OPINION:
A new poll in Wisconsin might shed some light on what will happen in battleground states and districts across the country this fall. Although approval for the president slipped in the Marquette University Law School Poll, favorability for Democrats is still lower than that for Republicans. The results suggest a path to victory in November, assuming conservatives can get back on message.
Most important, the top issues are overwhelmingly about concerns over the cost of living and affordability, which would explain the slightly higher marks for conservatives despite the lower levels of support for the president. Historically, voters have trusted Republicans more than Democrats on economic and spending issues.
The approval rating for President Trump is the lowest it has been in this poll at any point in his first or second term. The current poll shows him with a 42% approval rating in Wisconsin. His support is still strong with Republicans, but independents have fallen to 26%, and he has nearly universal disapproval among Democrats.
Some of the disconnect might be related to the timing of the poll, as 61% of voters overall, including 73% of independent voters, disapproved of the attacks on Iran.
In addition, 53% of respondents said tariffs hurt the economy. Only 30% said they help. In particular, 60% said the tariffs hurt Wisconsin farmers. At the same time, 57% favor deportations for those in the country illegally.
Despite the president’s low numbers, Democrats ranked lower than Republicans, even though they are out of power in Washington and in the Wisconsin State Legislature. Of those surveyed, 42% viewed Republicans favorably, compared with only 35% for Democrats.
Again, the concerns raised by voters tend to favor Republicans. Among registered voters in the survey, 96% said they were very or somewhat concerned about inflation and the cost of living, 90% said they were very or somewhat concerned about health insurance, 87% said they were very or somewhat concerned about jobs and the economy, and 87% said they were very or somewhat concerned about the affordability of housing.
Each of these four top issues is related to the cost of living. Further down the list were public schools and border security. In other words, affordability trumped everything else in the survey. Overall, when asked to rank the most important issue, inflation and the cost of living were at the top. The next closest issue was not even half as high as the first.
When asked to choose between K-12 school funding and property taxes, 58% said that they were more concerned about property taxes. People are feeling the pinch of high prices and want to keep more money in their pockets and purses.
With less than two weeks to go, nearly half of the electorate in this poll say they have not decided whom they will vote for in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election. Radical Madison politician Chris Taylor has spent millions of dollars on campaign ads, yet he has only 30% in the survey. Court of Appeals Judge Maria Lazar, the conservative, has 22%. Although it is a long shot, the number of undecided voters suggests this race is not over.
The registered voters in the poll have generally not heard much about the November gubernatorial election. In the poll, 56% said they are hearing a little and 35% say they are hearing nothing at all about the race.
Only two candidates have name identification above 50%: Republican U.S. Rep. Thomas Tiffany and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, the Democrats’ 2022 nominee for U.S. Senate. When asked about favorability, the vast majority of voters said they had not heard enough to form an opinion.
Historical trends suggest the party not in the White House does well in the midterm elections. This is typically the case in Wisconsin. That said, candidates who clearly define themselves as having a plan to address the cost of living can go against the tide and win.
The latest Marquette University Law School poll shows that the issues voters in Wisconsin care about the most are all connected to affordability. As I wrote in past columns, conservatives need to spell out clear plans to lower the costs of housing, power, health care, tuition and taxes.
It can be done. We took on these issues and won when I was governor, working with a Republican-controlled State Legislature. Property and income taxes were lower at the end of our tenure. We froze tuition at the University of Wisconsin. Utility rates did not climb as they have under a Democratic governor. We made it easier to build homes and buildings. People living in poverty had access to affordable health care, and we removed the tax on health savings accounts.
We did it before and can do it again, in Wisconsin and across the country. We just need more conservatives in leadership positions.
• Scott Walker is president of Young America’s Foundation. He served as the 45th governor of Wisconsin.
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