Security analysts say Russia reportedly preparing to strike Ukraine’s nuclear power plants

Russian forces are preparing to target Ukraine’s nuclear plants by launching attacks on the substations that power them, a military-focused think tank says.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Main Directorate of Intelligence said Russia wants to disconnect Ukraine’s nuclear power plants from its energy grid, leaving Ukrainians without electricity and heat during the winter, according to the Institute for the Study of War think tank.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said last week that military action has affected safety at Ukraine’s nuclear facilities. One of the country’s three nuclear power plants was recently forced to temporarily reduce its output after damage to its electrical infrastructure.

“A deterioration of Ukraine’s power grid from persistent military activity has direct implications on the nuclear safety of its nuclear facilities,” IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said Saturday in a statement. “The IAEA will, as a priority, continue to assess the functionality of these critical substations.”

The Kremlin is attempting to divide Ukraine’s energy grid and create “energy islands” that are isolated from Ukraine’s electricity generation and transmission systems. Russian forces are striking the country’s energy grid in an effort to divide it along an east-west divide, the ISW analysts said.

IAEA teams have reported military activities or air raid alarms at all five nuclear sites in Ukraine over the past two weeks.

“Each such Russian attack on energy in the conditions of such a harsh winter weakens and devalues the efforts of key states, including the United States, to end this war,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted over the weekend on Telegram. “To end this war, Ukraine is as constructive as possible in diplomacy, while Russia is focused only on attacks and tormenting people.”

Ukraine needs about 18 gigawatts of power to meet its domestic needs in the winter. However, Kyiv’s power generation capacity currently can only produce about 11 gigawatts. That would likely decrease significantly if Russia severs one or more Ukrainian nuclear plants from the energy grid, the ISW said.

Ukraine’s energy minister said last week that Russian forces have struck every power plant in the country since President Vladimir Putin launched the invasion in February 2022. That includes 612 strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, the ISW said.

Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said the city only has half of the electricity it needs and called on residents to leave the city if possible, the ISW reported.