Battle for Texas Senate seat hinges on Republican runoff and a Trump endorsement

The fate of a U.S. Senate seat in Texas likely rests on a May 26 GOP runoff between four-term Republican incumbent John Cornyn and the state’s ultra-conservative attorney general, Ken Paxton.

President Trump announced Wednesday that he plans to weigh in on the critical race after neither of the GOP candidates, both Trump allies, crossed the 50% threshold to win the primary outright on Tuesday.

Mr. Trump said he’ll endorse one of the candidates “soon” and called for the nonendorsed candidate to drop out to avert a brutal and costly Republican runoff battle and instead allow the party to focus on defeating the Democrat challenger, state Rep. James Talarico.

“We have to beat the Radical Left Opponent and we have to TOTALLY FOCUS on putting him away quickly and decisively,” Mr. Trump said on Truth Social. “Both John and Ken ran great races but not good enough. Now, this one must be PERFECT.”

Democrats think a GOP runoff gives them a head start on their quest to flip the seat.

They see momentum behind Mr. Talarico, a former teacher and ex-seminarian who ran on economic populism.

He defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary on Tuesday.

Democrats say Mr. Talarico’s 7-point victory over Ms. Crockett and high turnout among party voters in the primary create an opportunity in November to flip the Senate seat for the first time since 1993.

“In ruby-red states, voters showed up in numbers you rarely see in a primary,” said Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer, New York Democrat, on Wednesday. “People are fed up with Donald Trump and congressional Republicans.”

Mr. Cornyn’s finish on Tuesday breathed new life into his fight for political survival.

He came out ahead of Mr. Paxton, 41.9% to 40.7%, exceeding expectations and weeks of polling that showed him lagging several points behind his GOP challenger.

The Democrats’ Senate campaign quickly posted a campaign ad labeling the Republican runoff “a clown car” fight between “scandal-plagued” Mr. Paxton and “floundering incumbent” Mr. Cornyn.

Democrats are hoping to ride a wave of anti-Trump backlash to victory. It’s considered a long shot. Mr. Trump won Texas in three consecutive elections by double digits.

Limited polling so far shows Mr. Talarico, 36, trailing slightly in hypothetical matchups between either Mr. Cornyn or Mr. Paxton. Democrats say they’ll stand the best chance of winning if Mr. Paxton, a hard-line MAGA conservative with a trail of personal and legal troubles, is on the ticket.

Those backing Mr. Cornyn’s reelection bid agree and are hoping Mr. Trump will endorse the incumbent now that he’s defied expectations among Texas voters.

Cornyn backers say he’s the best candidate to keep the seat in GOP hands.

Mr. Cornyn outperformed expectations in some of the rural areas where Mr. Trump’s MAGA base is the heaviest, trailing Mr. Paxton by only a few points in many of those precincts. Mr. Cornyn trounced Mr. Paxton in key urban and suburban voting districts, including Dallas County and Travis County outside of Austin, showing strength in districts that will be critical to deciding the winner.

Cornyn campaign insiders predicted the runoff turnout will be high, which they said will benefit their candidate because it will bring a broader cross-section of GOP voters to the polls.

Mr. Cornyn can also rely on “a massive resource advantage” over Mr. Paxton, a memo from campaign aides said.

Mr. Cornyn, 74, the former Republican whip, heavily outspent Mr. Paxton with his well-funded campaign war chest. He continued to outraise his opponents in the most recent fundraising quarter.

Mr. Paxton, 63, the latest FEC records show, has about $3.9 million in cash on hand. Mr. Cornyn has nearly $5 million.

Mr. Cornyn and groups backing his campaign spent $70 million in the primary on advertising, compared to $4 million spent by Mr. Paxton and his backers.

Their resource advantage, Cornyn campaign aides said, will be used “for the education of Texas voters into Ken Paxton’s myriad misdeeds.”

Mr. Paxton has served as Texas attorney general for a decade and, along the way, was impeached by the Texas House, indicted on three felony charges of state securities fraud and accused of marital infidelity that led his wife of 38 years to file for divorce.

He’s also accused of firing four top deputies who reported allegations of corruption to the FBI. The firings resulted in litigation and a subsequent $6.6 million judgment against the state that taxpayers must pay for.

Cornyn campaign aides said their candidate would have won the primary outright if not for “spoiler” Rep. Wesley Hunt, a Republican representing the greater Houston area who scooped up 13.5% of the vote.

Mr. Paxton, during his primary night speech, said Mr. Cornyn would attempt to “steal” the runoff election by outspending him.

Mr. Paxton touted his longtime loyalty to Mr. Trump and said he’s running to defeat an incumbent who hasn’t accomplished anything during his decades in the Senate.

“You cannot name a single accomplishment that he’s done to help the state of Texas,” Mr. Paxton said. “Without fail, everywhere I go, no one has an answer.”

Democrats are reveling in the prolonged GOP infighting, which will give Mr. Talarico a three-month head start on winning over general election voters. He’s cast himself as an underdog who will fight against corruption “and win power back for working people.”

Early voter turnout showed 1.33 million Democrats cast early ballots, compared with 1.1 million Republicans.

“This is proof that there is something happening in Texas,” Mr. Talarico said in his victory speech. “The people of our state gave this country a little bit of hope. And a little bit of hope is a dangerous thing.”