SEOUL, South Korea — South Korean officials are warning of potentially dire consequences as tensions resurface in Korea-U.S. relations on multiple fronts: trade, security and commerce.
Seoul’s slow-walk of a November investment pledge in the U.S. has angered President Trump, who is threatening a new tariff offensive. And distrust on the trade front is spilling into the security domain.
Security fractures may presage a wider strategic gulf opening between the two allies, post-Trump. As the U.S. confronts the expanding power of Beijing, pressure looks set to increase on Seoul to move more fully toward the U.S. side, rather than standing uneasily between the two.
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung deployed his trade and foreign ministers to Washington after Mr. Trump late last month warned he might raise tariffs on key Korean exports from 15% to 25%.
They are promoting urgency.
Foreign Minister Cho Hyun, after meeting with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, told local reporters Thursday, “The internal climate in the U.S. is not good regarding [South Korea’s] implementation of trade-related commitments.”
Bad vibes are extending beyond the economic sphere, warned National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac on Friday.
“Tariff negotiations in the economic sector and security negotiations are the two pillars supporting South Korea-U.S. agreements,” he told influential local media Chosun Ilbo. “One has already caused trouble, and the negative atmosphere is spreading to the other. Tariffs and security cannot be separated.”
At the center of a dense geopolitical and geo-economic web, Mr. Lee faces multi-faceted challenges. The most pressing concerns U.S. trade and investment.
Under tariff threats, Mr. Lee agreed to trade and investment terms with Mr. Trump in November. However, Seoul’s National Assembly has delayed the passage of legislation on a centerpiece of that agreement: The Special Act on Investment in the United States.
The act would establish a fund to fulfill the $350 billion Mr. Lee pledged to invest in the U.S. during wide-ranging talks with Mr. Trump at the APEC Summit in South Korea in November.
Though the funds will be invested in tranches rather than in a lump sum, there are widespread public jitters about the amount: Korea’s total foreign exchange reserves amount to $425 billion.
Moreover, per local media commentaries, there are concerns within Mr. Lee’s party that rushing through the legislation could encourage Washington to apply further trade pressure.
The delay has not escaped Mr. Trump. On Jan. 26, expressing impatience with the delays, he brandished a now-familiar weapon on Truth Social: threatening to raise tariffs on key Korean exports from 15% to 25%.
That represents a serious threat to trade-reliant South Korea — particularly given its close competition with Japan in multiple sectors in U.S. markets.
The threat appears to have galvanized the National Assembly. On Feb. 4, the two major parties announced the establishment of a special committee tasked with drafting the bill by March 9.
The U.S. pressure, and Korea’s slow-motion reactions, were predictable, said one pundit.
“This [November] deal was not really a deal, it was an extortion: Trump acts like a mafia boss and what mafia bosses do is come back for another bite of the apple,” said Mason Richey, an international relations professor at Seoul’s Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. “It was also obvious that South Korea would delay, hedge and try to slow walk the implementation of the deal — they don’t want to pay up.”
He suggested that some South Korean officials and lawmakers could be holding out hope that the U.S. Supreme Court will strike down Mr. Trump’s tariffs. The justices in November heard oral arguments in the case challenging Mr. Trump’s authority to impose broad tariffs and have not released a decision yet.
A ruling against the tariffs, Mr. Richey suggested, could lead to a renegotiation of the investment package. It also could explain Mr. Trump’s impatience to get Korea’s cash flowing to the U.S. as soon as possible.
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.
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