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On the same day, 36 years apart, the U.S. launched shocking and consequential military operations in Latin America aimed at securing American interests abroad by removing unpopular authoritarian leaders.
But both operations, the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Jan 3, 2026, and the capture of Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega on Jan. 3, 1990, have major differences that could threaten U.S. objectives in the region.
Like in Venezuela, the U.S invasion of Panama in December 1989 was driven by accusations of drug smuggling and racketeering on the part of Noriega, who had become the de facto dictator of the Central American nation.
The U.S. was also deeply concerned about control over the Panama Canal, which Noriega had continuously threatened to take greater control over as president.
The U.S. invasion of Panama in 1990 is largely viewed as a successful operation, especially compared to other U.S.-backed regime change operations around the world, like in Chile or Guatemala. Large pockets of U.S. troops were already stationed in Panama at the time of the invasion, making it easier to establish military control over the nation and the Panama Canal.
Just 23 U.S. troops were killed and 325 were wounded in Panama during the invasion. Noriega was convicted in 1992 on drug trafficking, money laundering and racketeering charges and was sentenced to 40 years in prison. He served time in the U.S. and Panama before he died in 2017.
SEE ALSO: Trump administration starts outlining post-Maduro strategy, keeping grip on Venezuelan oil
The U.S. does not have a similar military presence inside Venezuela, and, due to the country’s size, it would require a much larger military commitment to establish full ground control. Mr. Trump said he has not ruled out “boots on the ground” in Venezuela after the capture of Mr. Maduro on Saturday.
However, the U.S. has maintained a massive military presence in the waters surrounding Venezuela since late last year and has conducted dozens of deadly strikes on alleged drug boats, killing over 100 people.
Thorny political issues in Venezuela also stand out as a key difference between the two U.S. regime change operations. Specifically, there is no clear successor to Mr. Maduro approved by Washington, which could lead to political chaos and further violence.
The U.S. installed popular opposition leader Guillermo Endara as president immediately after the capture of Noriega in 1990. Endara ran against Noriega in the 1989 presidential election and received massive public support, but ultimately lost after the dictator annulled the results.
Endara, who died in 2009, and his political allies led massive protests against the Panamanian government after the elections and were brutally repressed by Noriega-allied paramilitary groups and the police. The violent reaction fueled public backlash to the Noriega government and increased support for the opposition, both domestically and internationally.
During Endara’s term as president, he abolished the Panamanian military, replacing it with a smaller national police force, and slowly rebuilt democratic and economic institutions weakened by Noriega before holding open elections in 1994.
Mr. Trump has said the U.S. will “run” the country until a safe and “judicious” transition can be conducted. He added that Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who assumed the presidency after Mr. Maduro’s arrest on Jan. 3, is willing to work with the U.S. to ensure a proper transition takes place.
But that contradicts Ms. Rodríguez’s public comments following the U.S. operation, in which she has demanded that Mr. Trump release Mr. Maduro and called the arrest a “barbarity” committed against her country.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio added to the contradictions on Sunday when he did not confirm that the U.S was in total control of Venezuela, instead asserting that Washington would continue its oil embargo on the country.
“We continue with that quarantine, and we expect to see that there will be changes, not just in the way the oil industry is run for the benefit of the people, but also so that they stop the drug trafficking,” Mr. Rubio said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”
Mr. Trump has also seemingly ruled out backing Venezuelan opposition leader and 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado for control of the country, arguing that she does not command enough support inside Venezuela.
Absent from the conversation thus far has been Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido, who claimed to have won the presidential election against Mr. Maduro in 2019. After international critics, including the first Trump administration, declared the elections illegitimate, Mr. Guaidó declared himself president and held the title of “acting president” from 2019 until his exile from Venezuela in 2023. Mr. Guaidó has maintained close ties with critics of Mr. Maduro in Miami, Florida, where he has lived since 2023, but it is unclear if he has the popular support to lead Venezuela.
• Vaughn Cockayne can be reached at vcockayne@washingtontimes.com.
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