Critics split on Oscar frontrunner as ‘Sinners,’ ‘One Battle After Another’ head into Sunday

Critics, pundits divided on Oscar frontrunner as ’Sinners,’ ’One Battle After Another’ head into Sunday’s ceremony

The 98th Academy Awards, set for Sunday evening at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, have produced one of the most fiercely contested Oscar races in recent memory, and predictions from critics and awards trackers remain sharply divided heading into the final hours.

The ceremony airs Sunday at 7 p.m. ET on ABC and Hulu, with Conan O’Brien returning as host for the second consecutive year.

Best Picture: A Two-Film Race

Two big, imaginative, wildly creative movies are in the mix, and this year, no one seems sure which one will come out on top.

“Sinners,” director Ryan Coogler’s supernatural thriller, received a record 16 nominations overall, while Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” grabbed 13 nods. The two films face off in a record 11 different categories, surpassing the 10 head-to-head contests between “Oppenheimer” and “Poor Things” at the 2024 Oscars. 

“One Battle After Another” has won at the Critics Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA, Directors Guild and Producers Guild — a combination that historically has never lost best picture. But “Sinners” holds the SAG ensemble award and WGA prize, another combination that has also never lost. One way or another, records will fall on Oscar night. 

Gold Derby predicts the two films will tie with five Oscar wins apiece, with “One Battle After Another” projected to take best picture, best director, best supporting actor for Sean Penn, best adapted screenplay and best film editing, while “Sinners” is favored in best actor, best original screenplay, best casting, best cinematography and best score. 

At NPR, critics are split down the middle. Glen Weldon and Aisha Harris predict “One Battle After Another” will prevail, with Weldon arguing that traditional Academy voters who dismiss genre films will gravitate toward Paul Thomas Anderson’s political satire and feel good about casting a vote for it — even if “Sinners” is the more deserving film. Harris added that “it’s time for Paul Thomas Anderson,” noting he has yet to win either best picture or best director despite enormous industry goodwill.

NPR’s Stephen Thompson, however, is betting on “Sinners,” drawing parallels to “Everything Everywhere All at Once” — both films released in the first half of their respective years, both outperformed at the box office, both featured largely non-white casts, and both received more nominations than expected, suggesting broad Academy support.

The Seattle Times also leans toward “Sinners,” noting that the film was seemingly an also-ran until early March, when “Sinners” won the SAG ensemble award and Michael B. Jordan took best actor at the Actor Awards — and suddenly it was anyone’s race.

Variety predicts “Sinners” takes best picture, while Yahoo Entertainment gives “One Battle After Another” the edge, noting Gold Derby gives “One Battle” a 69% chance, compared to 27% for “Sinners.”

Best Actor: Jordan vs. Chalamet

Gold Derby gives Mr. Jordan a 67% chance of winning the Academy Award for his performance as twin brothers in “Sinners,” with Timothee Chalamet a distant second at 19%.

Mr. Jordan, as twins Smoke and Stack, could become the first performer to win an Oscar for a dual role. His main competition is Chalamet, who plays ping-pong prodigy Marty Mauser in “Marty Supreme” and is seeking his first Oscar win despite three career nominations, as well as Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”), Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”) and Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”).

Mr. Chalamet’s campaign has been complicated by controversy. Despite managing to alienate the opera and ballet communities with some ill-considered remarks during his pre-awards press push, many still view him as a viable contender. NPR’s Glen Weldon argued the notion that Oscar voters dislike aggressive campaigners “is provably false — try-hards win Oscars all the time.” But NPR’s Stephen Thompson countered that voters appear exhausted by Mr. Chalamet’s campaign, compounded by last year’s push for “A Complete Unknown,” and are less fond of “Marty Supreme” than they are of “Sinners.”

Best Actress: Buckley the near-consensus pick

Among critics, Jessie Buckley is described as a virtual lock for best actress, with Gold Derby giving the 36-year-old Irish actress a 100% chance of winning for her role in “Hamnet.”

A minor controversy may have introduced a sliver of doubt. An interview surfaced in which Ms. Buckley said she doesn’t like cats — she later walked that back on “The Tonight Show,” though after the voting deadline had passed.

The other nominees — Rose Byrne (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”), Renate Reinsve (“Sentimental Value”), Kate Hudson (“Song Sung Blue”) and Emma Stone (“Bugonia”) — have each drawn support from individual critics as deserving winners, but the consensus holds that Ms. Buckley is the strong favorite.

Best Director: Anderson’s moment

Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated for 11 Academy Awards across his career, but has yet to win one. Gold Derby gives him a 90% chance of winning Best Director for “One Battle After Another.”

The narrative that Anderson is the greatest working filmmaker never to have won an Oscar has been part of this awards season since “One Battle” first screened in September. Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”), Josh Safdie (“Marty Supreme”), Joachim Trier (“Sentimental Value”) and Chloe Zhao (“Hamnet”) round out the field.

Supporting Categories

In supporting actor, Sean Penn is the frontrunner with a 67% chance of winning his third Oscar, per Gold Derby. Mr. Penn previously won for “Mystic River” (2004) and “Milk” (2009). Also in the mix are Benicio Del Toro and Delroy Lindo (both “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” respectively), Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”) and Stellan Skarsgard (“Sentimental Value”). The Seattle Times noted sentimental support for Mr. Lindo, receiving his first-ever Oscar nomination at age 73.

For supporting actress, Amy Madigan won the supporting actress award at the SAG-AFTRA Actor Awards earlier this month, with Gold Derby giving her more than a 60% chance of taking the Oscar for her performance in the horror film “Weapons.” Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”), Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”), and two cast members from “Sentimental Value” — Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas — complete the category.