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OPINION:
Since 2009, six major demonstrations have been organized against the Iranian regime. Some lasted months. Two spread to more than 100 cities. Some 300 to 1,000 Iranians were killed in protests in November 2019. More than 500 were killed in the 2022-2023 protests after the Iranian morality police killed 22-year-old Mahsa Amini for wearing her headscarf improperly.
It’s too early to know whether current demonstrations will succeed in bringing down the brutal Islamist government, but they do appear different from previous ones, and it seems the downfall of the regime is in sight.
Current protests began in late December in response to a severe economic crisis caused by the collapse of the rial, Iran’s currency, and inflation that surged to more than 50%. Shopkeepers and merchants in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar initiated the protests and were quickly joined by Iranian students.
Iran’s economic problems are nothing new and were a factor in previous protests. They stem from government corruption, mismanagement of the economy and international sanctions against Iran in response to its nuclear weapons and missile programs, as well as its sponsorship of terrorism.
Yet Iran’s economic problems are much worse today because of the cumulative effect of years of sanctions. The economic pressure increased in September when Britain, France and Germany “snapped back” international sanctions that had been lifted by the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.
The Iranian people know the corrupt ruling mullahs brought down the economy. They know that instead of spending on food production, clean water and job creation, the regime wasted billions of dollars on weapons programs to fight the United States and Israel. That’s why a recent video showed Iranian students shouting, “Death to Palestine” instead of the regime’s official chants of “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.” The students are irate that they are hungry and jobless because their government squandered billions of dollars on foreign conflicts.
The Iranian regime is also now considered weaker and less formidable. Leadership was humiliated by the 12-day war in June, when Iran’s military was powerless to stop massive attacks by Israel and the U.S. against the country’s nuclear and missile programs as well as military and government facilities. Israel also set up a base near Tehran to conduct drone attacks and assassinate Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists.
That war did enormous damage to Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and its reputation on the world stage. The Iranian people know this, and it has played a role in sparking the current protests.
Other signs also indicate that Iran’s regime is weakening. Last year, press reports said the government had stopped enforcing the legal obligation for women to wear headscarves in public because of widespread defiance of the rule by Iranian women and the refusal of Iranian businesses to enforce it. Such disobedience, unthinkable in Iran just two years ago, was a small but significant indication of popular rejection of the Islamist regime, especially by women and younger Iranians.
The demonstrations in Iran are at an early stage and could be what eventually brings down the regime, but the U.S. should take steps now to help them succeed. Iran experts praised President Trump for his strong support of the Iranian demonstrators and his warning that the U.S. will come to the protesters’ aid if the government begins killing them. Mr. Trump’s words inspired the protesters and stood in strong contrast with the weak responses to previous Iranian protests by Presidents Obama and Biden.
The U.S. should pressure its allies in Europe and the Middle East to express their strong support for the demonstrators and condemn the regime’s violent efforts at suppression. It is scandalous that European leaders have said hardly anything about the tens of thousands of Iranians risking their lives to demonstrate for freedom.
The Iranian people also need Elon Musk’s help. To maintain their control and crush the protests, Iran’s leaders are curtailing and shutting down internet access. Mr. Musk could offer free internet access to Iranians via his Starlink satellite internet service, which would help them organize, communicate and keep the outside world informed.
The U.S. should also step up Voice of America Persian and Radio Liberty broadcasts to Iran. They should have 24/7 broadcasts featuring messages of support from Mr. Trump to the Iranian people. Although the Iranian government will attempt to jam these broadcasts, Iranians will be able to access them through the Starlink system.
The U.S. could undermine the Iranian regime’s ability to crush the protests. It could offer cash incentives to regime leaders who defect or refuse orders to use violence against demonstrators. It could conduct cyberattacks against the regime, jamming government and military communications. It could look out for and intercept any arms shipments sent to Iran from Russia, China or North Korea.
Michael Ledeen, a good friend who passed away last year and the best Iran expert I ever knew, was confident that the days of Iran’s evil Islamist regime were numbered. I agree and believe the end of this regime is very near. The U.S. and its allies must do everything possible to hasten the day the Iranian people win their freedom.
• Fred Fleitz has served as chief of staff of the Trump National Security Council, as a CIA analyst and as a staffer for the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.
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