OPINION:
If you thought we could enjoy a brief, blissful moment of political silence before the 2028 presidential race kicked off, you’ve got another thing coming. The shadow primary is already underway.
Right now, the prevailing assumption is that Vice President J.D. Vance is the heir apparent to the MAGA throne. He certainly acts the part, attempting to channel the vicious, freewheeling rhetoric that made his boss a political juggernaut. But there is a glaring problem with Mr. Vance’s strategy: He hasn’t quite figured out that the Teflon works only for President Trump.
While Mr. Vance currently leads the pack of potential 2028 Republican contenders, a fascinating dynamic is unfolding right beneath his feet. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is quietly — and rapidly — climbing the ranks. A St. Anselm College poll this week of New Hampshire Republican voters handed Mr. Vance 46% of the support, with Mr. Rubio trailing at 27%.
A comfortable lead? Hardly. Just look at the trajectory: Mr. Rubio was sitting at a dismal 9% back in November. As the poll’s own analysts pointed out, “Support for Secretary Rubio has grown significantly,” adding that he “must now be considered a significant challenger to Vance.”
So, as we stare down the barrel of 2028, how will Mr. Vance, Mr. Rubio and the rest of the congressional hopefuls compete for our fractured attention spans? If recent history is any indicator, they will abandon policy entirely and dive headfirst into the mud.
Turn on any cable news network on any given evening. You won’t find lawmakers breaking down the nuances of tax policy or infrastructure. Instead, you’ll find them calling their colleagues corrupt, stupid or worse. We have replaced statesmanship with schoolyard bullying. Just think back to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene charmingly telling Rep. Jasmine Crockett, “I think your fake eyelashes are messing up what you’re reading.”
It is easy to assume these politicians are simply unhinged. But a brilliant new analysis of more than 2.2 million public statements from the 118th Congress reveals a much more calculating reality. The data shows that politicians who frequently unleash personal insults receive a grossly disproportionate amount of media attention.
To put it into perspective, the 25 members of Congress who hurl the most personal attacks rack up more cable TV mentions than the 75 most polite members combined, the analysis found. A lawmaker who spends a mere 5% of their time attacking people gets roughly the same airtime as a colleague who spends 45% of their time actually trying to legislate.
But here is the punchline: Being a televised troll yields absolutely zero measurable political benefit. Once you account for the baseline partisanship of their districts, these conflict entrepreneurs see no statistically meaningful bump in fundraising, lawmaking success, personal wealth or election margins.
They are trading their dignity for screen time, but it isn’t translating into votes or cash. As one retired member of Congress quoted in the study plainly said: “The most recent additions to Congress don’t care about policy; they care about getting attention.”
If acting like a reality TV villain doesn’t actually move the needle, then why does our political landscape feel so permanently fractured? Why do voters put up with the circus? The answer, terrifyingly enough, is that our brains are actively working against us.
A recent study published in Psychological Science offers a grim look at how partisan identity destroys our grip on reality. Researchers took a group of people, divided them into entirely meaningless, fabricated factions (such as “Team Spain” and “Team Greece”), and asked them to evaluate a series of true and false statements.
The results were staggering. Participants were overwhelmingly willing to accept claims that flattered their assigned group, regardless of whether those claims were actually true.
This phenomenon, known as identity protection bias, proves that when our “team” makes a claim, we subconsciously lower our standards for evidence. We don’t suddenly lose the ability to spot a lie; we just become entirely willing to swallow one if it makes us look good.
As the 2028 shadow primary escalates, we need to recognize the trap we are walking into. Politicians will continue to act like conflict entrepreneurs, launching insults to secure free airtime. They know exactly how the game works: Our deeply ingrained partisan biases will force us to excuse their most embarrassing behavior, so long as they are wearing our team’s jersey.
Until we stop rewarding the spectacle with our blind loyalty, the loudest, most obnoxious voices in the room will continue to drown out the people actually trying to run the country. And if Mr. Vance wants to secure the nomination, then he might want to realize that simply playing the loudest instrument in the band doesn’t make you the conductor.
Vice President Vance is counting on that dynamic to make a real run in 2028. But he doesn’t yet know that that works only for President Trump. He’s about to find out.
• Joseph Curl covered the White House and politics for a decade for The Washington Times. He can be reached at josephcurl@gmail.com and on Twitter @josephcurl.
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