Japan’s defense minister talks tough on China as Beijing piles on pressure

SEOUL, South Korea – Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi criticized China Friday while doubling down on Tokyo’s determination to upgrade its military capabilities.

“China appears to have been waging a propaganda campaign against us, as if Japan is becoming militaristic,” Mr. Koizumi told reporters in Tokyo. “In the current security situation, it is essential for us to develop our own defense capabilities without counting on a particular country.”

It was not the first intervention by Mr. Koizumi, formerly seen as a moderate in Japan’s ruling party.

In November, amid China-Japan tensions, he visited the Japanese island of Yonaguni, where he delivered an address. The island, just 68 miles east of Taiwan’s coast, hosts sensor and electronic warfare bases. Midrange air-defense systems expected to be operational by 2031 are being installed.

This month, the Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, won a landslide election victory in the parliament’s Lower House — the biggest mandate ever won by any Japanese administration.

That may fortify Ms. Takaichi’s stance against China, the subject of her most newsworthy foreign policy act.

In November, she said any armed conflict around Taiwan would be “existential” for Japan — wording that signals the activation of Japan’s Self Defense Force.

Beijing, which claims democratic Taiwan as Chinese territory, demanded Ms. Takaichi retract. When she refused, it applied pressure.

It halted Chinese tourism to Japan, banned Japanese seafood imports, initiated a media offensive against Japanese governance of the Ryukyu islands, and stopped the export of dual-use materials.

The Ryukyus, which include Yonaguni and Okinawa, home to a U.S. Marine base, are critical for Taiwan’s defense.

Their significance is rising amid a widespread belief in U.S. and other defense circles that China’s People’s Liberation Army has been ordered to be ready to invade by 2027.

The PLA is upgrading its amphibious assets, while naval and air forces exercise frequently around the island. The drills generate intelligence about Taiwanese capabilities, reaction protocols and response times.

The tensions, combined with strong pro-Taiwan sentiment in Japan, are putting Mr. Koizumi on the spot.

Still, he and Ms. Takaichi could prove a formidable duo.

“He is young and bright and could very well be a future [prime minister]: People are going to cross him very gingerly,” said Tokyo-based Lance Gatling, principal of Nexial Research.

Mr. Koizumi, 44, is the son of former Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. A Columbia University graduate with work experience in Washington, the younger Koizumi previously served as minister of both agriculture and environment.

“She is made of smarter and sterner stuff than we expected: She pulled off a massive win and left no rancor among the LDP,” Mr. Gatling said.

Ms. Takaichi, who hails from the Liberal Democratic Party’s hawkish wing, gave Mr. Koizumi the defense portfolio, although he is a moderate who ran against her in October’s intra-party election.

The new prime minister aimed to “consolidate” the LDP by creating a “team of rivals,” said Paul Midford, who specializes in Japanese foreign policy at Meiji Gakuin University.

Mr. Koizumi has been busy. He has worked out with U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, attended the Munich Security Conference and visited Indo-Pacific Command as well as a U.S. drone manufacturer.

His China challenge is not about to evaporate.

“The only way to solve the current impasse with China is to negotiate a diplomatic product that allows China to claim that Takaichi walked back her remarks on Taiwan, and Takaichi to claim that she did not walk back her remarks,” Mr. Midford said.

He considered that difficult to finesse, though not impossible.

The job Ms.Takaichi gave Mr. Koizumi leaves him in a complex situation.

“I don’t know if I would call him a ‘front man’ [against China]: It goes with the position, after a fashion,” said Mr. Gatling, a former defense planner with U.S. Forces Japan. “He is not the secretary of Domestic Feel Good, this is the minister overseeing one of the largest, and fastest-growing, military budgets on the planet.”

In December, Tokyo approved its biggest ever defense budget, $58 billion.

His comments Friday were designed not just to respond China, but to also reassure Japanese contractors amid shifting defense policies.

“Koizumi’s criticism of China was a reaction to China criticizing the LDP’s decision to have Japan lift its ban on the export of lethal weapons,” Mr. Midford said. “His point was to call out Chinese hypocrisy: China is the world’s fourth-largest weapons exporter, but Japan is not even in the top 50. This was important, as lifting the ban is still a sensitive issue in Japan.”

Mr. Koizumi’s schedule looks busy. Tokyo wants to improve recruiting and retention in the Self Defense Forces; stand up a drone-based coastal defense system; and install a Tomahawk cruise missile “counterstrike” force.

The biggest question is whether Ms. Takaichi’s administration will pursue the holy grail of Japanese defense: Revising the nation’s pacifist constitution.

Article 9 includes the lines, “The Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.”

Any revision requires a two-thirds majority in both houses of the Diet, plus a majority in a national referendum.

Those are high hurdles: No revision has taken place since the constitution was adopted, under Allied occupation, in 1947.

Change will demand serious politicking by Ms. Takaichi and Mr. Koizumi. Experts are divided over their seriousness on the issue.

“She has said she will do it, and she means it,” Mr. Gatling said. “She has the majority in the Lower House and may be able to jawbone the Upper House, but will need a lot of opposition folks on board. If they keep [the revision] modest, they may pull it off.”

Others think the move may be less politics, more posturing.

“Takaichi has to say she will promote constitutional reform to keep the hawkish wing of the LDP happy,” Mr. Midford said. “Despite her large win in the Lower House election, constitutional reform remains difficult.”