Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s warning that a special election loss in a state Senate race should be a “wake‑up call” for the Republican Party has become a familiar refrain since President Trump returned to office.
Democrat Taylor Rehmet’s 14‑point win last weekend over Republican Leigh Wambsganss — even after Mr. Trump urged supporters on Truth Social to turn out for Ms. Wambsganss in a district he carried by 17 points — has clearly shaken some Republicans in this midterm election year.
For many in the GOP, the moment is starting to feel a lot like the midterms of 2018, when backlash to Mr. Trump’s first two years in office energized Democrats, especially voters of color and young people, while independents and lukewarm Republicans drifted away.
Michael P. McDonald, an elections expert at the University of Florida, says those parallels shouldn’t be ignored. He said that 2018 is the right starting point for thinking about 2026, saying, “Trump’s disapproval is more intense now than then, so 2018 may very well be a baseline floor of the national swing towards Democrats in 2026.”
Noting that recent special elections and polling back that up, Mr. McDonald said he doesn’t see anything on the horizon that would dramatically shift Mr. Trump’s standing by November.
“Seven months can be an eternity in politics, but there are no indications that there will be a drastic change in Trump that could reverse the damage he’s doing to his party among independents, and the fracturing we’re starting to see among Republicans,” he said.
Democrats, meanwhile, are practically giddy after a string of wins throughout 2025, often overperforming in deep‑red areas.
The upset in Texas has only boosted their confidence about flipping the House again — just as they did in 2018, when they netted 40 seats, opened the door for Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s second stint as House speaker, and gave Democrats the leverage to block much of the Trump agenda and file articles of impeachment.
Republicans, for their part, are pointing to their financial edge as a reason not to panic. The Republican National Committee ended the year with about $100 million more in the bank than the Democratic National Committee, which finished with more debt than cash on hand.
The party’s respective congressional campaign committees are on a closer financial footing, with House Republicans raising $117 million over the final three months of the year, compared to $115 million for House Democrats. Both committees had about $50 million in the bank.
Still, analysts in both parties agree that the victory in Texas by Mr. Rehmet, a labor union leader and veteran, is a reminder of how much candidate quality matters.
But they also see real warning signs for House Speaker Mike Johnson and for Republicans heading into a tough fight to defend their narrow House majority.
Echoing Mr. Patrick’s wake-up call, GOP strategist Ross Hunt said the biggest takeaway from the Texas race is how independents slipped away.
“The main thing to learn from this election is a sort of warning about Republicans’ ability to persuade independent voters,” he said. He noted that Republicans still cast more than half the total votes in the state Senate contest, which means a meaningful number crossed over.
“So you don’t have to be a genius at math to realize that that means that a lot of Republicans and a lot more independents chose to vote for Democrats,” he said.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said on social media, “A swing of this magnitude is not something that can be dismissed. Republicans should be clear-eyed about the political environment heading into the midterms.”
Democrats wasted no time framing the Texas race as another repudiation of Mr. Trump.
“Since the 2024 election, Democrats have won or overperformed in more than 90% of key races nationwide, including a historic win in Texas this past weekend,” DNC Chair Ken Martin said. “We are outperforming our 2018 pace and building real momentum for a massive midterm that will put a check on Donald Trump.”
Mr. Hunt, however, warned Democrats not to get too comfortable, saying they have their own branding problems.
“The environment and we’re in right now is one where the Democratic Party brand is still worse than the Republican brand,” he said.
He said voters haven’t forgotten what Democrats stood for in 2024.
“There’s not actually a lot of Democratic enthusiasm for turnout,” he said. “As long as Democrats don’t fix their party brand before November, Republicans will still have a strong fighting chance in all the Texas swing districts and around the country.”
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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