Will the 2025 shutdown actually matter?

OPINION:

As Congress heads into the new year, lingering questions remain about the long-term impact of the 2025 government shutdown. The most important one is simple: Will it matter in the midterm elections? The short answer is no. The more complicated answer is maybe.

The shutdown happened for one reason and one reason only: The Democrats in Congress had to feed their base. Just like Republicans had to do in October 2013 for the last “base” shutdown, Democrats felt compelled to show they were willing to do anything to stand up to the Trump administration.

As the dust settles from the longest government shuttering in American history, I’ll cut right to the chase and answer the questions that remain.

Who won? Neither party.

What did Congress miss? Nothing, really.

Will it affect anything long term or shape the 2026 midterms? No.

The more complicated question is: Who came out looking better (or at least less bad)? Historically, Republicans have decidedly lost every shutdown since the fresh Republican majority in 1995. The fact that they didn’t lose this one outright is in itself a win. House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune stuck to their guns and didn’t give up anything tangible, and they moved three appropriations bills across the finish line.

Democrats, meanwhile, did gain some momentum near the end, as it looked like they had done what they had set out to do. As eight Senate Democrats voted to reopen the government, the liberal circular firing squad that followed reminded Americans that nothing they could have done would have been enough for the left’s most vocal activists.

Some argue that even symbolic shutdowns matter for messaging, but history suggests otherwise. The 2013 Republican shutdown lasted 17 days and plummeted Republican approval numbers. The party had no message. Its base was upset. House Speaker John Boehner’s leadership was in question, although he consistently argued against the closure.

Fast-forward 13 months, and Republicans had won nine seats and the majority in the Senate, eight seats in the House and numerous state legislative and gubernatorial seats nationwide.

Speaking of the election landscape, structural factors are far more influential than a shutdown will ever be. For example, the ongoing redistricting processes in Texas and California will shape the incoming freshman class more than any short-term standoff on Capitol Hill.

In Washington, the sky is always falling. Various news outlets called the damage from the shutdown “almost incalculable” or cited “permanent damage” to the country. Even Mr. Johnson quipped, “Our long national nightmare is over.” Frankly, those comments are a little dramatic. In reality, the shutdown, if not forgotten already, will be soon enough, and the American people will be on to the next crisis.

Sure, the to-do list is lengthy and thorny political issues remain: the Epstein saga, Obamacare subsidies, more appropriations bills and other items. At the end of the day, nothing was urgent enough to justify the panic from the shutdown.

As Republican Whip Tom Emmer told Punchbowl: “The attention span of America is a nanosecond. We move on to whatever is the next big thing like that.” He is right. Attention has already shifted elsewhere.

With few exceptions, very little that happens in Congress impacts the American people. Shutdowns are lost, not won, based on who is in charge of Congress and the presidency and, above all, the economy. There’s the magic word: “economy.” The midterms will be decided based on what voters think about it and their own financial futures. Are prices dropping? Are wages rising? Do people feel more hopeful than they did a year ago?

Shutdowns come and go, and what Congress does (or does not do) won’t matter come midterms. Elections are decided by how Americans feel when they walk into the voting booth, not by a Washington skirmish they barely remember. Ultimately, this shutdown won’t matter by the time the next ballots are cast. What will matter is whether people believe their wallets, not Washington, are moving in the right direction.

• Jeff Burton is a Republican strategist and a founding partner at Maven Advocacy Partners.