OPINION:
Aristotle once said, “Well begun is half done.” In respect to Venezuela and Iran, he might have said, “Half done is not yet begun.”
In a considerable display of American might, our Delta Force seized (now former) Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro and his wife. They did so with no American deaths and, in the course of the operation, apparently killed more than 30 Cuban security troops guarding the Maduros. Mr. Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, are now in New York awaiting trial on various drug and terrorism charges.
The Venezuelan government, led by Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, remains in place. Ms. Rodriguez is a Maduro-ist who has supported all his policies, including allowing Iran’s terrorist proxy force Hezbollah to operate freely in the country.
Mr. Trump, after a telephone conversation between the two, has praised Ms. Rodriguez. He wrote on Truth Social: “We are making tremendous progress, as we help Venezuela stabilize and recover. … This partnership between the United States of America and Venezuela will be a spectacular one FOR ALL. Venezuela will soon be great and prosperous again, perhaps more so than ever before!”
If Ms. Rodriguez banishes Hezbollah, opens trade with the U.S. (especially in oil) and holds free and fair elections, she will have accomplished our goals for Venezuela. It is highly unlikely that she will do any of that. Iran won’t leave Venezuela to its own devices. “Regime change” in Venezuela may not have changed much at all.
For weeks, Iran appeared to be on the brink of revolution. Tens of thousands of protesters and rioters took to the streets in an effort to topple the ayatollahs’ regime. There is no accurate count of how many protesters have been murdered by the regime, but credible accounts number the dead at more than 10,000.
Iran seems ripe for revolution. Its economy is in shambles, banks are failing and the Iranian rial is basically worthless. The economy cannot be repaired without relief from international sanctions.
On Jan. 2, Mr. Trump told the protesters that “help is on its way” and wrote that we were “locked and loaded and ready to go.” Three days later, he apparently backed down. This weekend, he called for new leadership in Iran and again condemned the regime.
Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been forcefully lobbying Mr. Trump not to go to war with Iran and probably dissuaded him from helping the protesters cum revolutionaries. They reportedly believed that any U.S. intervention would cause a wider war in the Middle East, and they may be right.
Iranian missiles could reach anywhere in the Middle East, and their proxy Hezbollah could strike almost anywhere, possibly including the United States. We don’t know how many Hezbollah terrorists came into the U.S. from Venezuela among the millions of illegals President Biden allowed in.
Saudi Arabia, our sometime ally, greatly fears what could happen if we — again — attack Iran, especially if we attack the regime itself. The population of Saudi Arabia’s eastern province is about one-third Shiite. Saudi Arabia’s oil production is also mainly located there. Any U.S. invasion of Iran could propel that population to rebellion and sabotage of Saudi oil facilities.
Qatar, where our Al Udeid Air Base is located, is not an ally of ours. Its support for Hamas, the Islamic terrorist group that launched a genocidal attack on Israel in 2023, proves that point. Of equal importance, Qatar has reportedly refused permission for our air base there to be used for any attack on Iran. We should urgently move our air base to another country that is a reliable ally, but that is for another column.
Any military operation in Iran would be as difficult as our June strikes on its nuclear facilities and probably not as effective. For starters, several ayatollahs are capable of taking over if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is seized. Their 12-member “Guardian Council” contains several. Then there’s the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which reports to the ayatollahs and controls much of Iran’s economy.
For us to intervene effectively, all the ayatollahs and IRGC members would have to be captured or killed.
It would have been better for the president to hold his tongue if we weren’t going to help the Iranian people overthrow the ayatollahs. What Iranian, now or in 10 years, will be willing to risk death by trying to overthrow the ayatollahs when promised U.S. help may not come?
Empty threats and broken promises do not a successful foreign policy make.
• Jed Babbin is a national security and foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Times and a contributing editor for The American Spectator.
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