Gallup: Most Americans expect inflation and unemployment to worsen as the stock market grows

The latest Gallup poll, released Monday, finds that most Americans expect inflation and unemployment to worsen this year, even as the stock market improves.

The research firm reported that 62% of adults responding to its questionnaire anticipated higher prices over the next six months. Another 50% expected unemployment to increase, 26% thought it would decrease, 9% saw it staying the same, and 15% had no opinion.

Over the same period, 50% of those surveyed predicted the stock market would grow. That’s higher than the 25% of adults who expected it to contract, the 17% who saw it holding firm, and the 8% with no opinion.

“These views mark a recovery from the pessimism seen last spring amid market volatility, though optimism has not fully returned to earlier highs,” Megan Brenan, a Gallup senior editor, wrote in a summary of the findings.

She noted that Gallup has “typically found U.S. adults predicting inflation will rise” in the periodic survey. The company first conducted it in October 2001.

According to Gallup, the 62% of adults who expect higher inflation over the next six months is down from 63% in April and from a record high of 78% in 2022 during the Biden administration.

But it’s up from 52% who predicted price increases in January 2025, as President Trump returned to office.

“When the questions were last asked, in April 2025, views had worsened significantly from three months before, as President Donald Trump announced tariffs on most U.S. trading partners that created economic uncertainty,” Ms. Brenan said.

The latest survey also found that more adults expect interest rates to fall than to rise this year, and more foresee “economic growth” than the opposite.

Overall, self-identified Democrats drove the worsening economic outlook. According to Gallup, the latest poll found Republican attitudes changed little from January 2025, while Democratic prognostications were “generally worse.”

Gallup conducted a randomized national telephone survey of 1,000 adults from Jan. 2-17. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.