North Korean congress opens amid speculation about Kim Jong-un’s daughter succeeding him

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea’s Ninth Workers’ Party Congress kicked off with widespread speculation that Party General Secretary Kim Jong-un will present his teenage daughter, Kim Ju-ae, as the nation’s next leader.

The move would break a tradition of male succession established at the 1994 death of North Korea’s founder, Kim Il-sung, the grandfather of Kim Jong-un, and introduce the secretive, nuclear-armed dictatorship’s first female leader.

Ju-ae has so far been a no-show at the Workers’ Party Congress, which started Friday to set the nation’s policy goals for the next five years. Kim Jong-un was reelected party chairman, and his sister, Kim Yo-jong, was promoted to director of a party department.

Interest in Ju-ae’s possible succession soared after Feb. 12, when the South Korean National Intelligence Service told the National Assembly that it believed she was being groomed as the fourth Kim and the first female leader.

Ongoing speculation follows the landslide election victory of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Feb. 8. Her status means women have led the region’s three democracies — South Korea, Taiwan and Japan — but not China or North Korea.

King Kims, not Queen Kims

Defying North Korea’s 1948 national roots in Soviet communism, Kim Jong-un heads a political hodgepodge. It mingles elements of socialism with quasi-market economics in an ultramilitarized state under a family that presents itself as an absolute male monarchy.

Unlike his father and grandfather, Mr. Kim has empowered a trio of females.

His sister, Kim Yo-jong, presents foreign policy positions in state media and serves as her brother’s aide during his overseas trips. During the congress, she was promoted from deputy director to director of the party’s Publicity and Information Department.

His wife, Ri Sol-ju, is the first consort ever to join a reigning Kim in various public events.

Ju-ae, age 13 or 14, is the first child of either gender to be publicly presented by any North Korean leader.

Her existence became known when U.S. sports star Dennis Rodman and his delegation met basketball-loving Kim Jong-un and his close circle, including then-baby Ju-ae, in 2013.

Since then, the “Respected Daughter” has joined Mr. Kim at high-profile events, including a water park opening, a state visit to Beijing, a ballistic missile test and a destroyer launch.

If she does inherit power, then she will break tradition.

For more than 2,000 years, Korean monarchs were all males, with just three exceptions during the Silla Dynasty, said South Korean historian Suk Ji-hoon. Silla fell in 935 C.E.

Male inheritance remains the practice in contemporary regional monarchies in Japan and Thailand, and Thailand is a stated benchmark for North Korea’s ruling family.

Bradley Martin, author of the landmark work “Under the Loving Care of the Fatherly Leader: North Korea and the Kim Dynasty,” notes that Kim Jong-il, Mr. Kim’s late father, told U.S. stateswoman Madeleine K. Albright that he considered Thai royalty “a model” for governance.

That could point to Ju-ae’s role.

“There is room and use for more than one royal, and the Thais know the PR value of having a princess who’s beloved of the people,” Mr. Martin said. “Princess Sirindhorn’s popularity probably eased the way for the crown prince [Vajiralongkorn] when he, having some reputational issues, took over as king” in 2016.

A culture of male power

North Korea’s power structure is no model of gender equality.

Jenny Town, who directs 38 North, an expert-level data resource on North Korea, has identified only six females among hundreds of Pyongyang elites.

Outside the trio surrounding Mr. Kim, they are distant family members and Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui, she said.

Ms. Town believes Mr. Kim’s reveal of the women in his life stems from his desire to “craft an image of a family man” and “a more normal kind of leader,” particularly when traveling abroad.

This distinguishes him from his late father, a known womanizer. She also notes that the three women are “not a threat to him” as a male rival might be. “North Korea’s political structure is male-dominant,” she said.

Though underrepresented in Pyongyang’s power politics, women led the marketization of North Korea’s economy, and Ms. Ri is considered a savvy investor. That makes her and her husband “a ‘golden couple,’” said Ms. Town: “The wife is a merchant, the husband is in politics.”

Some pundits believe Mr. Kim has one or possibly two sons, likely younger than Ju-ae.

According to this narrative, their sister provides cover while they are educated, and their father has the leisure to choose an ideal successor.

“Ju-ae was exposed by Rodman, so Kim could use her in the political narrative without giving away anything new,” said Ms. Town. “Part of the reason for secrecy is this gives flexibility and options of who fits what roles.”

Some believe a son, or sons, are following their father’s educational path.

“If there is a healthy son with a dominant personality, I’m guessing the lad … may have been sent off to study in Switzerland while his sister stays home as the affectionate apple of the current ruler’s eye,” Mr. Martin said.

A source familiar with South Korean intelligence offered a different view.

“If there is a son in Switzerland, we’d have a photograph,” he said, citing global spooks’ sharp lookout for junior Kims.

Still, intelligence about North Korea often proves false, with supposedly “executed” people suddenly returning to public life.

Speculation surrounding Ju-ae is “NIS guessing,” Ms. Town said.

Despite North Korea’s male-centricity, it acknowledges needs-based inheritance.

“We all know Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un were chosen, in part, due to a lack of suitable alternatives,” said Rob York, program director at think tank Pacific Forum. “If the [South Korean] intel is true, then KJU has already determined that Kim Ju-ae is the only option.”

One reason for the centrality of male political empowerment in the Sinic world is the importance of neo-Confucianism.

Though communism claims to be a revolutionary philosophy, in East Asia, neither Beijing nor Pyongyang has promoted women to state leadership, though two females have served as acting presidents in Hanoi.

In nations with similarly Confucian historical and cultural influences that have adopted democratic governance and capitalist commerce, women have developed stronger political muscles.

Park Geun-hye was elected president of South Korea in 2013, Tsai Ing-wen led Taiwan from 2016 to 2024, and Ms. Takachi has won the largest majority ever granted to any Japanese government.

“The Sinosphere, in the general sense, is largely patriarchal,” said Mr. Suk. “But the democratic countries at least make the women’s voice heard a bit more.”

The trend may stem from systemic pragmatism.

“Both Koreas [and China] have noticed the benefits of Confucianism in instituting loyalty and service, not only within the family but in the state and even within the business firm,” Mr. York said. “Capitalism, however, is a fundamentally transformative system, so South Korea, Taiwan and Japan have had to adjust accordingly.”