OPINION:
The South Korean National Intelligence Service revealed last week that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had selected his 13-year-old daughter, Kim Ju-ae, as his successor. Although he is relatively young, in his mid-40s, Mr. Kim reportedly has heart issues, is overweight and likes his liquor.
In 2010, Mr. Kim’s father, Kim Jong-il, brought his son, the young Kim Jong-un, to meet Chinese President Hu Jintao in Beijing, and reportedly announced that the 20-something Mr. Kim would succeed him. China reportedly was not happy with this news and counseled against hereditary succession.
Kim Jong-il died in 2011, and the young Mr. Kim succeeded him.
In September, Mr. Kim was the guest of Chinese President Xi Jinping for a parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. Mr. Kim brought Kim Ju-ae to Beijing to meet Mr. Xi and the leadership there.
Mr. Kim likely informed Mr. Xi of his plans to announce that Kim Ju-ae would be his successor. It’s also likely that this time, China didn’t counsel against a leader naming his child his successor.
Deng Xiaoping became China’s paramount leader in December 1978, inheriting an economy in extreme distress. He immediately launched major economic and structural reforms, including collective leadership, avoiding a “cult of personality,” two five-year terms for the presidency, regularized succession processes and leadership turnover every 10 years. Indeed, Presidents Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao adhered to the two-term norm for the Chinese Communist Party’s general secretary.
Mr. Xi was elected general secretary of the CCP in November 2012. He was reelected in October 2017 and October 2022, thereby ceasing to follow the two-term norm established by Deng and observed by his two predecessors.
That could explain why Mr. Xi, who has disregarded many of Deng’s political reforms, did not counsel Mr. Kim against hereditary succession, as his predecessor apparently did in 2010.
China wants stability on the Korean Peninsula. Since Mr. Kim took over in 2011, North Korea has exponentially increased its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, now capable of delivering nuclear warheads to the U.S., Europe and China.
Moreover, North Korea is now aligned with the Russian Federation, with a mutual defense treaty, and is assisting Russia with its war of aggression in Ukraine. More than 15,000 North Korean special forces soldiers reportedly are helping Russia’s war effort, primarily in the Kursk region. North Korea is also providing Russia with artillery shells, weaponry and ballistic missiles while likely receiving nuclear, missile and satellite assistance from Russia.
This is what young Kim Ju-ae would inherit if she became North Korea’s supreme leader. China’s Mr. Xi must hope that, if this happens, the young leader will look to China, not Russia, for guidance.
Indeed, China would not want a repeat of what happened in December 2013, when Mr. Kim’s uncle Jang Song-thaek, the second most powerful official in North Korea, was executed by firing squad for being a so-called counterrevolutionary. Mr. Jang was reportedly very close to Beijing, often visiting and meeting with its leadership. His last visit was in April 2012, when he met with President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, among others.
China probably also wouldn’t want a replay of the events of February 2017, when Mr. Kim’s half brother Kim Jong-nam, who was living in Macao, was assassinated in Kuala Lumpur International Airport with the VX nerve agent.
Jang Song-thaek and Kim Jong-nam both had long and friendly relationships with China and its leadership.
The situation in North Korea has changed remarkably since Mr. Kim took over in December 2011 after his father’s death. Mr. Kim quickly removed any opposition to his rule while establishing North Korea as a de facto nuclear weapons state aligned with a revanchist Russian Federation.
Hopefully, Mr. Xi, who apparently wants to be president for life, will not personally entertain hereditary succession for China.
• The author is a former associate director of national intelligence. All statements of fact, opinion or analysis expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official positions or views of the U.S. government. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying U.S. government authentication of information or endorsement of the author’s views.
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