U.S. scrambles to close ‘deep chasm’ in drone warfare after Ukraine lessons

U.S. military spending on small drones has quadrupled since the war in Ukraine demonstrated the devastating capabilities of these remote systems, and data shows that the money is being spent among dozens of American companies amid Pentagon plans to enable troops to build and 3D-print their own drones.

The spending is slated to increase this year. The defense authorization recently passed by Congress earmarked some $1.7 billion for small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS), a significant jump from the $398 million spent in 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war began.

Obviant, a Virginia-based firm that uses artificial intelligence to track military spending across various areas, shared data analytics with Threat Status at The Washington Times. The data shows that the vast majority of the sUAS funding is being spent on contracts under Army programs.

The Times and Obviant collaborated to examine how U.S. companies have scrambled to compete for a total of $4.7 billion that the Pentagon has spent on sUAS since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and the world took notice of small drones’ drastic change in warfare.

Ukrainian forces have shown that a solitary soldier can carry and launch small drones with dramatic effect, often using off-the-shelf commercial drones strapped with improvised explosive devices to exact damage on Russian front-line positions.

On a more strategic level, Ukraine has used explosive drones to reach deep inside Russian territory to hit military and oil infrastructure targets. In attacks on Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers and strikes in Crimea against oil refineries and infrastructure, the small, cost-effective drones have changed the world’s approach to war.

As the conflict in Ukraine escalated, the Department of Defense assembled uniformed military experts to examine battlefield tactics. For nearly a year, experts have discussed the evolving nature of warfare, using the burgeoning conflict as a case study to identify new capabilities and tactics.

A clear and major gap in equipment, training and tactics became apparent from the conflict’s use of drones. The U.S. military’s drones in inventory were focused on high-level surveillance. The development of smaller, inexpensive drones for use by ground forces lagged.

Last year, the Security Services of Ukraine conducted Operation Spiderweb, releasing sUAS deep into Russian territory remotely from seemingly nondescript shipping containers. The operation targeted four air bases and destroyed more than 40 planes, including bombers that had conducted long-range strikes against Ukraine.

Kateryna Bondar, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, described the operation as an attack against the “backbone of Russia’s long-range strike and aerial surveillance capabilities.” U.S. military officials and members of Congress quickly saw it as a turning point in the world’s understanding of drone warfare.

Of the $1.7 billion that Congress is spending on sUAS this year, $1.3 billion is for the Army.

Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, whom President Trump calls his “drone guy,” is responsible for closing that gap. At the annual meeting of the Association of the United States Army, Mr. Driscoll said drones “will dominate 21st-century warfare.” He described the lag in military innovation as a “deep chasm” between available commercial technology and the outdated systems currently in the hands of soldiers.

Mr. Driscoll often acknowledges publicly that he has been given the responsibility to modernize the drone capabilities of the entire U.S. military, leading the charge from within the Pentagon.

The programs align with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s “Unleashing U.S. Military Drone Dominance” directive, which is supported by and aligned with the White House.

The Drone Dominance Initiative, an additional $1 billion plan and request to industry for solutions, is set to have its first deadline by Friday. Approved solutions will be tested and compete for an order of 30,000 new sUAS.

The military has widespread examples of new spending for drone programs, including some that have received funding for updates and new versions.

The Skydio RQ-28A, a military version of the X2D, is a small drone that is part of the Army’s short-range reconnaissance program. The quadcopter-style drone, first deployed in 2022, provided soldiers with a device they could launch from their backpacks and use to view the battlefield. Now, the company has upgraded to the X10D, a smaller, more capable drone.

The current budget for the RQ-28A includes a Skydio contract worth $46.8 million, which is expected to grow to $100 million before Congress needs to approve additional funding.

The Army isn’t just investing in outside companies.

Army Undersecretary Mike Obadal visited the Red River Army Depot in early December with a congressional delegation. The focus of the trip was the Army’s new SkyFoundry, a program run by the Army Materiel Command aimed at producing thousands of drones per month. The Army aims to develop attritable sUAS using inexpensive parts, 3D printing and other rapid production methods.

“It should be indicative, and I hope you pass this back to the congressional representatives, that this is the place that we have come on our first trip outside the Pentagon,” Mr. Obadal said. “The reason this visit is so important is because our organic industrial base is the foundation of this entire capability chain.”

Mr. Obadal pointed out the speed with which the Army is engaging with industry to develop capabilities. SkyFoundry, he said, was “nothing a few months ago” and is now an active Army program.

Earlier last year, Rep. Pat Harrigan, North Carolina Republican, put forward language along with senators to make the SkyFoundry program a permanent fixture and increase funding.

“China and Russia are flooding the battlefield with millions of drones, while America has sat on its hands. More than 80% of casualties in modern war now come from drones, yet we still have no capacity to build them at scale,” Mr. Harrigan, a former Army Green Beret who now sits on the House Armed Services Committee, said in a statement.

Mr. Harrigan views SkyFoundry as a means to “design, test, and build a million drones a year right here in America.” He said it “cuts China out of our supply chains” for sUAS.

The result of this competition with foreign adversaries in the small drone field is nearly double the number of contracts involving sUAS authorized by Congress and the Army. The lines around what is and isn’t a “small” drone start to blur as well, as more companies try to solve Mr. Driscoll’s problem.

A recent example, the FLM 136 by SpektreWorks, is a design meant to mimic the capability of a Shahed drone, designed by Iran and used with devastating effect by Iran and Russia.

This month, U.S. Central Command, responsible for troops in the Middle East, announced that a squadron of the SpektreWorks FLM 136 drones was already in use. Called Task Force Scorpion Strike, the drone unit is using the next step up from a currently funded SpektreWorks Low-Cost Unmanned Combat Attack System drone, the FLM 131.

SpektreWorks, an Arizona-based defense company, is building the U.S. military’s first one-way attack drone. Three contracts for the FLM 131 netted the company $34 million, according to Obviant, which is also contracted with the Defense Innovation Unit. The new FLM 136 drone will add to that as its development comes under formal contract authorization and its spending is overseen by Congress.

It is one of the first examples of the new design, procurement and production process quickly moving equipment from concept to a combat theater. That approach requires investment by the industry up front, but also a significantly broad level of investment by Congress. Rather than spend on individual, highly complex designs ahead of their production, funds will have to be spent on numerous products and tested to see what works in the field.

Congress’ spending plan for the Defense Department this year shows no signs of slowing down on the investment for small drones. It isn’t yet clear whether the drones the U.S. is purchasing, along with the continued investment, will make a difference on the battlefield.