China military rapidly expands undersea warfare power

NEWS AND ANALYSIS:

China’s military is expanding its submarine warfare forces with multiple new submarines and drone weapons that threaten America’s undersea advantage, senior Navy officers disclosed this week.

Rear Adm. Mike Brookes, intelligence director at the Navy’s National Maritime Intelligence-Integration Office, said during a congressional hearing that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army is seeking to dominate the undersea warfare domain and in the coming years could pose a credible threat to America’s submarine advantage.

“PLA navy submarine modernization, rising threats to undersea infrastructure, and the push for deep-sea resources are part of a broader effort to expand China’s power and influence,” Adm. Brookes testified to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

“By 2040, the PLA navy’s undersea forces may credibly challenge U.S. regional maritime dominance, complicating crisis response, power projection, and allied defense.”

The submarine warfare buildup includes one of the world’s largest underwater fleets with over 60 submarines. New submarine capabilities include six nuclear-powered attack submarines as an “offensive backbone” of the PLA and at least two nuclear-powered guided missile submarines for precision strike.

Beijing’s six nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines provide nuclear deterrence.

More than 50 diesel-electric submarines include modern Yuan- and Song-class vessels with air-independent propulsion allowing greater stealth.

“China has dramatically increased its domestic submarine production capacity through major

infrastructure investments at three primary shipyards, accelerating production from less than one

nuclear submarine per year to significantly higher rates,” Adm. Brooke said.

The investments in new shipyards have more than doubled China’s submarine production capacity and appear to align the PLA navy with force expansion through the 2030s and beyond, he said.

Vice Adm. Richard Seif, commander of Navy submarine forces, testified at the hearing that China is seeking to erode the American submarine warfare advantage that has enabled the U.S. to operate underwater with stealth, persistence and survivability capabilities unmatched by surface and air forces.

“This advantage helps prevent conflict by raising uncertainty for potential aggressors’ ability to achieve their military and political objectives and ensuring unacceptable losses to their military forces,” Adm. Seif said. “China is working to erode this advantage through rapid growth and modernization of its submarine force, expanding anti-submarine warfare capacity and investments in seabed sensing and networked surveillance in key maritime approaches.”

Beijing’s military is working to create what the three-star admiral said is an “underwater Great Wall” of fixed and mobile sensors, unmanned systems and data fusion designed detect-and-track submarines in strategic locales.

“The likely effect is not ’transparency’ of the undersea environment, but a narrowing of the stealth margin — particularly near chokepoints, operating areas and approaches that matter most in crisis and conflict,” Adm. Seif said.

Adm. Seif said U.S. submarines’ are the military’s most survivable systems and can operate for extended periods without being detected. This allows the underwater weapons to remain in contested areas without the risk that other U.S. forces would face.

The submarine presence “provides military and civilian decision-makers with more time and information and complicates an adversary’s planning by introducing uncertainty about how U.S. forces may be positioned to respond to their actions,” he said.

For Taiwan, the submarines can provide unmatched power projection by hitting both sea and land targets without the risk faced by other forces.

“In a crisis, access to forward bases may be contested, air and surface routes may be threatened, and visible force packages may be politically escalatory,” Adm. Seif said. “Submarines offer an option set that is both credible and resilient and enable combat actions at a time of our choosing.”

Unless U.S. advantages are maintained, China could threaten U.S. submarine power in key areas and undermine the credibility of American forces to intervene in a conflict.

“Any perceived erosion of U.S. undersea freedom of action may alter China’s risk calculus and embolden them to pursue their strategic objectives,” Adm. Seif warned. He called for preserving the U.S. undersea advantages by increasing submarine production and maintenance capabilities.

Large deployments of unmanned underwater weapons systems also is needed, he said.

“The future submarine force will be a force comprised of manned submarines and robotic and autonomous systems,” he said.

The military also needs more undersea missiles and torpedoes, he said.

“The objective is not to seek conflict for its own sake, but to ensure that China’s leaders do not miscalculate the United States’ capability or will to respond in a contingency,” he said.

Commission Vice Chair Michael Kuiken said during the hearing that Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered the PLA to make submarine forces the lead military service.

China is accelerating deployment of nuclear-powered submarines and deployed 10 new submarines in the past five years, compared to three submarines in the previous five years, he said.

Senate leader confronts Pentagon policy chief on strategy flaws

Sen. Roger Wicker, powerful chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, criticized the Pentagon’s new defense strategy during a hearing with the chief defense policymaker and outlined several “flaws” in the new defense doctrine.

Elbridge Colby, undersecretary of defense for policy, told a committee hearing Tuesday that deterring China is now a second tier priority under the new national defense strategy as part of the Trump administration’s greater focus on defending the U.S. homeland and the Western Hemisphere.

Mr. Colby said in testimony to the committee that the new strategy is limited in seeking a favorable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region while avoiding confrontation or regime change in Beijing.

The U.S. goal is to protect markets and defend fair trade while preventing China from dominating the region, he said.

“As a result, our strategy there is to deter China through strength, not confrontation,” Mr. Coby said.

Mr. Colby said China is in the midst of an extraordinary military buildup, but that administration’s new strategy makes clear the United States does not seek conflict with Beijing.

“To the contrary, we seek to avoid it. We make clear that our interests with respect to China are scoped and reasonable — we do not seek to strangle China nor compel a change in its form of government,” he said. “Rather, we seek to prevent China from becoming the hegemon of the Indo-Pacific.”

The strategy calls for what Mr. Colby said is a “denial defense” near Taiwan and north and south of the self-ruled island.

Mr. Wicker criticized the new strategy for what he indicated were shortcomings that include a failure to clearly identify the need to defend Taiwan from the growing threat of Chinese aggression.

“Principally, I believe this strategy document fails to acknowledge the global nature of the threat posed by the axis of aggressors working together,” Mr. Wicker said.

The strategy specifically lacks recommendations for dealing with the China-led group of adversaries that includes Russia, Iran and North Korea.

On China, Mr. Wicker said the strategy “obfuscates the threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party, and they are our pacing threat.”

While mentioning deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, the strategy fails to directly confront the threat posed to Taiwan, the chairman said, noting Taiwan is not mentioned in the strategy. By contrast, a companion White House national security strategy mentioned clearly the danger faced by Taiwan, he said.

“This equivocation has real consequences as it risks misinterpretation of U.S. support for this island’s democracy,” Mr. Wicker said. “This perception is furthered by our failure to execute previously authorized and appropriated assistance to Taiwan. Authorized and appropriated by the Congress and signed into law.”

Mr. Colby said in response that the recently announced arms package for Taiwan worth about $11.5 billion is an indication of continued U.S. backing.

Commander’s war message: History will be changed

Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of the U.S. Central Command that is leading forces in the conflict against Iran, delivered a powerful message to the command’s more than 40,000 troops in the Middle East in announcing the operation he said will change the course of history.

The four-star admiral said Saturday that the massed forces of U.S. warships and warplanes were about to embark on a mission of profound consequence.

“Since 1979, the Iranian Regime has killed and wounded thousands of Americans, and they continue to threaten Americans and our friends,” Adm. Cooper said, noting the time for preparation was over and the time for action had arrived.

“Today, by your courage and grit, you will change the course of human history,” he said.

The commander’s guidance for the forces urged the warfighting to “be relentlessly lethal.”

“In the heat of conflict, remember who you are. Let your conduct be as professional as your aim is precise,” he said.

Also, CENTCOM troops must take care of their fellow soldiers, airman, sailors, guardians and Marines, Adm. Cooper said.

Also, the forces must be steady in their resolve.

“Combat is inherently chaotic,” he said. “The hours, days and perhaps weeks ahead will challenge you. There will be noise and confusion. Fall back on your training. It is the best in the world.”

The note ended by asserting that the U.S. troops are the “shield of the free world, and today, you are its sharpest sword.

“As the eyes of the world fix upon us, stay safe, and GODSPEED.”

During a video update on the operation on Tuesday, Adm. Cooper said the military attacks on Iran are relentless.

“And we continue with 24/7 strikes into Iran from seabed to space and cyberspace,” he said, noting that nearly 2,000 targets were hit with more than 2,000 bombs and missiles.

“In simple terms, we’re focused on shooting all the things that can shoot at us.”