Study: Minority births are now the majority of U.S. newborns

Minority births have become the majority of newborns for the first time in U.S. history, according to an analysis of federal data that finds Hispanic immigration driving the trend.

Researchers found that from 2016 to 2024, 50.4% of 33 million live births recorded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were non-White Hispanics, Blacks, Asians and other racial minorities.

They discovered that White births made up the remaining 49.6%.

Drs. Amos Grunebaum and Frank A. Chervenak, who teach obstetrics and gynecology at the Donald and Barbara Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/Northwell, published the findings Friday in JAMA Network Open.

“These shifts reflect declining fertility across most groups, contrasted with immigration trends and younger ages among Hispanic women that sustain overall birth rates,” they wrote in the study.

The doctors estimated that Hispanic women accounted for more than 1 in 4 of all children born nationwide during the period, calling it “a significant demographic shift for the next generation of Americans.”

“The results of our study surprised me,” Dr. Grunebaum, the lead researcher, said in a statement. “This is a big deal because our country is restricting immigration and trying to increase births simultaneously.”              

According to the study, more than 4 in 10 maternal illnesses and deaths occur among pregnant Hispanic and Black women.

Dr. Grunebaum said the findings call for the U.S. medical system “to improve its ability to provide bilingual, culturally sensitive care to prevent health disparities from getting even worse.”

The findings come as native citizens live longer and have fewer children.

The CDC estimates that the U.S. birth rate dropped to a record low of 1.6 births per woman in 2024.

That’s well below the replacement rate of 2.1 births needed to maintain the nation’s population without higher immigration numbers. 

Alison Gemmill, a perinatal epidemiologist teaching at the UCLA School of Public Health, said more specialized studies are needed to understand broader trends.

“If we really want to see where the need is, we need better data than births broken down by race and ethnicity,” said Ms. Gemmill, who was not involved in the study. “Let’s look at different medical conditions and risk factors related to pregnancy.”

Immigration has dropped sharply since President Trump returned to office a year ago, suggesting that the Hispanic baby boom could reverse under sustained immigration restrictions.

The Census Bureau reported on Tuesday that the U.S. population grew by just half a percent, or 1.8 million people, between July 1, 2024, and last July 1.

The federal agency blamed a “historic decline” in immigration for the slowest population growth rate since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

By contrast, the country added 3.2 million people during an immigration surge under the Biden administration from 2023 to 2024, the fastest growth in nearly two decades.

The CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics estimated Thursday that U.S. life expectancy hit a new high of 79 years in 2024, rising 0.6 years from 2023 and passing the previous peak of 78.9 years in 2014.

That included estimates that the average U.S. man now lived for 76.5 years in 2024, compared with 81.4 years for the average woman.

The study published Friday found that White women were likelier than other races to delay childbirth, leading to “difficulties conceiving and a decision to have fewer children.”

“Conversely, minority women were found to begin childbearing earlier in life and to have more children,” Drs. Grunebaum and Chervenak wrote.