OPINION:
The news at the end of last week that employment actually fell by 92,000 in February underscored the strong possibility that November may bring difficult midterm elections for Republicans.
As the Republicans think about how best to approach that challenge, it would probably behoove them to reflect on the truth that any single element of their coalition might make the difference between a relatively productive final two years of President Trump’s tenure and endless show trials, oversight hearings and impeachments of administration officials, up to and including Mr. Trump.
They have lots of constituencies to worry about: Whites, Blacks, Hispanics, suburbanites, farmers, the overeducated, the undereducated, men and women, the young and the old.
Let’s focus on the older folks for a moment. In 2016, Mr. Trump won voters 65 and older by 7 percentage points. In 2020, he won that same cohort by 5 points. In 2024, he won that cohort again, but this time by just a single point. That, obviously, suggests erosion in his support among seniors. Team Trump needs to avoid any further deterioration.
The good news is that Mr. Trump seems to have found solid ground among those 65 and older.
A survey released at the end of January by Seniors Matter for America (interviews with 1,000 likely voters and an additional 200 seniors, spread across 19 congressional districts, and with a margin of error of 2.8%) indicated the president’s focus on affordability, honoring the promises made to American seniors and some of the tax provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act are, not surprisingly, popular with those older than 65.
The survey found that:
• President Trump is net plus-4 percentage points in approval among seniors.
• Some 67% of respondents and 71% of those older than 65 support the elimination of taxes on Social Security.
• Not surprisingly, 76% support the $6,000 tax exemption for seniors encoded in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
• About 81% support lowering drug costs by giving seniors direct access to the best available prices.
• Approximately 62% of voters support Medicare and Medicare Advantage.
• Some 64% of seniors (and 53% of all those surveyed) oppose a government-run, single-payer system that eliminates private insurance.
None of those results is particularly groundbreaking, but taken together, they suggest an electoral path forward for the administration and the Republicans with respect to seniors. When the campaigns turn their attention to seniors, they need to focus on Mr. Trump’s record of eliminating Social Security taxes and working to embed the $6,000 senior exemption in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and they need to remind voters of drug cost reforms.
The survey results suggest that such an approach can help carry them across the finish line in November.
It is important to reflect on what will be at stake in the campaign. The simple and terrible reality of the elections in November is that control of the House, which will be essential in finishing the work this administration has set out to accomplish, will probably come down to about 100,000 votes spread out among perhaps 20 congressional districts.
Every one of those will be important, and consequently, the Republicans need to be precise with their actions, messages and delivery. The alternative is not particularly appealing.
• Michael McKenna is a contributing editor at The Washington Times.
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