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Threat Status for Friday, February 14, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

Is Ukraine’s path to NATO membership dead or not? That’s one of the key questions hanging over the Munich Security Conference, which kicked off today and will serve as the backdrop for a high-stakes meeting between Vice President J.D. Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

… Amid President Trump’s push to end the Russia-Ukraine war, there are mixed signals everywhere about Kyiv’s possible future in NATO. This week, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth indicated NATO membership for Ukraine was off the table as part of peace negotiations. He then seemed to walk that back, saying that “everything is on the table.”

… British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told Mr. Zelenskyy today that Ukraine is still on an “irreversible path” to NATO membership. And an unnamed U.S. official told Reuters that Ukraine’s potential NATO membership is, in fact, still alive

… The war itself is still raging. Mr. Zelenskyy said a Russian drone strike hit the protective containment shell of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. Russian officials denied involvement. So far, radiation levels at the plant have not increased.

… Here are photos of the damage sustained by the USS Harry S. Truman after a collision with a merchant ship near Port Said, Egypt, earlier this week.

… Mr. Trump says the U.S. will increase military sales to India, possibly even providing the world’s largest democracy with F-35 stealth fighter jets.

… Sales of Canadian flags are reportedly skyrocketing amid Mr. Trump’s threatened tariffs on Canadian goods and talk of making Canada the 51st U.S. state. 

… Defense firm Northrop Grumman won two U.S. Army contracts worth almost $1.4 billion to deploy advanced air and missile defense systems in Poland. 

… And the president signed an executive order Thursday calling for new reciprocal tariffs on friendly and rival nations alike. 

Hegseth's 'rookie mistake' on Ukraine?

United States Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, center, speaks with Germany's Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, right, and Finland's Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen, left, during a meeting of the North Atlantic Council in defense ministers format at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Thursday, Feb. 13, 2025. (AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert)

There’s one more angle to unpack here on the confusion swirling around Ukraine and its future in NATO, and whether Kyiv must surrender its own territory to Russia as part of any deal: Is this entire ordeal just a “rookie mistake” by Mr. Hegseth, the TV host-turned-defense secretary who has only been on the job for a few weeks?

That’s apparently the conclusion of Sen. Roger Wicker, chairman of the powerful Senate Armed Services Committee. On the sidelines of the Munich summit, he told Politico that Mr. Hegseth’s comments resembled something that a “fool” might say.

“Hegseth is going to be a great defense secretary, although he wasn’t my choice for the job,” the Mississippi Republican said. “But he made a rookie mistake in Brussels and he’s walked back some of what he said” earlier this week.

Mr. Wicker went on to say that Mr. Hegseth’s speech was “the kind of thing Tucker Carlson could have written, and Carlson is a fool.”

Here is what Mr. Hegseth said Wednesday: “The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.”

A day later, he said this: “I would say I want to be clear about something as it pertains to NATO membership not being [a] realistic outcome for negotiations. That’s something that was stated as part of my remarks here as part of a coordination with how we’re executing these ongoing negotiations, which are led by President Trump … Everything is on the table in his conversations with Vladimir Putin and Zelenskyy.”

For what it’s worth, there are plenty of foreign policy analysts who do believe Ukraine joining NATO is a pipe dream.

China practicing for attacks against U.S. targets

E-2D Hawkeye (Courtesy of U.S. Navy)

National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz has an in-depth report on troubling news from China, where the People’s Liberation Army appears to be practicing attacks on U.S. electronic warfare planes and aircraft carriers.

A new report from the private intelligence company Allsource Analysis includes satellite images from Xinjiang province in western China. Those images show two mockups of what appear to be U.S. E-2 Hawkeye airborne warning and control aircraft. Other warplanes have been spotted as targets in the past, but not the E-2, which is a critical command-and-control aircraft for coordinating aircraft carrier strikes, Mr. Gertz reports.

The new information again demonstrates that China appears to be making serious preparations for a potential clash with American naval forces, perhaps as part of its long-feared invasion of the island democracy of Taiwan. U.S. naval forces are expected to play key roles in defending allies in the region from Chinese military attacks, including Taiwan. 

And this isn’t the first time China has conducted simulations of attacks on American military assets. Earlier satellite images taken in April by the same company show mockups of 20 aircraft on a simulated runway, including six models that appear to be F-22s, an advanced U.S. stealth fighter bomber. The pictures also show apparent scorch marks and craters where bombing runs or missile strikes were suspected. F-35 mockups also have been spotted in the desert area.

Exclusive: Republican lawmaker presses DHS on terror threats from Syria

Syria's de facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, walks in the presidential palace ahead of his meeting with Walid Ellafi, Libyan minister of state for communication and political affairs, in Damascus, Dec. 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Mosa'ab Elshamy, File)

The Washington Times’ Lindsey McPherson is tracking the latest developments on the terror threat from Syria and growing fears on Capitol Hill and in national security circles that the chaos there could directly impact the U.S.

Ms. McPherson has an exclusive story on new legislation put forward by Rep. Morgan Luttrell, Texas Republican, that would require the Department of Homeland Security to assess the threat posed by individuals in Syria with ties to terrorist groups. The proposed Syria Terrorism Threat Assessment Act comes two months after a rebel alliance toppled the government of longtime Syrian dictator Bashar Assad.

There are multiple terrorism angles to consider here. Inside the Pentagon, there are fears that a weak central government in Damascus could open the door for a resurgence of the Islamic State. And what’s more, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamist group that once had ties to al Qaeda and is listed by the U.S. government as a terrorist organization, led the rebel offensive to overthrow Assad. An HTS leader is now the de facto head of the new government in Syria.

TikTok is back on the App Store, Google Play

People work inside the TikTok Inc. building in Culver City, Calif., on March 11, 2024. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes, File)

TikTok made a return to the most popular app stores in the U.S. on Thursday night, ending a short-lived absence that began last month when Big Tech firms Apple and Google removed the app to comply with a U.S. law.

Lead Tech Correspondent Ryan Lovelace has been all over this story and has the latest details

Apple’s and Google’s decision to allow TikTok back into their marketplaces comes amid Mr. Trump’s efforts to delay enforcement of a federal ban on the app. Hours after assuming office last month, Mr. Trump took action designed to delay the ban from taking effect while he looked to help broker a new ownership structure for TikTok, which is currently owned by the China-based company ByteDance.

Critics say the current ownership structure gives the Chinese communist government direct power over TikTok and, in turn, access to Americans’ data. And, they say, it also allows Beijing to promote its own preferred narratives to huge U.S. audiences.

TikTok announced the move in a brief press release Thursday night.

Threat Status Events Radar

• Feb. 14-16 — Munich Security Conference, MSC 2025

• Feb. 17-21 — International Defense Exhibition and Conference (IDEX) 2025, United Arab Emirates

Feb. 18 — The role of AI in transforming Saudi Arabia’s economic landscape, Atlantic Council 

• Feb. 19 — Globalizing perspectives on AI safety, Brookings Institution

• Feb. 26 — 2025 Defense Software & Data Summit, Govini

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