Race, electability collide in Democrat battle to break 30-year losing streak

The Democratic primary between state Rep. James Talarico and Rep. Jasmine Crockett has turned into a tense, at times racially charged argument over who can win a U.S. Senate seat in deep‑red Texas, a diverse state where Democrats haven’t won statewide in more than 30 years.

That losing streak has left the party with a kind of political post-traumatic stress disorder, and it hangs over everything. After years of getting their hopes up, trying and falling short in Texas, Democrats once again see a possible path to victory, but they are locked in a fierce debate over what kind of candidate can get them across the finish line.

“The Democrats are angry,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston. “They’re looking for a way to be able to harness and hone that anger about the Trump administration and its policies towards Democratic voters and maybe some swing voters.

“Democrats are still trying to find a path that gets them a statewide victory,” he added. “It’s never worked, and they’re still looking for that moment that they can line up the celestial stars to get a statewide win.”

Those stars nearly aligned in 2018, when Rep. Beto O’Rourke came within 3 percentage points of unseating Sen. Ted Cruz, the ambitious lawmaker who had irritated plenty of Republicans and was absolutely loathed by Democrats, yet managed to hang on.

Eight years later, Democrats are hoping that deep anti‑Trump energy in their ranks, along with slipping support for him among some Republicans and swing voters, will help them end their long statewide drought.

A Democratic upset in Texas also would give the party a major boost in its quest to win a majority in the Senate.

Mr. Talarico, 36, the son of a single mother, often talks about how his Christian faith shapes his liberal politics. He has leaned heavily into an electability argument while casting himself as a working-class fighter taking on the billionaire class.

He is White, and he points to flipping a Trump‑backed legislative district that had not voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter as proof that he fits the state’s political landscape.

“I was able to inspire Democrats to get off the couch and show up to vote,” he said recently. “I was able to bring in new voters, particularly young voters, who are excited to see a young candidate running. And then I was able to peel people off from the middle and even from the right to build a big tent, and that’s what’s needed in this race.

“We have to win in November, because if we don’t win, we can’t help people.”

Ms. Crockett, 44, a rising Democratic star, outspoken Trump critic and frequent focus of viral moments on social media, doesn’t disagree about the stakes. Still, the former personal injury lawyer argues that she is the one who can win because she connects with voters who feel ignored by both parties.

“I am the type of person that real people can relate to,” she told Vox this month. “I am not the type of person that politicos get excited about.”

She said Democrats can’t keep playing by old rules in what she calls “not a normal environment” and that the party too often acts like “the doormat for the Republicans.”

That’s part of why she rejects Mr. Talarico’s electability pitch. She calls it a recycled Republican tactic: a coded suggestion that a Black woman can’t win statewide.

“Mr. Talarico has struggled with getting Black voters behind his candidacy,” she told Fox 4 in Dallas. “This is a problem.”

The tension escalated online after a TikTok influencer alleged that Mr. Talarico had described former Rep. Colin Allred as a “mediocre Black man.”

Looking to diffuse the political bomb, Mr. Talarico said his words were “mischaracterized” in his attempt to compliment Ms. Crockett.

The damage was already done.

Mr. Allred, who had been running for the Senate nomination but switched gears to run for a House seat after Ms. Crockett entered the race, posted a video endorsing her and ridiculing her opponent.

“We are tired of folks using praise for Black women to mask criticism for Black men,” he said, adding that Mr. Talarico’s “mediocre” remark should target the man in the mirror.

“You are not saving religion for the Democratic Party or the left,” he said. “You are not saying anything unique. You are just saying it looking like you do.”

Ms. Crockett has since suggested that the episode undercuts Mr. Talarico’s electability case.

“There is no way to actually get through with any Democrat, anywhere, without kind of having strong support from the Black base,” she said.

With less than three weeks until the March 3 primary, the race has become less about policy and more about who can break the party’s decades‑old losing streak. To avoid a May runoff, either Mr. Talarico or Ms. Crockett needs to clear 50% of the vote.

Whoever emerges will face the Republican nominee. The field includes incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt.

A recent University of Houston survey showed both Democrats trailing the eventual Republican nominee.

It also found that 47% of likely Democratic primary voters support Ms. Crockett and 39% back Mr. Talarico.

Suggesting momentum is on his side, Mr. Talarico announced Thursday that he had raised $7.4 million in the first six weeks of the fundraising quarter, bringing his total to $20 million.

Ms. Crockett raised $6.5 million in the fourth quarter of last year, including $4.5 million from her House account.

Joshua Delano, a Texas-based Republican political strategist, said he doesn’t see Democrats coming within 5 percentage points of beating whoever is the Republican nominee. He also said the polling he has seen suggests Ms. Crockett will be “easily beatable” in the general election.

“It looks like a lot of Democrat White liberals will show up for her, but a lot of men voters, no matter what their political stripe, probably will not,” he said.