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LONDON — Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment to succeed his father as Iran’s supreme leader is unlikely to settle the question of who ultimately will hold power in postwar Tehran.
For Iran’s divided opposition groups, many based outside the country, the decisive struggle is not clerical succession but rather whether the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the regime’s enforcers, can be dislodged.
Some analysts say Mr. Khamenei is a figurehead with the real power held by IRGC leadership. The IRGC, which acts as a “state within a state,” has lost key commanders in the war, so loyalties and priorities may be in flux for Iran’s most ruthless military force.
Various Iranian opposition groups — monarchists, republicans and ethnic movements — are positioning themselves for a post-Islamic future. The opposition remains fragmented, divided by ideology and, in some cases, rivalries dating back decades.
The irony of Mr. Khamenei’s ascension is not lost on the country’s opposition: A revolution that overthrew the monarchy now appears to have produced one of its own.
“The regime’s power base has narrowed further, relying primarily on the IRGC and intelligence apparatus, making it more fragile and vulnerable,” Mohammed Mohaddessin, a senior official in the National Council of Resistance of Iran, said during an online press briefing Thursday.
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Mr. Khamenei’s appointment has faced internal opposition.
“Over 30% of the Assembly of Experts boycotted the vote,” Mr. Mohaddessin said. “And only 44 members, half of the assembly’s members, support him.”
Mr. Mohaddessin is the chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Council of Resistance of Iran. Its principal member is the Mojahedin-e-Khalq. The council announced the formation of a provisional government-in-exile in Paris on Feb. 28 and held rallies across Europe. It is led by Maryam Rajavi, perhaps the only woman leading a national resistance movement in the region.
Founded in 1965 by three Muslim university graduates in opposition to the shah’s regime, the MEK is widely regarded as one of the best-funded and organized Iranian opposition groups.
While Baluchi and Kurdish militants have largely waged rural insurgencies, the MEK resistance units pursued a predominantly urban campaign against Iran’s IRGC and paramilitary Basij units.
Video clips shared with news media reportedly show MEK fighters attacking a governor’s office in Khuzestan province Monday.
The group said it carried out an attack on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s compound in the heart of Tehran on Feb. 23. Iranian state media at the time quietly acknowledged an attack but downplayed its significance.
Among exiled opposition figures, Reza Pahlavi is gaining attention. As the son of the last Shah of Iran, Mr. Pahlavi is a crown prince and has cast himself as a contender for the Iranian throne.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Mr. Pahlavi in Paris on March 13 to discuss the Iran war.
“The Crown Prince and his team briefed me on signals they are receiving from inside the country,” Mr. Zelenskyy said on social media after the meeting, “The regime’s hierarchy has indeed already suffered significant losses, and it is crucial that the Iranian regime gains nothing from this and that the people of Iran have greater protection for their lives and more opportunities to determine their own fate.”
Monarchist groups that long to install a new shah and Kurdish groups demanding independence are just some of the key Iranian opposition groups. Other factions advocate transforming Iran into a secular republic, while nationalist movements tied to ethnic minorities, including Baluch and Arab groups, seek greater autonomy and cultural rights.
“I don’t know whether or not his country would accept his leadership,” President Trump said in the Oval Office when asked about Mr. Pahlavi on Jan. 15. “Certainly, if they would, that would be fine with me.”
Analysts caution, however, that recent chants of “Javid shah” (“Long live the shah”) during protests in Iran may reflect anger at the current regime more than organized support for a restored monarchy in any form.
Still, the return of a monarchy, even a constitutional one, would likely be more palatable to America’s Gulf Arab allies.
“Instinctive longing for the monarchy among protesters does not translate into an organized structure,” said Norman Ricklefs, a former senior adviser to the Iraqi Defense Ministry who is now chairman of the NAMEA Group consulting firm. “Opposition, both Kurdish and more general anti-regime, is divided and is not organized into a unified entity,” he said in an interview with The Washington Times.
Some analysts are skeptical of the prospects for regime change.
“An aerial campaign alone, even one as devastating as the current operation, is insufficient to dismantle a deeply entrenched autocracy. While the regime’s power was severely weakened by the loss of its top-tier leadership on Feb. 28, the IRGC’s structure remains capable of withstanding additional attacks,” said Ali Safavi, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Paris-based National Council of Resistance of Iran. “Overthrowing the clerical regime must come from within, achieved by the Iranian people and their organized resistance.”
The MEK’s military history offers a cautionary tale.
In 1988, at the end of the Iran-Iraq war, the group launched an incursion into Iran from Iraqi territory with the support of Saddam Hussein. The operation initially achieved surprising military success and penetrated deep inside Iran. The Iranian army and the Revolutionary Guards, who often operated independently during the Iran-Iraq war, coordinated a quick response, mobilizing tens of thousands of troops.
The incursion was beaten back before most Iranians knew what was happening.
The anticipated popular uprising against the Islamic republic failed to materialize.
Instead, Iran used the moment to massacre thousands of political prisoners held in its dungeons, mostly members of the MEK but also members of the Communist Party and other groups.
More than three decades later, the shadow of 1988 hangs over Iran’s fragmented opposition. As Kurdish militants and other groups again contemplate similar armed action, history offers a sobering reminder: Regime weakness alone has never guaranteed regime collapse.
Correction: An earlier version of this report incorrectly reported the location of Thursday’s press briefing held by the National Council of Resistance of Iran.
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