America’s all-volunteer military in jeopardy

OPINION:

As the United States continues to confront Iran, many Americans are asking whether war will weaken military recruiting. In fact, patriotism often produces a short-term surge in interest when conflict begins — but the underlying trend points to a more troubling problem.

The pool of young Americans qualified and willing to serve is shrinking. Unless that changes, the long-term strength of America’s all-volunteer force could be at risk.

Military recruiting has struggled in recent years after being hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. School closures limited recruiter access to students and youth engagement declined. The result was one of the most difficult recruiting environments since the creation of the all-volunteer force in 1973.

Through increased incentives and innovative initiatives, recruiting has begun to stabilize. In 2025, every branch of the armed forces met or exceeded its recruiting goal, an accomplishment that had not occurred in several years.

Some observers worry that military action against Iran could reverse that progress. Yet the early stages of conflict often produce the opposite effect. Historically, the opening phases of war tend to spark a surge of interest in military service which can benefit recruiting efforts. The challenge emerges later.

As wars stretch on, public enthusiasm often fades. This pattern was evident after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Recruiting surged in the months following the attacks and remained strong for several years. As the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan dragged on and American casualties mounted, recruiting became increasingly difficult.

Whether the conflict with Iran will last long enough to produce a similar dynamic remains to be seen. Even if recruiting remains stable in the short term, the United States faces a more troubling challenge.

Only about 23% of Americans between the ages of 17 and 24 meet the basic qualifications for military service. The remaining majority are disqualified for reasons ranging from obesity and medical conditions to criminal history, drug use or inadequate academic preparation.

Interest in military service is also limited. Surveys show that only about 9% to 10% of young Americans say they are likely to consider serving in the military. When eligibility and interest are combined, the numbers become even more concerning. Analysts estimate that only about 2% of young Americans are both qualified and strongly inclined to serve.

A military can only recruit from the population it serves. When more than three-quarters of a generation cannot meet the basic requirements for military service, the long-term sustainability of the all-volunteer force becomes uncertain. If the United States must increase military end strength in response to global threats, the limitations of today’s recruiting pool will become apparent.

Part of the problem is cultural distance. Less than 1% of Americans currently serve in the military and fewer families have direct connections to military service than they used to. As a result, many young Americans grow up with little exposure to the military.

Reversing this trend requires national attention.

Schools should welcome recruiters onto their campuses so students can learn about military career paths and educational benefits. Accurate information allows students to make informed decisions about whether service is right for them.

Public leaders also play an important role. Officials across the political spectrum should celebrate the value of military service and encourage young Americans to consider it. Service to the nation should never be a partisan issue.

Addressing disqualifications among young Americans is equally important. The military shouldn’t lower standards simply to increase enlistments. The armed forces must remain a disciplined and capable fighting force.

Programs such as the U.S. Army’s Future Soldier Preparatory Course represent one innovative response. The program allows certain recruits who fall short of academic or physical standards to improve their fitness levels or raise their test scores before entering basic training.

The initiative has proven remarkably effective. Since its launch, tens of thousands of young Americans who might otherwise have been disqualified have gone on to qualify for service.

A more effective long-term solution requires improving the readiness of America’s youth before they ever meet a recruiter.

The all-volunteer force remains one of the greatest strengths of the U.S. military. It has produced millions of capable Americans who freely choose to defend the nation. The success of that system ultimately depends on the readiness of the next generation.

Recruiters across the country work tirelessly to fill the ranks of the armed forces and their recent success deserves recognition. Yet their mission will become increasingly difficult if the underlying issues affecting youth eligibility and interest in service remain unaddressed.

If the conflict with Iran expands, the nation’s recruiting challenges will become far more visible.

America therefore faces a clear choice: We can ignore these warning signs and hope the next generation will be ready when the nation calls, or we can recognize that declining eligibility and interest in military service represent more than a recruiting problem. They represent a national security imperative.

Ensuring that more young Americans are qualified and inspired to serve is essential to sustaining the all-volunteer force and preserving the security and freedoms it protects.

• James W. Welch is a retired U.S. Army colonel who commanded recruiting organizations and is the author of “The Art of Military Recruiting: Lessons Learned from The Recruiting Battlefield.”