The exodus of Californians is driven by the cost of living, according to a study released Tuesday by University of California, Berkeley’s California Policy Lab.
“The price tag has gone up on the California Dream, and many families are leaving the state for more affordable places,” the lab’s executive director, Evan White, who helped write the report, said in a statement. “The difference these moves make is stark. Their destination neighborhoods are half as expensive and they end up much more likely to own a home within just a few years.”
Residents who leave are relocating to neighborhoods with housing costs that are nearly half of what they would pay in California, at $672 lower per month. Those who leave are increasingly from higher-income neighborhoods, having increased from 34% to 40% since the pandemic.
Is the cost to live in the Golden State losing its luster? Nearly 150,000 more people left it than arrived last year, the lab reported.
After seven years, former Californians are almost 50% likelier to own a home than their peers who stayed in the state, according to the study.
Housing costs for the least expensive Golden State communities are higher than in most other areas in the U.S., the report found. Groceries are 11% more expensive, gas 40% more and utilities 61% higher in California.
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If California’s net loss in population continues, the report warns, the implications for its tax base and national political clout could be “severe.”
Departures coupled with fewer arrivals drove the population decline. Between 2020 and 2025, 42 states sent fewer people to California than before the pandemic.
High costs for essentials also discourage out-of-staters from moving to California. Instead, Californians are disproportionately migrating to neighboring states such as Nevada, Arizona, Washington and Oregon, or further transplant locations such as Texas and Florida, and even Idaho.
The state’s constant risk of wildfires, storms, earthquakes and drought, visible homeless population and Democratic policies are not the foremost concern. Economic insecurity is, the study found.
Mr. White cited Proposition 13, a 1978 measure that limited property tax increases, letting homes be revalued and property taxes raised after a home is sold.
“New homeowners are paying really high property taxes, whereas folks who have owned their home for 20 or 30 years are paying very low property taxes,” he said. “With two neighbors, the person who’s lived in their home for a short time might be paying 10 or sometimes 20 times what their neighbor is paying.”
• Mary McCue Bell can be reached at mbell@washingtontimes.com.
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