The Washington Nationals’ new regime is dragging the franchise into the 2020s.
First-year manager Blake Butera and new President of Baseball Operations Paul Toboni have placed their analytics-forward fingerprints all over the Nationals’ rebuild, from coaches pulled out of sports science labs to new analytics tools across the organization.
Under former general manager Mike Rizzo, the Nationals were notoriously analytics-averse. Sure, they watched batters’ on-base percentage and pitchers’ ERA, but the advanced statistics that have become commonplace throughout the league were noticeably absent.
Not anymore. Washington’s spring training featured an influx of new tools, such as high-tech Trajekt pitching machines, Pulse armbands and spin-axis balls.
The Trajekt system, designed by the Driveline sports lab, can mirror a big league pitcher’s delivery, helping hitters scout the competition before game day. The Pulse armband, another Driveline product, allows the decision makers to track the workload and health of pitchers’ arms. Spin-axis balls are color-coordinated to make it easier for pitchers to see how much spin and velocity they’re placing on their fastballs.
“We’re not in the dark ages anymore,” Nationals outfielder Daylen Lile told MLB Network Radio.
New tech and tips
In an overhaul of the Nationals’ coaching staff, Butera and Toboni added three assistant coaches from Driveline’s ranks this offseason. Andrew Aydt will help the big league hitters, while Simon Matthews will assist the major league pitchers. Travis Fitta will aid batters in Triple-A Rochester.
“[Toboni] knows what he’s looking for,” said Kyle Boddy, the founder of Driveline, who also worked with the Nationals’ decision-maker when he was with the Boston Red Sox. “He’s looking for data-driven, young coaches who are willing to push the envelope.”
At least one National was already familiar with Fitta before spring training. Center fielder Jacob Young was one of the dozens of major leaguers who worked with Driveline to enhance his skills during the offseason.
The company even posted a video about their work.
“[Young] came to us this offseason with elite athletic ability, yet he was way below league-average bat speed and exit velocity,” Fitta explains in the video. “As well as his barrel percentage being in the fourth percentile league-wide and his launch-angle sweet spot being in the third percentile.”
Casual or old-school fans may need a translation for that: Young was swinging slowly and making poor contact. Despite being one of the best defenders in the league, Young’s struggles at the plate have limited his potential.
He didn’t need much explanation. The coaches at Driveline helped him break down and rebuild his swing. He wasn’t finding pitchers until too late, causing weak contact with suboptimal angles. A HitTrax machine accompanied him in the batting cage. After a few training sessions, the high-tech machine displayed his hits as if they were at Nationals Park. Some of his batted balls ended up in the centerfield stands, underneath the Budweiser sign.
“It’s not rocket science,” Fitta told Young. “It’s just redundant now. We have to keep drilling it and keep tweaking the game swing as we go.”
The new data and analysis jargon might be new to Nationals fans, but it’s second-nature to most of the players.
“It used to be pretty tough, because it was foreign to a lot of people,” Mr. Boddy said of translating data to players. “But honestly, it sounds silly, but it’s true, because of the popularization of ‘MLB The Show’ and ‘NBA 2K.’ When I was young and playing video games, that was loser behavior. It’s such a big part of popular culture now.”
At Driveline, players receive a “road map.” Mr. Boddy compared it to career modes in games such as “MLB The Show” or “NBA 2K.” It gives the athletes a measure of how their work each day fits into their long-term goals.
In Washington’s clubhouse, pitchers receive handouts that tell them how well they’re throwing. The data includes basic information, such as fastball velocity and whiff rate, as well as more out-of-the-box metrics, such as attack and kill percentages. Those aggressive numbers track how often pitchers are in the zone and polish off two-strike counts, respectively.
Hitters have access to an on-screen dashboard that presents a similar information overload.
But most of the Nationals are in their 20s. They grew up with phones, tablets and laptops in their classrooms and gyms.
“They’re just so used to data and video games,” Mr. Boddy said. “This is not so much of a big leap for them anymore, where it was a couple of decades ago.”
The new tools are getting rave reviews from players.
“I love it,” outfielder Robert Hassell III, who is starting the season with Triple-A Rochester, told The Athletic. “I treat it like a little kid phone app game.”
Communicating the data — whether through report cards, on-screen dashboards or one-on-one coaching sessions — is a strength of the new Nationals staff. The new technology and data would only go so far without coaches ready to help apply them.
“Those go hand in hand. We’re not getting too far into one, too far from the other,” said pitcher Cade Cavalli, Washington’s opening day starter. “It’s been a really good relationship with the technology, trusting eyes and just having them kind of make us understand what the numbers are saying.”
Catching up
The Nationals aren’t on the cutting edge of MLB’s analytics revolution. The culture shift led by Toboni and Butera this offseason is more about catching up to the rest of the league.
“The disadvantage is crazy large,” Mr. Boddy said. “The technology you bring in, you need to do it fast. You can’t drip it out because you’re at a huge disadvantage. Not just in the training and making players better, but think about next year when they’re trying to sign free agents.”
Salary offers are still the primary driving factor for MLB free agents, Mr. Boddy said. But having the technology and tools in place to encourage development helps when franchises are trying to court young players.
“These guys are going to choose the organization they feel they have a great opportunity with, but also, who’s going to actually get the most out of them?” the Driveline founder said. “It’s no surprise why so many Triple-A and major league players are signing up with the Dodgers.”
Nobody will confuse the Nationals for the back-to-back World Series champs. But the ongoing front office and player development overhaul is a step forward for Washington, which has failed to post a winning record since winning the championship in 2019.
Stat-focused analysts on FanGraphs project that the Nationals will lose between 90 and 100 games. Most sports books set Washington’s win total at 65.5.
But Butera and the players are not dead-set on a postseason run. They’re hoping for signs of life after showing minimal progress in their rebuild over the last six seasons.
“We’re going to be a process-oriented deal, and at the same time, we’re going to compete to win every game,” Cavalli said. “Those go hand in hand. It’s about how you treat your work and your preparation, and I think we’re doing a great job at that, staying dialed in and then not worrying about the results too much.”
• Liam Griffin can be reached at lgriffin@washingtontimes.com.
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