Wide-ranging protests in Iran put Islamic republic in precarious position, experts say

Iran’s leadership is facing an existential challenge this month, experts said Wednesday, as widespread protests expanded this week across most of Iran’s provinces, spurred on by a severe economic downturn in recent months.

Experts at the Middle East Institute think tank said that the protests, inspired by Iranians’ basic material needs, have now become so broad that it is becoming increasingly difficult for Tehran to ignore or combat them.

“I think this is just another data point showing that the Islamic Republic of Iran is unwilling and unable to govern its people,” said Alan Eyre, diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute, in a Wednesday discussion. “It’s still ongoing, and the government is using its usual toolbox of repression, but it’s still smaller.”

Indeed, despite calls from the regime for protesters to go home, the demonstrations have only expanded. The protests began late last year with small-scale but rare shopkeeper strikes in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar and have now expanded to 27 of Iran’s 31 provinces, according to open-source reporting.

During previous moments of mass protest, Iran has throttled internet speeds where unrest is concentrated and deployed local militia groups to dish out brutal beatings to protesters. Police also carry out mass arrests, with the Center for Human Rights in Iran reporting that over 2,000 people have been arrested in connection with the protests as of Tuesday.

The collapse of Iran’s rial is seen as the primary motivator behind the demonstrations, with prices ballooning on many Iranian grocery staples. Tehran also recently announced changes to the pricing structure for its gasoline, typically some of the cheapest fuel in the world, which increased the effective price for many.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has tried to ease tensions over the past week, offering a $7 monthly stipend to Iranians struggling to make ends meet. The president’s conciliatory tone is out of step with Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has argued that the protests are illegitimate and has blamed Western nations for Iran’s economic issues.

“Even the supreme leader is admitting this anger. Even the bazaaris, who are very cautious,” Mr. Eyre said. “When they’re coming out, it tells you we’re not talking about young students with some romantic, abstract idea of change. These are people who are hurting.”

Iran’s recent economic downturn follows the reimposition of United Nations Security Council sanctions late last year, after European leaders concluded that Tehran had not made enough progress on a diplomatic solution to its nuclear program. The sanctions put an even greater strain on Iran’s profits from oil sales, already under scrutiny from U.S. restrictions.

The economic issues, in conjunction with the devastating effects of Iran’s 12-day war with Israel and the U.S. in June, have infused the demonstrations with a potency not seen in other protest movements in Iran over the years.

“The sense of hopelessness in Iranian society is at a different level. There is no prospect of a diplomatic resolution and that creates this sense of hopelessness, and gives reason for the regime to really worry whether this round is different,” said Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at MEI.

The protests have also turned deadly, with several independent organizations reporting that at least 36 people have been killed in the past 11 days. Those casualties sparked renewed threats of military action by the U.S., with President Trump promising Sunday to hit Iran “very hard” if authorities start killing protesters.

Those threats have hit even harder in the aftermath of the U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Saturday. It’s unclear what kind of operation Mr. Trump would order, or what impact it would have on a citizenry already skeptical of Washington.

“I certainly don’t see it outside the realm of possibility that the U.S., in response to bloodier suppression of Iranian protesters, decides to take out some installations and/or some people.” Mr. Eyre said. “Will that change facts on the ground materially? I don’t think so.”

Still, there are signs of support on the ground for U.S. intervention. One video from a protest in Tehran appeared to show a demonstrator replacing a street sign with one that read “President Trump Street.” Others have been more explicit, calling the supreme leader a murderer and chanting that the protest is the final battle for Iran’s future.

However, getting an accurate picture of protest sentiment in Iran is difficult due to widespread social media and internet restrictions. Additionally, experts have warned of uncritically trusting protest content coming out of Iran due to the prevalence of deepfakes and videos generated by artificial intelligence.