Japan’s Takaichi sails toward Middle East

SEOUL, South Korea — Perhaps no leader on the global stage is as chummy with U.S. President Trump as Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, but their upcoming Thursday summit in Washington could prove tense.

Mr. Trump this week called on countries dependent on the Middle East’s oil to deploy warships to the Strait of Hormuz and criticized allies for piggybacking off the U.S. military.

These critiques are problematic for Japan, which imports more than 90% of its energy needs from the Gulf — as noted by Mr. Trump — and deploys a more powerful surface fleet than any other U.S. ally.

Tokyo is noncommittal

“I regard the threshold as extremely high for sending Japanese ships to the region under existing Japanese laws,” Japanese Chief Policy Advisor Takyuki Kobayashi told broadcaster NHK Sunday.

“We are currently examining what Japan can do independently and what is possible within the legal framework,” Ms. Takaichi told the Diet Monday.

The summit agenda is expected to include a $550 billion Japanese investment in the U.S. and joint development of rare earths. But the proposed creation of Mr. Trump’s naval “coalition of the willing” to secure the Strait of Hormuz is likely to loom over discussions.

Tankers laden with Gulf oil must traverse the strait to reach global maritime trade routes. The strategic, 21-mile-wide chokepoint is physically dominated by Iran.

Washington and Tel Aviv have proven unable to counter Tehran’s asymmetric strategies that have closed the passage. As oil prices surge, the global economy is taking hits.

With the U.S. Navy fighting an offensive air-missile campaign against Iran from offshore, Mr. Trump has urged allies to take on the task of securing the strait.

That high-risk mission could include clearing mines, suppressing aerial and underwater drones and escorting convoys.

Ms. Takaichi is in a bind. Japan is highly dependent on Gulf oil — and deploys a very powerful navy.

Japan in the crosshairs

The world’s largest force of overseas GIs, roughly 54,000-strong, is based in Japan. America’s next-largest overseas contingents are approximately 35,000 in Germany and 23,000 in Korea.

Moreover, Japan’s huge industrial sector demands power and the country is a net energy importer. Japan buys up 11% of the Gulf’s total supply and oil is the leading source in Japan’s energy mix, supplying the national grid with 39% of total power.

Japan’s naval capabilities, meanwhile, are bristling.

Tokyo, mindful of its pacifist constitution and its aggressive history in the Pacific War, has — stealthily — built up one of the world’s most powerful navies, the Maritime Self Defense Force.

Though it lacks heavy carriers or nuclear submarines, defense attachés around the region have, for more than a decade, looked on in awe at the MSDF’s expanding muscle. In terms of hull count — and related sustainability and presence — no other middle power comes close.

According to GlobalFirepower, the MSDF displaces 798,062 tonnes. The ideal convoy escorts, and the key surface-fighting component of any fleet, are surface escorts — destroyers and frigates. Japan fields 49.

The navy of South Korea displaces 427,946 tonnes, with 32 escort vessels, while the French Navy displaces 487,471 tonnes, with just 16 escorts. America’s traditional maritime ally is the UK’s Royal Navy, but it displaces just 406,308 tonnes, and fields a mere 13 escorts.

The well-armed MSDF fields Aegis destroyers and select vessels are currently incorporating Tomahawk cruise missiles into their onboard armories.

Its two light carriers carry F35B stealth fighters. A marine brigade was stood up in 2018.

Where does Japan stand?

Mr. Trump could press Ms. Takaichi this week to deploy her forces to the Middle East, but the Japanese leader has some cover. No NATO capital has yet volunteered. Nor has South Korea.

“She may feel Japan will not be singled out for kowtowing,” said Haruko Satoh, a regional relations expert at the Osaka School of International Public Policy. “I am quite sure that Takaichi-San is feeling a bit of wriggle room because no other countries have responded.”

Others differ.

“Japan has the most capable surface fleet of any U.S. ally,” wrote Australian security analyst Euan Graham on X. “So its non participation [in the SOH] is a much bigger deal.”

Mr. Trump is “going to expect more from the Japanese because they have the resources,” said Grant Newsham, a retired U.S Marine officer with wide experience in Japan. “And he knows as well that Japan is [heavily] reliant on Middle Eastern energy, so his transactional instincts will kick in.”

Since 1945, Japan has undertaken multiple missions alongside U.S. forces.

During the 1950-53 Korean War, Japanese crews delivered U.S. troops to the famous Inchon Landing and undertook dangerous offshore mine clearances.

In the Global War on Terror, Japanese troops operated in non-combat roles, and Japanese vessels joined anti-piracy patrols off East Africa.

Young Japanese are less concerned by historical shadows than their pacifist predecessors.

“The World War II generation and the one after it are becoming fewer and fewer so that rote opposition to Japan doing anything much involving force or potential danger is nowhere near what it was 30 years ago, or even a decade ago,” Mr. Newsham said.

The risks of deploying to the Strait of Hormuz extend beyond operations.

“Takaichi does not need parliamentary approval to send the MSDF to the Hormuz Strait, but with up to 82% of Japanese opposed to this war, doing so would be extremely risky for her politically,” said Paul Midford, a specialist in Japanese foreign policy who teaches at Meiji Gakuin University.

Ms. Takaichi controls the more powerful Lower House of the Diet. But the Upper Chamber can delay legislation for 60 days, Mr. Midford said, and the opposition controls key committees.

One excuse Ms. Takaichi could raise is Taiwan. Japan dominates seas northeast of the democratic island, and — after a 10-day hiatus — Chinese air and naval forces have resumed operations around Taiwan.

With U.S. eyes focused on the Middle East — and some assets from Okinawa and Korea are deploying to that theater — Japan provides a resident defensive bastion and naval deterrents.

Mr. Newsham is unconvinced.

Joining the Americans in the strait “is prudent and a risk worth taking: The Japanese would only be sending a few ships at most,” he said. “And consider the payoff: Do the necessary to support the Americans and you lock in the promise of future American support in a fight closer to home.”

Feasibly, Japan could add value in a sphere Mr. Trump has not raised: diplomacy.

“At the time of the first Gulf War, Japan was the only country in the Western alliance to have an embassy in Tehran,” said Ms. Satoh. “So there was some info that Japan could share.”

In 2019, the late Premier Shinzo Abe — Ms. Takaichi’s political mentor — met Iranian leaders in Tehran.

“There is institutional memory with Iran” in both Ms. Takaichi’s party and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ms. Satoh said.

Mr. Midford suggested Japan and Europe might provide an off-ramp.

“I could see Japan negotiating with Iran, perhaps along with European countries, to reopen the Strait in exchange for a guarantee that the attack on Iran would stop and not resume, and perhaps some sanctions relief.”

But with Tehran in hard-line mode, he was “not sure they could credibly meet Iran’s demands.”