When you start a war, you can never be certain how effectively the other side will fight back.
And we’re not talking about Iran.
President Trump‘s mission to pick up Republican House seats in a mid-decade redistricting of red states now looks to be a wash, at best. At worst, Mr. Trump has picked a fight that could result in a net gain of seats for Democrats in November.
Virginia Democrats succeeded in their referendum to redraw the state’s 11 congressional districts. If it survives legal challenges, the new map would likely result in a pickup of four seats for Democrats.
Virginia will be the most gerrymandered state in the nation, with just one GOP House district, instead of the current 6-5 split in favor of Democrats. In the 2024 presidential election, Democrat Kamala Harris defeated Mr. Trump by 52% to 46%, a split roughly reflected in the state’s current U.S. House delegation.
This partisan redistricting warfare started with Mr. Trump’s seemingly simple demand last year for Texas Republicans to redraw the state’s congressional map. They did, picking up as many as five seats for the GOP and sending Mr. Trump on his way to avoiding the midterm losses that traditionally bedevil the party holding the White House.
Or so he thought. The other side has responded powerfully.
In California, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom quickly led an effort to redraw the state’s congressional districts, picking up enough Democratic seats to wipe out the GOP’s expected gains in Texas.
And now Virginia is adding to the Democrats’ total.
A state judge blocked certification of Virginia’s new map, but Democratic state Attorney General Jay Jones is appealing the ruling. The redistricting issues will likely end up in the Virginia Supreme Court, which has sided with Democrats on such matters.
Other states have yet to act. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, is calling for a special legislative session to redistrict in favor of the GOP. And the U.S. Supreme Court has yet to rule in a major voting-rights case that could affect congressional maps in several other states.
Newly elected Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, once an opponent of gerrymandering congressional districts, defended the proposed lopsided map in her state as a response to GOP gerrymandering maps in other states.
The “redistricting referendum is about one thing: President Trump’s power grab,” she said.
Republicans were significantly outspent by Democrats ahead of Virginia’s referendum as Democrats dumped tens of millions of dollars into advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts.
Much of the money came from a super PAC associated with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, New York Democrat.
Mr. Jeffries would likely become speaker if Democrats win control of the House in November.
And that result would be 180 degrees from what Mr. Trump envisioned when he embarked on his redistricting crusade last summer.