is set to reveal new details of threats to the American homeland posed by China at a hearing Wednesday examining Beijing’s “information warfare” activities.

“The People’s Republic of China is working tirelessly to unseat the United States as the global hegemon, using the Chinese Communist Party as its greatest weapon of global information warfare,” the Tennessee Republican said.

The operations include Chinese infiltration of U.S. high education institutions, clandestine Chinese police stations in American cities, large-scale cyberespionage and subversion of critical U.S. supply chains, he said. Mr. Green said the activities demonstrate that Beijing is casting “an authoritarian shadow” on the United States and its allies.

Inside Zelenskyy's high-stakes White House visit

Former President Donald Trump meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Trump Tower, Sept. 27, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson) ** FILE **

Ahead of Mr. Zelenskyy’s arrival Friday, Mr. Trump is insisting that it is now or never to negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. Mr. Trump said at a joint press conference alongside British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Thursday that a deal to end the war would “happen fairly quickly or not happen at all.”

Mr. Trump brushed aside pleas by Mr. Starmer not to reward Mr. Putin with a peace deal. French President Emmanuel Macron visited Washington earlier in the week with similar pleas.

Mr. Zelenskyy’s visit Friday is expected to produce a minerals deal that Mr. Trump contends will give the U.S. companies access to Ukrainian precious metals as “payback” for the tens of billions of dollars in military and development aid from Washington since Russia invaded in early 2022.

It remains to be seen whether the minerals deal will accelerate peace talks, with Russia and China watching developments closely.

How Trump’s criticisms boosted Zelenskyy back home

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gestures during a news conference at a security summit in Kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, Feb. 24, 2025. (Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press via AP)

While Mr. Trump has claimed the Ukrainian leader’s domestic political standing has cratered, his very public criticisms have ironically boosted Mr. Zelenskyy’s support at home, with many Ukrainians hoping Mr. Zelenskyy will stand firm as he meets the U.S. president at the White House on Friday.

Threat Status Special Correspondent Guillaume Ptak examines the situation in a dispatch from Kyiv, where foreign policy and security analyst James Rushton says ordinary Ukrainians struggle to understand the Trump administration’s shift from “peace through strength” to what they see as “appeasement through weakness,” amid Mr. Trump’s diplomatic outreach to Russia over the past month.

Some Ukrainian supporters in the Republican Party are speaking up on Mr. Zelenskyy’s behalf. “There seems to be moral ambiguity when it comes to the responsibility for starting this war. Russia started it, not Ukraine,” Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska told Mr. Ptak in a telephone interview. “We stand on the side of what is right.”

Opinion: Shake up foreign aid, but don’t shoot it down

U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and Donald Trump illustration by Greg Groesch / The Washington Times

Mr. Trump closed the U.S. Agency for International Development and ordered a review of all foreign aid programs to ensure they were consistent with his “America First” foreign policy. However, in today’s interconnected, competitive and strife-torn world, Mr. Trump “should take this opportunity to increase, not decrease, U.S. engagement with other countries through reformed aid to keep America safe and prosperous,” writes Steven R. Galster.

“An obscure part of U.S. foreign policy I have participated in for the past 25 years reveals the benefits to America far beyond its focus: combating global nature crime,” writes Mr. Galster the founder and chairman of Freeland, a U.S. nonprofit that works globally to counter the trafficking of wildlife and people. “For 11 years, I was a ‘chief of party’ of a USAID program in Asia that established government policies and networks to confront rampant poaching and trafficking.

“We and other U.S. grantees have been doing more than saving animals, trees and coral reefs in faraway lands,” he writes. “We’ve been helping governments (including the U.S.) locate, disrupt and dismantle transnational criminal rings that are raking in more than $20 billion a year on wildlife trafficking and more than $300 billion annually when we add illegal logging and fishing.”

Opinion: The real problem with the Palestinians is that nobody wants them

Migration of Palestinians illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

The president has “suggested” that Egypt and Jordan provide temporary refuge to more than 1 million Palestinians, writes Washington Times Editor-at-Large David Keene, who notes that Mr. Trump “threatens foreign aid cutoffs and targeted tariffs if either country refuses, as both have vowed.”

“Since the current war began, as many as 150,000 Gaza Palestinians have legally and mostly illegally crossed the border into neighboring Egypt to join several hundred thousand others living and studying there,” writes Mr. Keene. “Many pay the Middle Eastern counterparts of the coyotes smuggling people over our southern border as much as $5,000 per person to get into Egypt despite that country’s efforts to choke off the migrant flood.

“Mr. Trump’s suggestion seems to make sense,” Mr. Keene writes. “Still, the nature of the refugees and the history countries of the region have had in dealing with Palestinian refugees make it unlikely that Egypt or Jordan will go along with him in the face of either threats or incentives.”

Threat Status Events Radar

March 3 — Reshaping the Middle East: A Conversation with Amjad Taha, Hudson Institute

March 4 — The Quantum Future: A Conversation with retired U.S. Navy Adm. Michael Rogers, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• March 4 — The Maduro Menace: A Conversation with María Corina Machado, Hudson Institute

• March 4 — How Terrorists Use the Internet and Online Networks for Recruitment, House Homeland Security Committee

• March 5 — Countering Threats Posed by the Chinese Communist Party to U.S. National Security, House Homeland Security Committee

March 5 — Protecting Maritime Security and Stability in the Indo-Pacific: Challenges for the United States and Japan, Wilson Center

March 5 — Investigating the Threat to U.S.-funded Research, House Science Committee

March 6 — Iran on the Brink: Resistance, Repression, and Global Power Shifts, Hudson Institute

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.