OPINION:
President Trump may have built into his Big Beautiful Bill an additional $150 billion in defense spending that is above and beyond what’s normally appropriated for the department. But it’s hardly enough.
According to The Heritage Foundation’s “2026 Index of U.S. Military Strength,” America’s military is in trouble in terms of readiness, strength, modernity of equipment.
“As currently postured,” the think tank found, “the U.S. military is at significant risk of not being able to defend America’s vital national interests with assurance. It is rated ‘marginal’ relative to the force needed to defend national interests on a global stage against actual challenges in the world as it is rather than as we wish it were.”
The report, in making its determinations, takes a “what-if” approach in rating America’s military — specifically, it considers the strength of U.S. defense in a situation involving two, simultaneous conflicts, and whether or not today’s forces can achieve a successful end. The report assesses four areas: equipment, readiness, the capacity of forces (collectively and broken down by branch), and the various challenges each region of potential conflict might bring. And the overriding question that’s asked is simple: Is America’s military prepared to defend U.S. interests?
Sadly, soberly, the current rating says “no.”
The U.S. Army “is aging faster than it is modernizing,” the report states. It’s rated “weak” for capacity — that is, if it has the sufficient number of capabilities, or tools and equipment, to meet its mission. On capabilities, it’s rated “marginal.” On readiness, which considers the numbers of staffing, the level of training of the staff, and the age and status of equipment, the Army rates “very strong.” Taken together, the overall rating for the Army’s power and strength is “marginal.”
The U.S. Navy’s “fleet is too small relative to mission workload, and supporting shipyards are overwhelmed by the repair work that is needed to ensure that ships are available,” the report states. It’s rated “very weak” in capacity and readiness and “marginal” in capability — “weak” overall. By 2027, the Navy will be operating with a deficit of 120 ships; of the 400 needed to perform operations, the Navy will likely only have 280.
Similarly “weak” is the U.S. Air Force, which is “smaller, older and less ready than at any point in its history,” and on track to shrink even more in the coming years, the report states. “Overall,” the report continues, “the service is not ready for peer conflict at a time when the world is increasingly dangerous.” The Air Force scores “very weak” on readiness, “weak” on capacity and “strong” on capability.
Here’s the high point.
The U.S. Marine Corps is “strong” — in fact, it scores “strong” across all three ratings. And it’s strong specifically when it comes to an imagined face-off against the Chinese.
“The Marine Corps’ strong readiness rating comes from a consistent equipment modernization campaign and being five years into reorganizing itself to the PRC [People’s Republic of China] more effectively if needed,” the report states.
The U.S. Space Force is rated as “marginal.” The U.S. Coast Guard is “weak.” The U.S. Merchant Marine is “weak.” America’s nuclear power is rated “strong” — and scores “strong” in terms of stockpiles, delivery systems and creditability, versus “marginal” in warhead and nuclear delivery systems’ modernization. America’s missile defense is “strong.”
Put it all together and America’s military is only OK.
“The 2026 Index concludes that the current U.S. military force is at significant risk of being unable to meet the demands of a single major protracted regional conflict while also attending to various other presence and engagement activities,” the report states. “The force would probably not be able to do more and is certainly ill-equipped to handle two nearly simultaneous [military campaigns] — a situation that is made more difficult by the generally weak condition of key military allies.”
Yikes.
But here’s the good news: with the rapidly changing state of security due to artificial intelligence and technological developments, the readiness factor of America’s military and defense forces could trend upward in the blink of an eye.
At the same time, context means everything.
In other words, America’s defense only has to stay a step ahead of that of America’s enemies — and diplomacy and politics change definitions of enemies versus allies almost as rapidly as technology shifts power.
It’s good to have a handle on the level of America’s military strength — and it’s good to take the wisdom of President Reagan’s words, i.e., peace through strength, and when it comes to defense, go big; go as big as budgets allow.
But gloom and doom is not America’s fate.
When it comes down to it, wars are won on human resolve and spirit. And on that, America’s fighting forces always score the best.
• Cheryl Chumley can be reached at cchumley@washingtontimes.com or on Twitter, @ckchumley. Listen to her podcast “Bold and Blunt” by clicking HERE. And never miss her column; subscribe to her newsletter and podcast by clicking HERE. Her latest book, “God-Given Or Bust: Defeating Marxism and Saving America With Biblical Truths,” is available by clicking HERE.
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