Is democracy possible in Iran?

OPINION:

The Iranian people are saying they want new leadership. It’s not too hard to understand why so many merchants, university students and young people in Iran are on the streets calling for political change and an end to the current Islamic republic rule.

It was the merchants in Tehran’s Grand Bazar who initially closed their shops last month because they couldn’t make a living with soaring inflation and the collapse of the national currency, the rial. Merchants in more than 32 cities quickly followed suit, with university students and the public joining protests calling for change.

This is not new for Iran. In 2009, the government ensured that incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was reelected president, despite the opposition leader, Mir Hossein Mousavi, having widespread support from the public with his promised hope and change. The government’s heavy hand in ensuring Mr. Ahmadinejad remained in power, regardless of what the people wanted and voted for, understandably angered the public, resulting in Iran’s Green Movement.

Protesters, who adopted the color green as the symbol of hope and change, claimed the election was rigged. When they demanded greater democracy, the rule of law and an end to authoritarian practices, the government responded violently. Peaceful protesters were beaten, with thousands arrested and dozens killed.

In September 2022, Jina Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian, was arrested for improperly wearing her headscarf (hijab). She died in police custody, with eyewitnesses saying she was beaten to death. Her passing resulted in nationwide protests, with Iran Human Rights reporting that at least 476 people were killed by security forces. Amnesty International reported that the Iranian police and security forces fired into groups with live ammunition and killed protesters by beating them with batons. Amini’s death gave rise to the global Woman, Life, Freedom movement.

Since then, Iran has conducted a war against its own people, with widespread arrests of anyone protesting its widespread corruption and human rights abuses.

The current protests were sparked by Iran’s severe economic crisis and water shortages, and also by the regime’s humiliating defeat by Israel in this summer’s 12-day war and the subsequent U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan. This was after the people were told that Israel would never dare attack Iran. It did, with impunity.

The hundreds of millions of dollars spent on Iran’s nuclear program — including the building of thousands of spinning, sophisticated centrifuges, enriching uranium at 60% purity and concealing it all in deeply buried underground facilities — certainly contributed to Iran’s economic collapse. The resultant global sanctions imposed on Iran also contributed to the crumbling of its economy. Indeed, Iran’s long history of pursuing nuclear weapons and then claiming it had ceased doing so while denying International Atomic Energy Agency access to suspected nuclear facilities ensured that the global community viewed Iran with deep suspicion and was supportive of the biting sanctions against it.

Iran’s nuclear pursuits and the resultant sanctions led to Iran’s failed economy. It was the people who suffered when the rial lost its value.

In recent days, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged the legitimacy of the protesters’ complaints and announced the appointment of a new central bank chief.

Dozens have reportedly been killed during the demonstrations, with hundreds arrested and thousands on the street saying they want change. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, blamed foreign interference in an address Saturday and said that “rioters must be put in their place.”

President Trump had warned that if Iran “violently kills peaceful protesters,” the U.S. “will come to their rescue.”

These and previous demonstrations tell us that the Iranian people have suffered enough. They have taken to the streets because they want change, hope and a leadership that cares for them. The protesters carry signs reading, “The mullahs must leave Iran.” It’s clear: The government has mismanaged Iran’s economy and made it a pariah nation. The Iranian theocracy, led by Mr. Khamenei, apparently no longer has the support of the Iranian people.

Is a democratic, secular Iran possible?

• The author is the former associate director of national intelligence. All statements of fact, opinion or analysis expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official positions or views of the U.S. government. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying U.S. government authentication of information or endorsement of the author’s views.