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Threat Status for Wednesday, February 12, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

President Trump is hosting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House for a high-stakes summit with the leader of the world’s most populous democracy, a key U.S. strategic partner that has so far been spared by Mr. Trump’s tariff campaign.

… Sources tell Threat Status Mr. Modi hopes the president will give him a pass despite his refusal to join in Western condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

… Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is at NATO headquarters pushing European allies to increase defense spending and share more of the Ukraine aid burden. Mr. Hegseth separately says he’d welcome Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) analysts at the Pentagon.

… Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is threatening to resume military operations in Gaza if Hamas misses Saturday’s hostage release deadline.

… A World Food Program employee has died in Yemen while being held captive by Iran-backed Houthi militants.

… The two NASA astronauts stranded on the International Space Station will return to Earth weeks earlier than expected.

… And a slew of high-level U.S. military officials, including Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy A. George and Army Futures Command Commander Gen. James E. Rainey, are slated to speak at the defense software company Govini’s major summit in Washington later this month.

Inside the threat of China-controlled ports in the Western Hemisphere

A container is lifted by a crane backdropped by the construction of the Chinese-funded port, in Chancay, Peru, Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024. (AP Photo/Guadalupe Pardo)

China’s extensive network of commercial ports near the U.S. poses significant security threats, a panel of analysts — including intelligence and Defense Department official Matthew Kroenig and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace China analyst Isaac Kardon — told the House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Transportation and Maritime Security on Tuesday.

Mr. Kroenig, now with the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center, testified that “Washington and regional states should work together to decouple from Chinese investments in ports and other areas critical to national security,” asserting that Chinese-managed port facilities at either end of the Panama Canal are facilitating the shipment of deadly fentanyl into the United States.

Mr. Kardon said U.S. officials have seen limited Chinese warship visits to the region, and the major dangers are China’s use of the ports for intelligence gathering and surveillance and the potential disruption of shipping operations in a crisis. The hearing followed recent comments by Mr. Trump claiming that China has effectively taken control of the Panama Canal from Panama and that the U.S. plans to take it back.

Pentagon says it killed ISIS 'external operations' leader in Somalia

This photo provided by U.S. Africa Command, the U.S. military conducts coordinated airstrikes against Islamic State operatives in Somalia on Saturday, Feb. 1, 2025. (U.S. Africa Command via AP)

U.S. military officials say the wave of American airstrikes that hit targets in the Horn of Africa nation of Somalia on Feb. 1 were carried out “in coordination” with that country’s federal government and succeeded in killing approximately 14 Islamic State-Somalia operatives without harming any civilians.

A statement Tuesday by the Pentagon’s Africa Command said that “among those killed was Ahmed Maeleninine, a key ISIS recruiter, financier and external operations leader responsible for the deployment of jihadists into the United States and across Europe.”

The Somalia strikes marked the first major American operation against terrorist groups abroad since Mr. Trump took office on Jan. 20. The strikes, which signaled that the global war against ISIS is continuing into the Trump era, came in the wake of repeated warnings from Republicans on the House Homeland Security Committee that the threat matrix emanating from ISIS and al Qaeda is “blinking red.”

Russia says prisoner swap at play in Marc Fogel release

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks on the phone with a girl from the Moscow region, as part of a Christmas charity campaign in St. Petersburg, Russia, Dec. 26, 2024. (Alexander Kazakov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP) **FILE**

The Kremlin said Wednesday it expects a Russian citizen detained in the U.S. will be returned in the “coming days” as part of the deal that secured American teacher Marc Fogel’s release, but has not provided details on the individual’s identity.

Mr. Fogel was arrested on charges of bringing medical marijuana into Russia in August 2021. He was classified as wrongly detained by the Biden administration last year. The White House said this week that Mr. Trump and Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff negotiated “an exchange that serves as a show of good faith from the Russians and a sign we are moving in the right direction to end the brutal and terrible war in Ukraine.”

However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested late Tuesday that there was no swap agreement: “I think it’s also important to note [Mr. Vogel’s release] was not in return for anything,” he said during an appearance on NewsNation. “There wasn’t some deal here where we had to release, like, 10 spies.”

Opinion: A bold approach for dealing with North Korea

Diplomatic engagement between North Korea and the United States of America illustration by Linas Garsys / The Washington Times

The “absence of diplomatic engagement with North Korea during the past four years has resulted in a more belligerent North Korea, now more aligned with Russia and China,” writes Joseph R. DeTrani, a former senior U.S. intelligence official and opinion contributor to Threat Status.

“Those who disagree will say we tried, but we ignored North Korea, hoping that a policy of ‘containment and deterrence’ would suffice. Well, it didn’t,” writes Mr. DeTrani.

“North Korea will see value in having a meaningful dialogue with the U.S. if it realizes it is dealing with a Trump administration that is bold and flexible,” he writes, adding that “engaging boldly and flexibly now with North Korea would get the attention of Russia and China, both concerned that North Korea would prefer a normal relationship with the U.S. over an alliance with the North’s two neighbors.”

Opinion: Are Arab rulers with or against America?

Arab leaders in Middle East with or against the United States of America illustration by Linas Garsys / The Washington Times

More than 6 million Syrians fled their homeland during that country’s almost 14-year-long civil war. Other nations took them in. It was the humanitarian thing to do, fulfilling their obligation under international law, writes Threat Status opinion contributor Clifford D. May.

“Since Hamas initiated a full-blown war against Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, hardly any residents of the Gaza Strip have managed to flee because no countries — not even Egypt, whose Sinai Peninsula borders Gaza — were willing to take them in,” writes Mr. May. “Was that because the value of Gaza’s civilians as Hamas’ ‘human shields’ — sacrificial pawns in the jihad against Israel — overrode humanitarian and legal concerns?”

“Before the conflict, it could be credibly argued that ‘the Palestinian cause’ could be achieved with the creation of a Palestinian state,” he writes. “It’s now become obvious that, for Hamas and its supporters, the Palestinian cause is and always has been the extermination of Israel, the resurrected Jewish homeland, a tiny island amid an ocean of Arab and Muslim states.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• Feb. 12 — Nuuk and Cranny: Looking at the Arctic and Greenland’s Geostrategic Importance to U.S. Interests, Senate Commerce Committee

• Feb. 13 — The Future of the Panama Canal, Wilson Center

• Feb. 14-16 — Munich Security Conference, MSC 2025

• Feb. 17-21 — International Defense Exhibition and Conference (IDEX) 2025, United Arab Emirates

• Feb. 18 — The Role of AI in Transforming Saudi Arabia’s Economic Landscape, Atlantic Council 

• Feb. 19 — Globalizing Perspectives on AI Safety, Brookings Institution

• Feb. 26 — 2025 Defense Software and Data Summit, Govini

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.