Hispanic groups warn Trump’s ICE surge could ‘nullify’ GOP’s Texas congressional goals

Republicans may not be able to make good on the five seats they hope to net from Texas’ new congressional map, according to an immigration group that says the GOP is counting on Hispanics who are slipping away.

American Business Immigration Coalition Action said Texas Republicans drew the new lines last year counting on strong Latino support. But that support is wavering amid President Trump’s “enforcement first” approach to immigration, the group said, and if it drops too low, it could “nullify” the GOP’s expected gains.

“Specifically, four out of five newly drawn Republican-leaning districts would instead favor Democrats, placing two incumbent Republican Congressmen at serious risk of defeat,” ABIC Action and Comite de 100, a coalition of Latino business leaders, said in a new memo being reported first by The Washington Times.

A special runoff election earlier this month in Tarrant County, Texas, saw a Democrat flip a state Senate seat, winning by double digits. The key, analysts said, was the Hispanic vote, which appears to have consolidated behind the Democrat.

It’s a major comedown for the GOP, which in 2024 saw massive gains among Latinos, particularly in Texas.

“The Republican Party, they finally got the Latino vote. Well, they’re going to lose it all by the overenforcement of ICE,” Massey Villareal, a member of both ABIC and the Comite de 100, told The Times.

He called the Tarrant County election “the first landmine that went off.”

The groups said the slide is apparent elsewhere, too.

In Miami, a Democrat won its mayorship for the first time in nearly three decades.

In New Jersey, Hispanic-heavy Passaic County swung from a 3-point victory for Mr. Trump in 2024 to a nearly 15-point lead for Democratic Gov. Mikie Sherrill last year.

And in Virginia’s governor’s race, the city of Manassas Park swung nearly 22 points further to the left compared with the 2024 presidential vote.

Mr. Villareal said the problem is about more than Latinos being worried about getting snared in deportation arrests. He said Texas’ economy has been damaged, with construction sites going idle and businesses struggling to fill some service jobs.

ABIC said Mr. Trump needs to reverse course.

“Latino voters are demanding action on work permits and legal standing for long-term, law-abiding residents to strengthen our economy and communities,” said Rebecca Shi, ABIC Action’s CEO. “This is a wake-up call to meet the expectations of Latino voters for commonsense solutions, not senseless deportations.”

Exit polling from 2024 showed Mr. Trump collected 55% of the Hispanic vote in Texas.

Mark P. Jones, a political scientist at Rice University’s Baker Institute, said that election was a high-water mark for the GOP, fueled by antipathy toward President Biden’s economic performance, the porous border and lack of enthusiasm for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.

“You put it all together and I think it would have been unrealistic to assume Republicans would somehow retain the support among Latinos they achieved in 2024,” Mr. Jones said. “The question really is how far it will fall.”

He said a best-case scenario would be a split with Democrats. More likely, he said, the GOP wins 40% to 45% of the Latino vote in Texas.

How that plays out in the new congressional map, with its 38 congressional seats, is up for debate.

Under the old map, Mr. Trump won 27 districts. Under the new map, he would prevail in 30, and two others were shifted to make the GOP more competitive.

ABIC says a 10-point swing in Latino support from Republicans to Democrats would flip at least two redrawn districts’ leaning from GOP to Democratic and would significantly reduce the Republican advantage in two other redrawn seats.

A 15-point swing would flip four seats and imperil two Republican incumbents — Reps. Tony Gonzales and Monica De La Cruz.

Mr. Jones said one of the GOP’s target seats in the redistricting, that of Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, was always going to be a stretch — particularly after Mr. Trump pardoned the congressman’s bribery and money laundering charges.

Mr. Jones said the outcome of some of the other redrawn districts will depend on the nominees that emerge.

He said Ms. De La Cruz is the Republican whose district is the most hurt in redistricting. If Latinos vote at 2024 Trump levels, Mr. Jones said she would win handily. But if it’s closer to 2018, the last midterm election with Mr. Trump in the White House, she’s in trouble.

Mr. Jones said immigration enforcement is an issue at the margins, but a bigger factor for Latino voters in South Texas is the economy — though there, if Latinos aren’t showing up for work, or aren’t shopping as much, immigration policy could play a role.

Mr. Villareal said Mr. Trump needs to “moderate” his approach on enforcement. He said voters are eager to see illegal immigrants with criminal records booted, but want to see “Dreamers” and workers protected.

“We need those labor positions, we need those hospitality workers,” he told The Times.