Biggest threat to U.S. success in Iran

OPINION:

Operation Epic Fury is being judged daily on its wins and losses.

The risk is that we are losing focus on the end goals, which were informed by overwhelming support to rein in the No. 1 state sponsor of terrorism.

The radical Islamist regime of Iran, conceived by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, established the Twelver branch of Shiism. In that belief, the world must be conquered and ruled by Muslims for the “Mahdi” (the 12th imam) to effect a second coming from his ninth-century disappearance.

Hence, the “Death to America, Israel and the West” chants.

This bloodlust has embodied the Iranian regime’s obsession with a nuclear weapon since the 1980s. Short of conquest and worldwide rule, death while trying is its own reward.

In the Persian Gulf and beyond, Iran’s clerics are no isolationists. From 2012 to 2020, Iran sent more than $16 billion to terrorist proxies to be available and armed for the battle. Iranians and their proxies have killed more than 1,000 American service members and civilians. You could set your watch in anticipation of Hamas’ next attack (Hamas has initiated war with Israel five times since 2007).

The hidden threats to the success of Epic Fury are short-attention-span voters and summer warriors in Congress. When only a few weeks of combat is considered “endless war,” the Trump challenge is media and congressional impatience.

Domestically, the White House needs to rethink its messaging. The administration should downplay Iran’s human rights record, focusing instead on the future threats from a regime whose leaders seek nuclear weapons and long-range missiles in a culture that embraces martyrdom.

Outrage over past deaths does not hold a candle to the current fear of death from radicals with a religious mission and the means to deliver it. Add to that the wrecking of the global economy and all that would mean for the people in this country. Their health, jobs, savings and way of life are all dependent on stopping messianic lunatics with nukes and missiles.

Trump officials must create fresh, credible threat messages that illuminate the messianic culture of Iranian leadership since the fall of the shah in 1979. Those who tire of the message don’t appreciate why repetitive advertising works.

Despite the horror of Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack, which left more than 1,200 innocent men, women and children dead, the collective memory of the tragedy slowly faded as the Israel-Hamas war played out in the Gaza Strip. Within months, the ire had shifted against Israel, as pro-Hamas college students and well-funded agitprop flooded the mainstream media.

Israel became the villain, and too many Americans lost sight of why they cared in the first place.

When was the last time you heard of Hamas beheading a baby? Or slicing off a woman’s breast?

In a world where TikTok videos and X posts explain official government policy, the sympathy equation will flip from Americans threatened and Iranian protesters killed by Tehran to the collateral damage of U.S.-Israeli bombings. The tragic strikes on an Iranian girls’ school quickly overshadowed the 32,000 Iranian civilians slaughtered by their regime just weeks prior.

The market also grows impatient. The sticker shock of oil crossing $100 per barrel is real, but we have been here before.

In 2008, crude hovered briefly around $150 a barrel. It exceeded $100 a barrel in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. For most Americans, temporary pain at the pump is inconsequential compared with the cataclysmic damage from Tehran’s clerics realizing their destiny. The sticker price of a tactical nuclear attack on American troops would be far higher than a buck more per gallon.

Despite the realities, Democrats denounce Republicans for calling Iran an “imminent threat.” The focus on semantics is comical. If you believe the wording is driving the policy, then it’s fair to demand a better concept of the timing for action.

How close must Tehran get to a nuclear weapon before close is too close? Who should determine when we preemptively pull the trigger? How do you judge a threat from a theocracy that makes cheating on policy commitments a high art? When it comes to defusing stated death threats, later is best defined as too late.

Anti-Israel Democrats (and some Republicans) are busy asking questions, but they offer no good answers. The White House strategy is best realized by ignoring this superficial noise while relentlessly informing the people not how we win, but why.

• Rick Berman serves as president of RBB Strategies.