Republicans get surprise opening in California governor’s race

It has been two decades since left-leaning California had a Republican governor, but the slate of Democrats running in the November election is falling flat with voters, creating a surprise opening for the long-sidelined Republican Party.

Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco lead in the polls ahead of a June 2 primary in which the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, will move on to the general election.

In other words, deep-blue California may not have a Democrat on the November ballot for governor.

It’s a stunning development politically. It makes sense, however, to political analysts who point to deep discontent among California voters. They are fed up with the state’s high taxes and energy costs, government misspending and the incompetent response to natural disasters such as the Palisades fire of 2025, which destroyed entire communities that, more than a year later, remain mostly rubble. It all has come under the leadership of Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat who is ineligible to run for a third term.

Mr. Hilton said in an interview with The Washington Times that he is not surprised the polls have him leading the Democrats, who have been running California for the past 16 years.

“It just shows what a disastrous job they’ve done. And people are sick of it, and they want change, which is what I’ve always been arguing,” Mr. Hilton said. “People always say California is so deep blue, but it’s not. The people are really suffering. Everything is the most expensive in the country, the highest cost of living, the highest poverty rate, the highest unemployment rate. The schools are a disaster, the homeless crisis is as bad as it ever was and getting worse in many areas. It’s a total failure. And after 16 years of one-party rule, what have they got to say? Nothing.”

So far, the top Democrats running to succeed Mr. Newsom — Rep. Eric Swalwell, former Rep. Katie Porter, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former state Attorney General Xavier Becerra, billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa — aren’t exactly winning over prospective voters.

An Evitarus poll, funded by California Democrats and conducted March 12-17, found Mr. Swalwell, Ms. Porter and Mr. Steyer tied, with the support of just 10% of likely voters. Mr. Becerra, Mr. Mahan and Mr. Villaraigosa were tied with a measly 3% apiece.

Mr. Hilton, a businessman and former Fox News host, and Mr. Bianco, the sheriff of Riverside County, finished on top but earned only 16% and 14% of the vote, respectively.

State Democratic leaders released the poll to nudge the lowest-polling Democrats to drop out and to push voters to coalesce around the leading candidates.

“It’s yet another clear reminder of an undeniable fact: All candidates must honestly assess their viable path to win. I continue to call for them to do so,” Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks said.

He said Democratic gubernatorial candidates are at risk of getting “locked out” of the November election.

Longtime political observers in California say it’s still more likely that a Democrat will win at least one of the two spots on the general election ballot because California’s electorate favors Democrats by a margin of nearly 2-to1.

The last time a Republican won statewide was in 2006, when Arnold Schwarzenegger was reelected governor and Steve Poizner was elected insurance commissioner.

Political consultant Randy Economy, who recently ran a recall effort to oust Mr. Newsom, called the latest polls “nonsense.” He said it would be impossible for a Republican candidate to win statewide because the party’s presence in California has all but vanished in recent years.

The same polls showing Republicans leading also indicated that up to a quarter of voters remain undecided. When undecided voters pick a candidate, it’s more likely to be a Democrat, based on state voter registration numbers.

“California is not a Republican state,” said Mr. Economy, who is not affiliated with either party.

He said Democrats have a problem with their own roster of lackluster candidates, which has left them in jeopardy, however slight, of being shut out of the November ballot.

“It’s a sad state of affairs on both sides of the aisle,” Mr. Economy said. “California is in a crisis right now. It’s searching for a political personality, and it can’t find it.”

A Berkeley Institute of Government Studies Poll taken in mid-March found voters “disengaged and largely unenthusiastic” about the upcoming primary.

The Evitarus poll, taken around the same time, found California voters looking for a change. They thought the state was headed in the wrong direction by a margin of 52% to 33%.

Democrats have tripped up their own chances of helping voters get to know their own candidates ahead of the primary.

Democratic squabbling over the inclusion of non-White and female candidates in a planned televised gubernatorial debate last week at the University of Southern California led to the debate being scrapped less than a day beforehand.

Mr. Hilton said two ballot initiatives, one calling for voter ID and the other reinstating protections against property tax increases, are gaining momentum. If they make it to the November ballot, it will help drive Republican voters and independent voters who back his campaign to the polls.

The 2-1 advantage for Democratic Party registration, he said, diminishes when it comes to actual voter turnout.

“I’m under no illusions about what we’re up against, but I’m very confident that we can actually win,” Mr. Hilton said.

He is campaigning to end state income taxes for people earning less than $100,000 annually. Mr. Hilton proposes a 7.5% tax on earnings above $100,000 and an end to property tax increases. Government spending, he said, would be returned to levels before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Many Democratic political observers, however, see Mr. Swalwell or Ms. Porter, who rank highest in their party in current polling, as the most likely winner in a matchup with Mr. Hilton or Mr. Bianco, given the 2-1 party voter registration advantage.

That is, if Democrats don’t get shut out of the November ballot.

Mr. Swalwell has made his mark in Congress as a staunch critic of President Trump. The president’s approval rating in California is about 25%.

Mr. Swalwell’s No. 1 issue in his quest to become governor “is to protect Californians from federal overreach and out-of-control tactics of the Trump administration.”

Ms. Porter, like Mr. Swalwell, has positioned herself as an anti-Trump candidate.

She hoisted a sign that read “F—- TRUMP” during the Democratic Party’s 2026 convention in February and pledged to “kick Trump’s a—” in November.

Like Mr. Hilton, she has called for ending income taxes for people earning less than $100,000 annually. To pay for the tax cut, she pledged to raise taxes on the “biggest corporations,” a move critics warned could drive businesses out of the state.

Mr. Hilton and Mr. Bianco led the candidates in the Berkeley IGS poll with 17% and 16% of the vote, respectively. Mr. Swalwell and Ms. Porter trailed with 13%, followed by Mr. Steyer with 10%.

Mr. Steyer pledges to build 1 million affordable homes and to lower electric bills by 25% by breaking up the state’s utilities, which he said hold a monopoly that has driven utility costs to double the national average.

He also wants to impose a tax on artificial intelligence to fund education.

The Times has reached out to Mr. Bianco.

Earlier this month, he seized more than 611,000 ballots from the 2025 special election on redistricting, in which the state’s voters approved changes that realigned five Republican-held congressional seats in favor of Democrats. Mr. Bianco said he seized the ballots in response to a citizens group that discovered a 45,000-ballot discrepancy between votes that were counted and those cast. His campaign priorities include improving public safety, cutting taxes and lowering energy prices.

In all, 61 candidates for governor will appear on California’s primary ballot for governor, among them dozens who list no party affiliation.

Reza Safernejad, an independent candidate, said the split Democratic field offers candidates like him a unique chance to advance to the general election, even though no independent candidate has registered with significant support in recent polling.

Mr. Safernejad, a former Republican, jumped into the race after his neighborhood was destroyed last year in the Palisades fire.

He has pledged to fight special interests, restore government accountability and implement policies to make the state more affordable.

The government’s onerous permitting process has kept his Palisandes neighbors from rebuilding, and many people are selling out to investors, he said.

“We are still in ashes, still burned out,” Mr. Safernejad said. “Nothing has been really done.”