Threat report reveals China’s plan to annex Taiwan

NEWS AND ANALYSIS:

China’s communist government is continuing to work toward the annexation of Taiwan and hopes to complete unification with the self-ruled island democracy without resorting to force, according to the U.S. intelligence community’s annual threat assessment.

“China, despite its threat to use force to compel unification if necessary and to counter what it sees as a U.S. attempt to use Taiwan to undermine China’s rise, prefers to achieve unification without the use of force, if possible,” the assessment says.

However, the People’s Liberation Army is also taking steps to develop military plans and forces that can be used to take Taiwan if directed to do so, the annual report states.

Conflict between Washington and Beijing over Taiwan would cause a major disruption of U.S. access to trade and semiconductor technology crucial for the global economy, the report said.

“If the U.S. were to intervene, it probably would face significant but recoverable disruptions to its transportation sector from Chinese cyberattacks,” the assessment stated.

A war in the Taiwan Strait also would produce significant and costly results by disrupting key supply chains and investor fears reflected in markets.

A protracted war with the U.S. also “risks unprecedented economic costs to the U.S., Chinese, and global economies, the assessment said.

The assessment warns that missile threats to the U.S. homeland are escalating as China, Russia, North Korea, Iran and Pakistan are developing an array of novel, advanced or traditional missile delivery systems with nuclear and conventional payloads.

Intelligence analysts now believe missile threats to America will expand to more than 16,000 missiles by 2035, a sharp increase from the current threat arsenal of more than 3,000 missiles that can reach U.S. soil.

Release of intelligence on future missile threats supports President Trump’s plan to develop a major nationwide missile defense system called Golden Dome.

On China, intelligence analysts believe the PLA is making “steady but uneven progress” on building up the kinds of military forces needed to seize Taiwan and deter and defeat U.S. military intervention.

The forces, which were not identified, include amphibious assault ships and other equipment needed to move large numbers of troops and armored vehicles across the 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait.

China’s military has already displayed some of the needed capabilities, including the use of civilian ferries and special bridging vessels that can be used to move forces ashore.

The intelligence assessment appears to downplay the large-scale Chinese military operations around Taiwan that have increased in size over the past three years.

The report said that “at times” the PLA has increased the scope, size and pace of its Taiwan operations.

Countering U.S. military commanders who have warned that China’s military has been ordered to be ready for a military strike on Taiwan by 2027, the assessment said that U.S. intelligence believes that “Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification.

“However, China publicly insists that unification with Taiwan is required to achieve its goal of ’national rejuvenation’ by 2049 — the 100th year anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC),” the report said.

Factors that will influence an attack decision include the readiness of PLA forces, Taiwan’s actions and politics (which Beijing asserts are on a path to “separatism”), and China’s assessment of whether the U.S. will intervene.

President Trump has not said whether the U.S. will defend Taiwan from attack.

The commander of U.S. military forces in the Pacific, Adm. Sam Paparo, however, has said his plans for deterring an PLA attack on the island include the use of thousands of low-cost drones — both aerial and sea-based.

Chinese leaders recognize that an amphibious assault on Taiwan carries a high risk of failure, especially in the event of U.S. intervention, the assessment says.

Stratcom admiral says China strategic threat growing

Advanced technology and low-yield nuclear weapons highlight the most complex and strategic threat environment for the United States since World War II, the new commander of the Strategic Command says.

Adm. Rich A. Correll, who assumed the Nebraska-based nuclear forces command in December, told a House Armed Services strategic forces subcommittee hearing that China, Russia, North Korea and Iran are subverting global balances of power.

Artificial intelligence, autonomous weapons, quantum communications and sensors are changing the character of war, he said. New threats from cyberattacks, electromagnetic and space weapons, novel missile systems and supply chain threats “continue to impact our decision calculus and planning practices,” Adm. Correll stated in prepared testimony.

“The development of nuclear weapons with smaller yields, improved precision, and increased range increases strategic ambiguity and the possibility for coercive use by potential adversaries,” he said.

Despite the challenges, Strategic Command continues to deter strategic attacks and is ready to wage war under presidential directives if deterrence fails, said the four-star admiral, a former nuclear submariner.

The major strategic nuclear threat continues to be China, which, under President Xi Jinping, has increased its strategic and shorter-range nuclear capabilities, including massive megaton-class warheads.

“Driven by President Xi’s directive for military preparedness, China is heavily investing in its land-, sea-, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms,” Adm. Correll said.

“The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) seeks a larger and more diverse nuclear force, comprised of systems ranging from low-yield precision strike missiles to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) with multi-megaton yields,” he said.

A new strategic weapon disclosed by the admiral is the PLA’s rapid development of electromagnetic warfare capabilities that are growing in scale and sophisticated and are designed to attack U.S. systems, he said.

“Over the last two decades, the PLA[air force] has almost doubled its dedicated intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR)/electromagnetic warfare (EW) aircraft inventory with newer and fully operational jamming platforms,” he said.

China is also continuing to threaten the U.S. global forces posture and presence and has expanded the threat into space with “offensive space capabilities” that include concentrated targeting of U.S. nuclear command and control systems.

“These efforts include direct-ascent anti-satellite weapons capable of destroying satellites in orbit and advanced jamming technologies aimed at disrupting encrypted satellite communication links,” he said.

The People’s Liberation Army is increasing the number of silos for DF-31 intercontinental missiles to 320 and up to 50 silos for liquid-fueled DF-5 ICBMs, he said.

Past assessments put the number of DF-31 silos in western China at 300.

The PLA Rocket Force also is deploying additional DF-31 and DF-41 ICBMs that are capable of hitting the United States, Adm. Correll said.

Under the sea, the PLA now has six Jin-class ballistic missile submarines each outfitted with up to 12 JL-2 or newer JL-3 missiles that also can reach the U.S.

The strategic bomber fleet includes H-6N bombers that carry nuclear-tipped air-launched ballistic missiles and a new H-20 stealth bomber with a range of about 6,000 miles is “intended to hold the continental United States at risk,” he said.

Robert Kadlec, assistant defense secretary for nuclear deterrence, who testified along with Adm. Correll, said China’s nuclear “breakout,” or rapid buildup of nuclear forces, has produced “the unprecedented challenge of deterring two nuclear peers, China and Russia, simultaneously.”

Mr. Kadlec said the threat is not a distant problem and is “the central, organizing challenge for our defense strategy today.”

“China is engaged in the most rapid and opaque nuclear expansion in history,” he said, noting “a massive investment in theater-range delivery systems” that threaten U.S. forces, allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region.

“The purpose of this expansion is clear: to create a strategic shield behind which the People’s Liberation Army can conduct regional aggression, particularly against Taiwan,” Mr. Kadlec said.

“A force of this size and sophistication provides China with a spectrum of nuclear options to try to deter U.S. intervention and coerce a resolution to a conflict on China’s terms.”

Trump puts off China visit for ’five or six weeks’

President Trump is putting off his much-touted visit to China, where he hopes to conclude a trade deal with Beijing, for four or five weeks.

“We’re resetting the meeting,” Mr. Trump said Tuesday at a White House press conference with Micheal Martin, Ireland’s prime minister. “We’re working with China; they were fine with it.”

The visit to Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping initially was set to begin March 31 and continue to April 2.

China, which is facing significant economic problems, appears to still seek the summit, despite its opposition to U.S. military operations against Iran.

Asked about the delay, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said: “Head-of-state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable role in providing strategic guidance to bilateral relations. China and the U.S. will continue to maintain communication on President Trump’s visit to China.”

The summit delay is likely an outgrowth of ongoing military operations against Iran. The president suggested last week that the operation would wind down before the end of the month — timing indicating he would go to Beijing after a halt in the bombing.

China also is hesitant to go ahead with the original schedule over concerns it would appear to be condoning the war against Iran, a strategic partner, Bloomberg reported, quoting a person familiar with summit preparations.

Other reports said Mr. Trump put off the trip over Beijing’s refusal to join an international coalition to force open the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran is threatening to attack ships.