Iran’s leadership has lost legitimacy to rule

OPINION:

A ruler’s legitimacy is granted by divine authority based on their virtue and ability to govern justly, maintain harmony and care for the people. It is a yardstick for governing that dates back to the Zhou dynasty in China. Clearly, Iran’s leadership has lost its legitimacy.

On Jan. 9, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, publicly exhorted his followers with “victory through terror” and “fight until no sedition.” Indeed, that was what happened. The Human Rights Activists News Agency reported the possible deaths of 22,000 protesters during the January government crackdown.

Testimony from morgues, graveyards and hospitals has the number of protesters killed exceeding 30,000. “Bullet fees” were demanded of families visiting hospitals to claim the bodies of loved ones.

This should not have been a surprise to those following events in Iran. The killing of Mahsa Amini in 2022 for improper wearing of a headscarf sparked nationwide protests that were met with lethal force and mass arrests.

Iran’s security services, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, were implicated in the widespread abuses. Indeed, minorities and women face systemic discrimination under Iran’s legal and social order. The United Nations and nongovernmental organizations routinely criticize Iran for its inhumane treatment of its own people.

Iran’s nuclear program

The International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly admonished Iran for its lack of transparency and breaches of monitoring obligations. In 2025, Iran was enriching uranium at 60% purity while denying IAEA monitors access to non-declared suspect enrichment sites.

When the IAEA went public with this information, it was expelled from Iran.

When Iran reportedly, according to U.S. intelligence assessments and the IAEA, halted its formal, organized nuclear weapons program in 2003, Iran continued to enrich uranium and perfect technical expertise. Most commercial reactors operate with fuel enriched to 3% to 5%. Iran has enriched uranium to 20% and most recently to 60%, a small gap from the 90% enrichment necessary for weapons-grade highly enriched uranium.

Satellite imagery early this year confirmed that Iran is actively rebuilding and fortifying nuclear and missile sites bombed by U.S. strikes in June. Although the U.S. bombing significantly damaged Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan, Iran is constructing new, deeply buried facilities and repairing infrastructure to strengthen its nuclear program.

Western assessments warn that Iran’s enrichment capabilities and stockpiles of 20% and 60% enriched uranium put Iran closer to “breakout capacity” — the ability to build a nuclear weapon quickly.

Iran’s missile program

Iran has the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East. Its inventory of short-, medium- and longer-range missiles is growing exponentially. Although Iran says these missiles are defensive and meant for regional deterrence, others see them as offensive and destabilizing.

Iran’s short-range ballistic missiles, Shahab-1 and Shahab-2, were based on Soviet and North Korean Scud technology. They have evolved into sophisticated solid-fuel missiles, such as the Fateh-110, with enhanced precision.

Iran’s medium-range ballistic missiles, with ranges from 750 miles to 1,250 miles (Shahab-3 and Ghadr-1), can reportedly reach targets in much of the Middle East and parts of southern Europe and North Africa. Iran is upgrading the capabilities of these missiles: solid-fuel propulsion, enhanced guidance and counterdefenses with hypersonic capabilities.

Although Iran has publicly stated a policy of capping ballistic missile range at 1,250 miles, there is concern that its work on advanced propulsion and satellite technology could conceal its work on missiles exceeding that. That would eventually provide Iran with intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of targeting all of Europe and the U.S.

Iran, state sponsor of terrorism

Since 1984, the U.S. has designated Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism. Iran uses the IRGC-Quds Force to support various militant and proxy groups in the Middle East. Iran provides funding, weapons and training to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

These proxies, the “Axis of Resistance,” are supported by Iran to counter mainly Israel and Saudi Arabia, but their strategies have contributed to regional instability and civilian harm.

Since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on southern Israel, where terrorists murdered more than 1,200 Israeli citizens and took 250 hostages, Israel has militarily decimated these proxies. Iran, however, continues to support its weakened regional proxies.

Change from within

Iran’s theocracy has failed the people. It has consistently treated them inhumanely while fomenting instability throughout the Middle East.

Iran, a country with a civilization extending more than 6,000 years, has devolved into a pariah state. Indeed, its people deserve new leadership. Hopefully, there are patriots who have the support of the people and the courage to be the catalyst for change in Iran, to replace a corrupt theocracy with one that cares about the people and ceases to foment instability in the region.

Such a needed change should have the unconditional support of the international community.

• The author is a former associate director of national intelligence. All statements of fact, opinion or analysis expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official positions or views of the U.S. government. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying U.S. government authentication of information or endorsement of the author’s views.