OPINION:
Among South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s top challenges: balancing relations between the U.S. and China while taking on greater responsibility for the deterrence of North Korea.
State visit to China
Mr. Lee had a successful state visit to China this month. Meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping apparently went well. The visit was meant to ease bilateral strains with South Korea’s principal trading partner. The meetings focused on trade and supply chains, semiconductors and regional tensions, with Mr. Lee reaffirming adherence to a “One China” approach to cross-strait relations.
Mr. Lee asked China to act as a mediator with North Korea, to ease inter-Korean tensions and, ideally, to resume a dialogue with a nuclear North Korea. Regarding denuclearization, Mr. Lee proposed a phased approach, with North Korea receiving corresponding benefits if it agrees to a freeze on nuclear weapons development. Mr. Xi counseled patience.
New National Defense Strategy
The Defense Department’s National Defense Strategy, published Friday, states that South Korea will take primary responsibility in deterring North Korea, with the U.S. playing a “more limited” supporting role. The strategy seemingly aims to update the U.S. force posture on the Korean Peninsula and is in line with President Trump’s directive to allies to be proactive and spend more of their gross domestic product on national defense.
The National Defense Strategy does not mention the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, suggesting a shift toward managing, rather than eliminating, North Korea’s nuclear weapons arsenal.
The U.S. has 28,500 troops in South Korea. Since the Korean War armistice of 1953, U.S. troops in South Korea have always been a tripwire, making clear to North Korea that if it attacks South Korea, as it did in 1950, then the U.S. will again come to the defense of South Korea.
Recently, considerable focus has been on the presence of U.S. troops in South Korea and their availability to operate outside the Korean Peninsula. Will any of these U.S. troops in South Korea be available to address a broader range of threats, such as working with the U.S. to defend Taiwan?
Deterring a nuclear North Korea
The National Defense Strategy foresees a “more limited” U.S. role in deterring North Korea, with South Korea taking primary responsibility for its defense. Indeed, South Korea has increased its defense budget and is moving to assume wartime operational control of the joint U.S.-ROK command.
Over the past nine years, North Korea has exponentially increased its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to deliver these nuclear weapons. The Korea Institute for Defense Analysis reported that North Korea had up to 150 nuclear weapons and would have 200 in 2030.
North Korea’s progress with its intercontinental ballistic missiles program is also concerning. At the Workers’ Party’s recent 80th anniversary celebration, the Hwasong-20 was displayed, a solid-fuel, road-mobile ICBM with a likely capability of multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles. The Hwasong-15, -17 and -18 can also strike the continental U.S.
North Korea also has a formidable intermediate and regional missile program, with missiles that can strike South Korea and Japan and low-yield nuclear weapons for regional combat use. It’s also nearing completion of nuclear-powered submarines in addition to its diesel-electric submarines.
This is the North Korea that the U.S. and South Korea are deterring. It’s also the North Korea that, in 2024, signed a mutual defense treaty with Russia, committing both countries to provide immediate military aid if either was attacked.
The nuclear umbrella
As mentioned, North Korea has a formidable arsenal of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to deliver these weapons of mass destruction. Its nuclear doctrine recently changed from “no first use” to a nuclear-first-use policy if there is an imminent threat to leadership or command and control infrastructure.
Extended nuclear deterrence commitments: U.S. guarantees to defend South Korea, Japan and Australia against nuclear and high-level conventional threats using nuclear weapons. This is important given the concern, especially in South Korea, that it would be better prepared if it had its own nuclear weapons as a deterrent against North Korea.
Balancing relations
Balancing security reliance on the U.S. and economic engagement with China is a manageable challenge for Mr. Lee. The U.S. is South Korea’s closest ally, going back to 1950 and North Korea’s invasion of South Korea. The U.S. will always be there for South Korea, with our troop presence and extended deterrence commitments. Indeed, South Korea should be supportive of U.S. forces in South Korea operating outside the Korean Peninsula.
• The author is a former associate director of national intelligence. All statements of fact, opinion or analysis expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official positions or views of the U.S. government. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying U.S. government authentication of information or endorsement of the author’s views.
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