OPINION:
Democrats have a new buzzword: “affordability.” Democratic strategists say “moderates” will lead the way to a more affordable cost of living for Americans, but those promises collapse into the same tax-and-regulate agenda wherever Democrats gain full control of the state government.
Virginia is the latest test case. Divided government was a reality in the Old Dominion until Gov. Abigail Spanberger won by selling herself as a “passionate pragmatist.” What Virginians got instead is the same out-of-control tax policies and Green New Deal-style energy that will exacerbate rising costs.
Pennsylvania offers a useful contrast. Here, another Democratic executive, Gov. Josh Shapiro, parades himself as a moderate while pushing extreme, costly policies. The only reason Pennsylvanians haven’t experienced the full cost of his agenda is that a Republican-controlled Pennsylvania Senate — Mr. Shapiro’s “Achilles’ heel,” according to Politico — has safeguarded the commonwealth from the governor’s liberal impulses.
Don’t be fooled: Mr. Shapiro is not the moderate he plays on national television. His latest $53 billion budget proposal calls for $6 billion in deficit spending and demands a litany of liberal platitudes, including a $15 minimum wage and increased funding for mass transit. Without balancing the budget, his reckless proposal will likely result in a $2,100 tax hike for a family of four.
The difference between Mr. Shapiro and Ms. Spanberger isn’t ideology; it’s the existence of a legislative check. Virginia’s newly established “blue trifecta,” where Democrats control their respective governor’s office and both legislative chambers, is beginning to show voters what Democratic “affordability” really means. Divided government in Pennsylvania has delayed the reckoning.
Nowhere is this disparity clearer than with energy policies. Families nationwide have endured a steady rise in electricity costs, up 32% in the past decade.
This bill will soon come due in Virginia. Among Ms. Spanberger’s first actions was reversing Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s withdrawal from the Regional Greenhouse Gases Initiative, the multistate cap-and-trade compact that taxes carbon emissions. Mr. Youngkin’s decision saved ratepayers at least $540 million in new energy costs.
Meanwhile, the energy-robust Pennsylvania has successfully fended off the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative. One of Pennsylvania’s highest courts ruled the carbon tax unconstitutional. Despite his best efforts (including suing to stay in the compact), Mr. Shapiro was forced to abandon the initiative during this year’s budget negotiations.
Still, the Pennsylvania governor is pitching his “Lightning Plan,” a toxic potpourri of carbon taxes and renewable energy mandates that will more than double electricity prices over the next decade.
Such policies have residents singing the blues when their electricity bills arrive. In its recent report titled “Blue States, High Rates,” the Institute for Energy Research finds that most states, about 86%, above the national average in electricity prices are “reliably blue.” The report concludes that these high prices are “the direct consequence of policies that deliberately sidelined reliable, conventional fuels … in favor of mandating and subsidizing preferred renewables” in states such as California.
Expensive electricity is par for the course in the ever-widening affordability divide between blue and red states. U.S. News & World Report found that the 10 most expensive states, such as California, New Jersey, and Hawaii, are Democratic sanctuaries. Meanwhile, the 10 least-expensive states, such as Arkansas, Mississippi, and South Dakota, harbor more free-market values.
Americans are showing their preference for the latter by voting with their feet. Interstate migration patterns paint a vivid picture of residents abandoning high-cost blue states for their lower-cost red counterparts.
“Blue-to-red state migration, a hotly debated political topic that became more pronounced after the pandemic of 2020, continues to be a discernible trend,” states the latest U-Haul Growth Index.
The index, which ranks states by net gain or loss of residents from state-to-state migration, highlights the mass exodus from expensive states (e.g., California, Illinois, New Jersey and Pennsylvania) to more affordable states (e.g., Texas, Florida, the Carolinas and Tennessee). Similar reports by United Van Lines and Vote With Your Feet confirm this pattern.
This mass exodus threatens Democrats’ electoral future. If this out-migration pattern persists, then blue-leaning states will lose about a dozen House seats and their associated Electoral College votes by the 2030 census. Even Pennsylvania, arguably the biggest swing state, has lost four congressional seats in the past three census reapportionments and may lose another in 2030.
Real affordability comes from economic growth, energy abundance and letting people keep more of what they earn. It comes from a tax code that rewards work and investment and an energy sector that prioritizes affordable, reliable sources.
For all their talk about affordability, so-called moderate Democrats need to walk the walk. Talk is cheap, but tax, spend and regulate policies are anything but affordable.
• Andrew Lewis is president and CEO of the Commonwealth Foundation, Pennsylvania’s free-market think tank.
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