WATCH: How Operation Epic Fury is reshaping the 2028 Republican race

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Friday, March 20, 2026

Beyond the deaths of 13 U.S. troops, oil prices in a tailspin, and a regional war ignited in the Middle East, Operation Epic Fury has also detonated a grenade inside the 2028 Republican primary.

While polls show Vice President J.D. Vance is the undisputed heir, a new favorite is emerging from the West Wing shadows amid the war in Iran, and he’s carrying a “velvet glove.”

How Operation Epic Fury is shaking up the MAGA succession:

Since the strikes began on February 28th, the power dynamic in Washington has shifted. While Vice President Vance has largely remained on the sidelines, Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio has been thrust into the spotlight.

Rubio isn’t just a diplomat anymore. He is the primary architect and public face of this war.

And the results are showing up in the prediction markets. In just three months, Rubio’s 2028 presidential odds have skyrocketed from a meager 6% to 18%, leaving him just one point behind the vice president.

So where’s J.D. Vance?

The man who built his brand on opposing “stupid wars” and overseas intervention is now in bind, political analysts say. Reports from Trump administration insiders suggest Vance is “skeptical of the escalation.”

Yet his public statements have remained firmly aligned with the president’s. In a speech to North Carolina voters, he dedicated only a few sentences to the war, framing it strictly as a mission to prevent a nuclear Iran.

His team is dismissive of the leaks about Mr. Vance’s alleged skepticism, calling them mainstream media noise.

But even the president is tuned in to the new dynamic. At a recent Mar-a-Lago donor event, when Trump asked the crowd who he should endorse for 2028, the cheers for Rubio were notably louder than those for Vance.

Marco Rubio’s path to the top is being paved by his dual role, by balancing the MAGA base with the establishment. He’s becoming a bridge builder in a divided party. His defense of the strikes is surgical.

The goals of this mission are clear, and it’s important to continue to remind the American people of why it is that the greatest military in the history of the world is engaged in this operation. It is to destroy the ability of this regime to launch missiles, both by destroying their missiles and their launchers, destroy the factories that make these missiles, and destroy their navy.
— Sec. Marco Rubio

Trump’s own assessment of the two men says it all and shows he’s not necessarily playing favorites. He calls Vance “tough” but said Rubio “does it with a velvet glove.” It’s a kill either way, according to the president.

Now, if you look at the raw data, Vance remains without a doubt the man to beat in 2028.

The latest McLaughlin & Associates poll has him leading the field with 36%, while Rubio, though climbing, is still at 10%.

Vance also has the advantage of an endorsement from the Turning Point USA PAC, which is representing the youth vote. He also has a massive head start in name recognition. But as any political analyst will tell you, momentum is a volatile currency.

Operation Epic Fury is only three weeks old. If this war drags on and the economic havoc of the stock market continues, Vance’s past skepticism might look like foresight. But if Rubio delivers what Trump views as an historic victory, the heir apparent might find himself looking at the back of a Rubio 2028 campaign bus.