Chinese military flights around Taiwan decrease

Chinese military warplane flights around Taiwan have declined sharply while warships incursions continue to be detected around the self-ruled island in the run-up to a planned summit between President Trump and his Chinese counterpart.

Taiwan military authorities reported Monday that no incursions of jets or drones had been recorded over the previous 10 days, in what analysts say is a dramatic reduction in the incursions that often cross the dividing line down the center of the 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait.

The flights were part of what U.S. military intelligence officials say is a campaign of pressure on the island democracy that Beijing views as a breakaway province.

A review of Taiwan Defense Ministry data on daily flights by People’s Liberation Army aircraft shows that since Feb. 28, only two Chinese aircraft were spotted near the island.

Between Sunday and Monday morning, a total of eight PLA navy vessels were detected operating around Taiwan, the ministry stated on X.

“No flight path illustration is provided, as we did not detect #PLA aircraft operating around Taiwan during this timeframe,” the post stated.

During the same period last year, there were a reported 86 flights by PLA aircraft near Taiwan.

Aircraft sorties around Taiwan declined by about 42% during January and February compared to the same period in 2025.

PLA warship numbers continued to average around six vessels a day.

The decline in warplane incursions comes as China is preparing for an official visit by President Trump next month.

It also occurred as the ruling Chinese Communist Party holds a major meeting in Beijing, the National People’s Congress.

Another potential factor in the decline in military flights is the purge of senior PLA leaders over the past several weeks, including the most senior general in the CCP’s Central Military Commission, Gen. Zhang Youxia, and a second senior leader on the commission.

Mr. Trump’s upcoming visit will be limited to a single city, Beijing, based on a tight schedule and security fears, Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post reported Monday.

Trump administration advance officials visited Beijing earlier this month, and preparations for the visit are in the final stages, the news outlet reported, quoting sources familiar with visit planning.

Mr. Trump is scheduled to visit China from March 31 to April 2 and the U.S. military action against Iran has had limited impact on the summit preparations, the outlet reported.

Retired Navy Capt. Carl Schuster, an expert on the PLA, said the likely decline in warplane flights could be linked to reducing any potential Taiwan tensions related to upcoming talks between Mr. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

“Taiwan will be an issue, but cutting back on the sorties gives the impression Beijing is looking to reduce tensions,” Capt. Schuster said.

“The sorties will pick up again about 30 days after Trump returns to the US.”

Capt. Schuster also said the flight reductions could be based on Beijing calculating that now is not the time for China to risk provoking the American president. “To Xi, Trump is unpredictable but decisive,” he said.

Another lesser reason could be related to China’s annual spring festival holiday held from Feb. 16 to 23.

The festival provided a reasonable cause for a flight standdown until the timing of Mr. Trump’s visit was set.

“However, that is not a major reason, but what we used to call a preliminary justification that provides a logical and un-embarrassing off ramp if the desired arrangements fall through,” Capt. Schuster said.

But retired Navy Capt. James E. Fanell said the decline in military flights is clearly a defensive reaction by the CCP to the American war on Iran.

“PRC General Secretary Xi Jinping was clearly taken aback by the U.S. operations against Iran,” Capt. Fanell said.

“The curtailment of PLA air force operations around and against Taiwan is a significant moment and demonstrates the power, and importance, of U.S. military deterrence,” he said.

China affairs expert Rick Fisher said next year will mark a decade of deliberate and menacing activity against free Taiwan through regular and then daily PLA air and naval harassment around the island.

“If Washington is unwilling to conduct regular massive shows of force in the Taiwan Strait to deter a Chinese attack, then at a minimum it must escalate its rhetoric,” said the International Assessment and Strategy Center analyst. “Ensuring Taiwan’s survival delays the day in which all democracies will be fighting for their survival and also ensures that a free nation so close to China undermines and weakens the legitimacy and power of the Chinese Communist Party.”

Brian Hart, who analyzes the Chinese military for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the decline in warplane incursions is not unusual.

“This isn’t mysterious. PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s [air defense identification zone] drop to/near zero around the time of the annual ‘two sessions’ every year,” he wrote on X.

The “two sessions” refers to the National People’s Congress meetings now underway in Beijing.

“If this pattern persists well beyond the two sessions, then it would be unusual. But I don’t think there’s evidence of anything unusual yet,” he said.

Ben Lewis who runs the online website PLATracker said the decline in warplane traffic was a significant disruption to routine activity.

“The longer the activity gap persists, the more concerned I will be about broader implications, but I have not seen any indications that the PRC is preparing for any major kinetic action,” Mr. Lewis told the French news agency AFP.

In Taiwan, a security official told AFP that China may be seeking to spread the false impression that the PLA is easing threats to Taiwan in a bid to deceive the United States into reducing support for Taiwan security.

“We must not let our guard down,” the official said.

A U.S. intelligence official said several months ago that Chinese military exercises and operations around Taiwan increased beginning in 2020 as part of a major “pressure campaign” on the island’s government.

A year earlier, Mr. Xi ordered the PLA to be ready for military action against Taiwan by 2027. The prior goal had been for the PLA to prepare for military action by 2035, the official said.

“So what we see is that in 2020, around about late 2020, we see that spike in military components going into IOC,” the official said, using the term for initial operating capability.

The new weapons included several categories of munitions, including intermediate-range and medium-range missiles.

“We’ve seen the [military] development focused around those two major goals: One is Taiwan invasion scenario, and two is counter intervention,” the official said, using the term for thwarting a U.S. defense of Taiwan.

“However they’re exercising in those two goals.”

The official said the exercises are “rehearsals” for future military action that help train troops and forces. The exercises also are used for strategic messaging of the U.S. and often take place in response to an action Beijing opposes, such as U.S. arms sales or visits by foreign leaders to Taiwan.

The drills go for several days and then when the exercises are over the PLA will leave a larger number of forces in place than were in the area earlier, the official said.

“And now that’s a new, quote, unquote, norm for what Chinese military presence looks like in that [area of responsibility]. That’s the strategy,” the official said.

In 2022, following the visit to Taiwan by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the PLA expanded the pressure campaign.

“Then what we start to see is multiple incursions over the center line,” the official said. “We used to get maybe one or two a year, to 10 a year, to we’re talking hundreds a year of fighters that would cross the center line… So that’s when we really start to see the pressure campaign build.”

The pressure campaign is designed in part to train PLA forces that would be used during invasion operations. The flights also are aimed at tiring the Taiwan military that must respond to flight incursions with intercepting aircraft.

“It messages Taiwan as well,” the official said. “China’s goal is to force capitulation from Taiwan. They want political unification. China’s goal is not to invade Taiwan. They would prefer to do it without fighting. They would prefer to do it through forced capitulation or other means.”