OPINION:
Iran’s attacks across the Persian Gulf were likely intended to deter regional governments from aligning more closely with the United States and its partners, but they may produce the opposite effect.
For years, several Gulf states attempted to maintain pragmatic relations with Tehran, even while cooperating with Washington on security matters. This balancing approach reflected geography and economic realities.
Recent events are putting that strategy under severe strain.
In just the first week of the Iran war, the United Arab Emirates reportedly intercepted nearly 200 missiles and more than 1,000 Iranian drones, underscoring how exposed the region has become to Tehran’s expanding military reach.
Perhaps more important, the political reaction across the Gulf has been striking. Qatar’s prime minister recently described Iran’s attacks as a serious miscalculation that have created a deep sense of betrayal among Gulf states.
If that sentiment spreads, then Tehran may find that its attempt to project power has instead weakened the political space it once had in the region.
By attacking states that long tried to remain neutral, Iran may ultimately be forcing the Gulf to abandon the very neutrality that once helped stabilize the region.
BRADLEY MARTIN
Executive director, Near East Center for Strategic Studies
Chicago, Illinois
DR. LIRAM KOBLENTZ-STENZLER
Senior researcher, International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) at Reichman University
Woodbridge, Connecticut
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