Trump did not bring down grocery costs

OPINION:

Remember the tableau? It was August 2024. President Trump stood before a veritable buffet of Americana: bags of flour, cartons of eggs, gallons of milk and piles of packaged meat.

He looked the voters in the eye and made a pledge that sounded as crisp as a freshly minted dollar bill. “When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on Day 1,” he declared. Americans bought it hook, line and sinker.

We are now a year into the second Trump administration. “Day 1” has come and gone, along with day 365. And if you are standing in the checkout aisle today, staring at a receipt that looks more like a mortgage payment than a grocery bill, you might be wondering where that immediate relief went.

The official data claims the cost of living rose by a polite 2.7% in 2025, to which the average American consumer likely responds, “No way.” How is it not 20%? Or 40%? Or 90%?

That official number feels like a gaslight when you look at the specific items in your cart. Mr. Trump campaigned heavily on the price of food, yet grocery bills haven’t just failed to come down. They’ve climbed.

While eggs have dropped from their bird-flu-induced highs, the rest of the pantry is demanding a ransom. Ground beef was up 15.2% in 2025. Coffee surged 18.9%. Even bananas went up nearly 7%. And if the price didn’t soar, there was dramatic shrinkflation (Europe has a law against that; America does not).

Now, know this: The president has very little control over the price of food, especially in the short term. He doesn’t even really have much say in the overall economy (except, in Mr. Trump’s case, as he takes credit for the good things that happen and blames Joe Biden for the bad).

But maybe you don’t slap tariffs all over the world. I know MAGA world wants to believe they’re the greatest thing since sliced bread (up 12% during Mr. Trump’s first year), but experts suggest the extra charges are exacerbating the pain.

“The claim that foreign countries pay these tariffs is a myth. The data show the opposite: Americans are footing the bill,” said Julian Hinz, research director at the Kiel Institute. The institute’s findings estimate that the cost burden on households is expected to rise even further in 2026, increasing from $1,000 last year to $1,300 per household this year. That doesn’t show up at all in the government’s inflation rate.

The institute’s research suggests American consumers have absorbed 96% of tariff-related price increases. That isn’t a trade strategy; it’s a domestic tax masquerading as foreign policy.

The dissonance between political promises and economic reality has birthed a psychological crisis that is arguably worse than the financial one. (Remember President Carter’s “malaise” speech?)

A nationwide survey of 5,000 Americans by Talker Research, commissioned by Current, reveals that 52% of Americans now struggle to pay bills like, say, rent, on time each month. An equal number struggle to afford groceries. Nearly 9 in 10 believe we are in a full-blown cost-of-living crisis.

The most heartbreaking statistic, however, involves the humble tax refund. Once upon a time, a tax refund was “fun money.” It was a down payment on a vacation, a new TV or a splurge. Now? It is survival money. Just 14% of people said they’d spend refund money on anything fun. When a windfall becomes a life raft, the economy isn’t working.

The financial pressure is literally reshaping the map of the United States. We are seeing a “geography of affordability” emerge, where coastal dreams are dying. But this isn’t a joyful migration; it’s a retreat. About half of all respondents don’t believe they’ll ever be able to afford living in their “ideal” city or state.

That is the true legacy of the current economic moment. It’s about the shrinking of the American horizon. The promise used to be that hard work could get you somewhere you wanted to be. Now, the math suggests that hard work might just keep you from falling further behind in a place you can barely afford.

As we move deeper into 2026, the question isn’t whether Americans are struggling; we know they are. The question is how long we can sustain an economy where the “official” inflation rate says one thing, but keeping your head above water seems infinitely harder than it has ever been.

• Joseph Curl covered the White House and politics for a decade for The Washington Times. He can be reached at josephcurl@gmail.com and on Twitter @josephcurl.