Left-wing upset brewing in New Jersey after pro-Israel push against establishment Democrat

The left wing of the Democratic Party is on the verge of a win in the race to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, and, oddly enough, it may have the pro-Israel lobby to thank.

The special election primary has been a nail‑biter. Days after voters cast their ballots, the race is still too close to officially call. But the latest numbers show activist Analilia Mejia holding a slight lead — 29.1% to former Rep. Tom Malinowski’s 27.7% — in a crowded field of 13 candidates.

Things got awkward when the Democratic National Committee prematurely put out a press release congratulating Mr. Malinowski. It opened up the DNC to ridicule from the party’s left wing, who said it proved Washington insiders had been rooting for the former lawmaker all along.

Whoever comes out on top will face Republican Joe Hathaway on April 16, and the winner of that matchup will finish out Ms. Sherrill’s term.

Running an insurgent, anti-establishment campaign, Ms. Mejia has received support from major liberal figures, including Sens. Bernard Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, as well as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez of New York.

She’s taken positions that put her firmly on the party’s left flank, calling for the abolition of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the cancellation of all student debt, expanding the number of Supreme Court justices, and Medicare for All.

She has also been sharply critical of Israel, accusing the country of committing a “genocide” in Gaza.

In a twist, she appears to have benefited from money spent by pro‑Israel groups — not in support of her, but in an effort to stop Mr. Malinowski, who has been more supportive of Israel but has refused to back unconditional aid.

The United Democracy Project, the super PAC affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, poured more than $2 million into trying to block Mr. Malinowski.

Mr. Malinowski and others have pushed back on AIPAC’s approach, warning that the group’s demand for absolute loyalty from candidates could reshape primary contests nationwide.

“In New Jersey, the group may have scored an epic own-goal, replacing someone they used to support with someone far less aligned with its worldview,” Jeremy Ben-Ami, founder and president of J Street, a liberal pro‑Israel group, said on the group’s website. “The message Democrats hear when long-time friends like Tom Malinowski are targeted is not ’stand with Israel’ because we share values and interests. It is: fall in line or risk your career.”

After closing out the year with nearly $96 million in the bank, the super PAC is expected to continue to engage in primary races across the country to boost the number of pro-Israel lawmakers on Capitol Hill.

For now, though, liberal groups are celebrating, saying Ms. Mejia’s “HUGE upset” is a sign of things to come this year.

They are urging supporters to rally behind liberal candidates running against the political establishment in the primary races next month in Illinois, Texas, California, Michigan and North Carolina.

“Analilia Mejia’s momentous showing proves that voters, when given a choice, want Democrats with an inspiring vision who will boldly challenge powerful interests on behalf of working families,” said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee.

Mr. Green said that “voters chose the more progressive candidate and made clear they want Democrats who will shake up a broken political and economic system — not just be anti-Trump.”

The Democratic Party, meanwhile, has seen a growing faction of leaders, candidates, and activists who reject unconditional support for the Israeli government and have been more sympathetic to Hamas-run Gaza.

The dynamic was laid bare on the other side of the Hudson River last fall when Zohran Mamdani, a socialist Democrat, won the New York City mayoral race after facing stiff backlash from pro-Israel advocates frustrated with his condemnation of the “genocide” in the Gaza Strip and pledge to honor the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.