Threat Status for Tuesday, February 25, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang.
The U.S. and Europe are at odds on multiple fronts of the Ukraine-Russia war. President Trump sparred with French President Emmanuel Macron over how much money Europe has given Ukraine. At the United Nations, the U.S. split with major European and East Asian allies and opposed a resolution that explicitly blamed Russia for the conflict.
… There are conflicting reports about whether European powers are trying to secure their own deal with Ukraine to gain access to that country’s minerals and other natural resources, even as the Trump administration believes it’s close to its own agreement. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday also dangled significant rare earth and critical mineral resource deals inside Russia to U.S. buyers and investors if a peace deal is reached.
… It’s worth remembering that despite the direct U.S.-Russia negotiations, Moscow is simultaneously deepening its ties with American adversaries. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is in Iran today to discuss the two countries’ “comprehensive strategic partnership.” And Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated his country’s “no limits” partnership with Moscow during a call with Mr. Putin this week.
… Elon Musk is barreling ahead with his ultimatum for federal workers, even amid a power struggle with other officials in the Trump administration over his tactics.
… A delegation of European conservative leaders attended the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington this week and said Mr. Trump has inspired MAGA-style populist movements across the continent.
… Some top legal scholars are warning about the potential long-term fallout from the Trump administration’s request for new judge advocates general for the Army, Navy and Air Force.
… Nathan Gill, a far-right British politician, has been charged with accepting bribes to make favorable statements about Russia.
… And more than 1,000 British musicians have released a silent album to protest plans to allow AI to use their work.
There’s lots to unpack from Mr. Trump’s meeting with Mr. Macron. Just a week after he dispatched top U.S. officials to meet with a Russian delegation in Riyadh, Mr. Trump said the two sides are nearing an agreement that could end the Russia-Ukraine war, now in its fourth year.
“It looks like we are getting very close,” Mr. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. And he added that he expects Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to come to Washington soon to sign an amended minerals deal. Kyiv rejected Mr. Trump’s first offer, but the White House insists that the agreement will be reached.
For his part, Mr. Macron said that his country will shoulder a greater share of the financial burden in Ukraine. But the French leader also found himself threading a delicate needle. He insisted that he and Mr. Trump wanted to end the fighting but added, “We don’t want an agreement that is weak.”
“This peace must not mean a surrender of Ukraine,” he said. “It must not mean a ceasefire without guarantees. This peace must allow for Ukrainian sovereignty.”
Mr. Zelenskyy, during an address to a session of G7 leaders on Monday, insisted that his country must be at the table for the next round of negotiations between the U.S. and Russia.
National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz has a deep dive into the latest national security memorandum out of the White House, which orders the federal government to strengthen measures against Chinese investments in the U.S.
This is a significant step to chip away at Communist China’s systematic effort to deepen its footprint inside America. Specifically under the new directive, the Treasury Department-led Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, known as CFIUS, which reviews and can block foreign purchases of U.S. companies or land, is getting new powers to limit Chinese deals in the U.S., Mr. Gertz reports.
Chinese officials reacted angrily to the news. On Monday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said it had lodged “serious protests” with Washington.
Lest we forget why such steps may be necessary, Mr. Gertz offers a couple of examples: Chinese interests have been buying up American farmland in recent years in what analysts say is a campaign to protect China from future famines by ensuring food supplies. Beijing already owns the largest U.S. pork producer, Virginia-based Smithfield Foods, which it bought in 2013. And Chinese nationals currently own land near 19 U.S. military bases ranging from Florida to Hawaii.
It’s no secret that Mr. Trump and his national security team see Saudi Arabia as a vital player in their Middle East strategy. But the economic powerhouse is emerging as a mediator and influencer not only in Arab affairs, but in other international disputes as well.
Washington Times correspondents Jacob Wirtschafter and Waseem Abu Mahadi offer this in-depth dispatch from Cairo and examine how Mr. Trump, unlike his predecessor, is far more open to dealing directly with Saudi leaders. In many ways, it represents a case of whiplash for the Saudi government. One key development in Saudi Arabia’s arrival as a major global power player is that Jeddah is rumored to be the site of a future meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin.
But that’s not to say there won’t be tension between Washington and Riyadh in the months to come. A mini-Arab summit in the Saudi capital last week focused on the desperate situation in Gaza and Mr. Trump’s stunning proposal for an American takeover of the Palestinian enclave, a plan that has sparked fierce opposition across the Arab world.
Mr. Trump’s proposal to construct an “Iron Dome for America” missile shield is one of the most ambitious national security undertakings in decades. And the Space Force, barely into its sixth year as a military branch, will be a critical part of it.
Gen. Chance Saltzman, the Space Force’s chief of space operations, said this week that the service has already created an integrated planning team, or IPT, to begin looking at options to develop the U.S. Iron Dome.
“I think we have a central role to play. We are leaning forward establishing this technical IPT to start thinking about it from an overarching perspective,” Gen. Saltzman said Monday.
Mr. Trump last month signed an executive order to establish the system. While it’s named after the famed Israeli system, the U.S. version of the Iron Dome would focus on blocking cruise, ballistic and even hypersonic weapons from China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and other adversaries. The Israeli system primarily fends off shorter-range mortar and rocket attacks.
Threat Status has been tracking the issue and offered this deep dive into the timeline, projected costs and technical details associated with the proposal.
It rarely gets the media coverage devoted to the Russia-Ukraine war or China’s increasingly provocative actions in the Pacific. But in 21st-century great-power competition, the Arctic has emerged as a strategic battleground — and Alaska is the key to American victory.
Bob Griffin, a Future49 board member and former Air Force pilot whose family has lived in Alaska since 1899, makes that case in a new op-ed for The Times. He writes that the warming Arctic Sea opens up a world of opportunity for whichever nation can capitalize first, though the U.S. hasn’t moved fast enough in the face of aggressive steps by Beijing and Moscow to strengthen their positions in the region.
“In practical terms, a mother lode of natural and mineral resources in the region is becoming increasingly accessible, as are potential trade routes that can be forged through once-unnavigable waters,” he says.
“We may be behind in this race, but we don’t have to stay there,” he writes. “The good news is that Alaska is America’s foothold in this critical competition for our prosperity and security, and we’re open for business. We have 49 critical minerals, and our workforce has the technical know-how and experience to develop these further. As the Trump administration nullifies the anti-energy and anti-business regulations of the previous administration, as more investment comes in and more wealth creation results from it, Alaska and America will benefit together.”
• Feb. 27 — How should Europe step up for Ukraine? Atlantic Council
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