Beyond the war in Ukraine

OPINION:

Europe once transformed a continent of war into a continent of peace. Today, that achievement is under strain.

As the war in Ukraine drags on with no clear end in sight, Europe and the wider Euro-Atlantic community face a decisive question: Will the conflict continue to escalate, or can political imagination once again open a path toward peace?

Wars are always easier to start than to end. The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East painfully demonstrate this truth. War brings suffering, destruction and instability, but rarely lasting solutions. Yet even amid growing geopolitical tension, the search for peace must remain a central political responsibility.

Looking at the war in Ukraine today, three scenarios appear possible: a prolonged conflict, a dangerous escalation or, if diplomacy regains momentum, a negotiated peace.

The risk of a prolonged war

The most likely scenario at present is the continuation of the conflict. Ukraine has already endured immense human and material losses. Cities and infrastructure have been devastated, millions have been displaced, and the economic burden continues to grow.

Despite extensive Western support, the battlefield situation remains extremely difficult. Russia retains the capacity to sustain a long and exhausting war, while Ukraine continues to rely heavily on external assistance to maintain its defense. Without renewed diplomatic engagement, the military stalemate could persist for years.

A danger of escalation

An even more troubling possibility is escalation. Europe knows from its own history how regional conflicts can spiral into wider catastrophe. The two world wars of the last century began in Europe.

Military deterrence and support for Ukraine reflect legitimate security concerns. At the same time, the current trajectory raises difficult questions about whether the conflict could expand further geographically, politically or technologically.

Massive rearmament across Europe may strengthen defense capabilities and deter aggression, but armaments alone cannot produce peace. Lasting stability ultimately requires political solutions that address underlying security concerns.

The need for renewed diplomacy

The origins of the current war lie in a complex series of political and security developments that unfolded over more than a decade. The crisis after the coup d’etat of 2014 and the subsequent conflict in eastern Ukraine exposed deep divisions within the European security architecture.

The Minsk Agreements were adopted to stabilize the situation but were never fully implemented. As relations between Russia and the West deteriorated further, mistrust intensified. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 transformed an already dangerous confrontation into the largest war in Europe since 1945.

A sustainable peace acceptable to both Ukraine and Russia will require the broader international community’s engagement. In particular, relations between the United States and the Russian Federation will remain central to any future European security framework.

Political leaders in several countries have periodically expressed their desire to end the war through negotiations. Whether such initiatives succeed will depend on sustained diplomatic effort and the willingness of all parties to consider new approaches to European security.

Learning from Europe’s history

Europe’s greatest achievement after World War II was transforming historic rivalries into cooperation. The vision of statesmen such as Robert Schuman, Konrad Adenauer, Alcide De Gasperi and Jean Monnet made reconciliation among former enemies possible. Their insight was simple but profound: Lasting peace requires shared interests and shared institutions. Economic cooperation can make war not only undesirable but also materially impossible.

Two initiatives shaped this transformation. The Schuman Plan integrated strategic industries such as coal and steel, laying the foundation for what would become the European Union. At the same time, the Marshall Plan supported economic reconstruction and helped stabilize the continent after a devastating conflict.

A new framework for peace

Today’s geopolitical environment is very different, yet the underlying principle remains relevant. A durable peace in Eastern Europe may require a similarly creative approach that combines security guarantees with economic cooperation.

Therefore, a modernized “Schuman-Marshall approach” could form part of a broader discussion about the future of European security. Such a framework should focus on cooperation in strategic sectors such as energy, natural resources and information technologies.

Such an agreement between the U.S. and Russia would be a significant step. Open to others, it would start to build new security relations, boost economic growth enormously and open a road toward a new West-East Community.

If pursued carefully and inclusively, such efforts could gradually rebuild trust while creating shared interests that reduce incentives for confrontation. The goal is not to ignore the realities of the war but to create conditions in which lasting peace becomes possible.

Foundations of a dignified peace

A great deal of the strategic common markets between the U.S. and Russia would be open to Ukraine, the European Union and other partners across Europe and Eurasia.

A comprehensive settlement must also address the humanitarian and political consequences of the conflict.

Essential elements of a durable peace must include the return of refugees and displaced people, protection of minority rights, the restoration of the rule of law and accountability for war crimes. International mechanisms will be required to manage disputed territories and ensure that the rights of affected populations are respected.

Reconstruction is another challenge. Large areas of Ukraine have sustained enormous destruction. A coordinated international reconstruction effort — comparable in ambition to earlier postwar recovery programs — will restore economic stability and provide a foundation for long-term development.

Equally important will be reconciliation. Wars leave deep scars, not only between states but also among societies. Dialogue, confidence-building and cultural exchanges are essential if a stable peace is to take firm roots.

A demanding but necessary objective

Peace has never been easy or automatic. It requires responsibility, shared interests and perseverance from political leaders and societies alike. The war in Ukraine is a tragedy that has already cost countless lives and immense suffering.

Yet history shows that even the most bitter conflicts can eventually give way to reconciliation and cooperation.

Innovation in politics does not always mean inventing something entirely new. Sometimes it means rediscovering successful ideas from the past and adapting them to new circumstances. Europe’s postwar experience demonstrates that former adversaries can become partners. If that lesson is remembered today, then the search for peace in Ukraine may yet open the door to a renewed architecture of stability and cooperation across the entire continent.

• Jan Figel is a former European commissioner, European Union special envoy and former deputy prime minister of Slovakia. He is also the founder of the European Institute of Innovation and Technology and the president of Forum for Religious Freedom Europe.