OPINION:
A quote (possibly misattributed to Vladimir Ilyich Lenin) said, “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.”
It seemed that a decade was crammed into last week, when now-former Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro and his wife were captured and taken to the United States for trial and Iran degenerated into a possible revolution.
On Friday night, in a raid reportedly by our Delta Force, Mr. Maduro and his wife were captured and taken to New York City, where both will stand trial on a variety of drug and terrorism charges.
This brought to mind the U.S. invasion of Panama in December 1989, which also resulted in a dictator, Manuel Noriega, being brought to the U.S. for trial. Noriega was convicted on drug trafficking and racketeering charges and served time in a U.S. prison. He later — much later — returned to ignominy in Panama.
President Trump has said we are going to run Venezuela, presumably until a free and fair election can be held. He also said that we would begin to sell Venezuelan oil to other countries. How are we going to do all that?
Venezuelan acting President Delcy Rodriguez has condemned the U.S. snatch of Mr. Maduro and made clear that her de facto government is not going to quit. Mr. Trump has told her to get on board or get out of the way but has also indicated that she may work with the U.S. to establish a new Venezuelan government. The president also indicated that Ms. Rodriguez would get a first chance at running Venezuela.
Why? Ms. Rodriguez is a dedicated socialist who is entirely opposed to our taking Mr. Maduro to the U.S. She helped Mr. Maduro maintain his power while Venezuela’s economy crumbled. She won’t cooperate in any way that reduces the regime’s power. If we are intent on regime change in Venezuela, Ms. Rodriguez and the rest have to go.
That a de facto government is opposing the U.S. action makes it hard to predict who will run Venezuela for quite some time.
Another question is whether we will or can do what we did to Mr. Maduro to the ayatollahs of Iran.
Last week, President Trump posted on his social media site, Truth Social, “If Iran shots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
This column has previously written that the president should sign a secret presidential determination authorizing the CIA to overthrow that regime. Whether he has done so, we cannot and should not know.
Over the past week, protests and riots in Iran have attempted to overthrow the ayatollahs’ regime. Several people have been killed, including a few Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members. The Israeli Mossad intelligence agency said on its X feed that the protests have turned into an armed revolution. We have to hope the Mossad is right.
One report said Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has already fled Tehran. That’s certainly wishful thinking. The regime is still entrenched. It is threatened by the riots and demonstrations, but the size of the threat is unknown.
For the president to declare that we are going to intervene in Iran to come to the rescue of the protesters and revolutionaries is highly questionable. This column has expounded on how Mr. Trump makes empty threats, and this may be one of them.
We have many military assets in the area, and the Israelis would likely want to participate in any regime change in Iran. Doing so won’t be as easy as sending a Delta Force squad to snatch Ayatollah Khamenei.
The IRGC controls the Iranian economy and is totally loyal to the ayatollahs. Most would have to be caught or killed to eliminate that influence.
China buys a substantial portion of Iran’s oil exports, about 90% of the total, and is not going to stand by idly while we change the Iranian regime because China is highly dependent on that oil. We have to assume that Chinese agents are helping the ayatollahs stay in power.
The only way to change the Iranian regime is from within. If the people of Iran want to change the regime, they can if we help by providing communications equipment and arms. Groups, such as the supporters of the son of the late Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and the National Council of Resistance of Iran, could restore democracy to Iran, but we don’t know how many supporters of those groups are in Iran.
We should help the Iranian revolutionaries in every way we can. If the ayatollahs’ regime falls, only the Iranian people can accomplish it.
• Jed Babbin is a national security and foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Times and a contributing editor for The American Spectator.
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