Question of Druze independence looms large as Damascus consolidates power

Southern Syria’s future hangs precariously in the balance more than six months after it was rocked by brutal, sectarian violence between religious minorities and Damascus’ soldiers.

Many in the Druze-majority province of Sweida are now calling for nothing less than full independence, a demand that could plunge them directly into a fresh conflict with the now Trump-endorsed Syrian government of President Ahmad al-Sharaa.

For more than a decade, the Druze community has maintained de facto control over the province of Sweida, a small governorate on Syria’s southern border with Jordan and just east of Israel. Leadership in the province maintained a guarded neutrality during the Syrian civil war and resisted the repression tactics of the Assad regime.

The Druze are a minority in Syria, practicing an esoteric offshoot of Islam. Sweida remains the only Druze majority province in the country, where at least 337,500 live and worship.

The group’s control over the region was seriously challenged last year when clashes between Druze and Arab Bedouin militia initiated a Syrian military crackdown that left hundreds of civilians dead.

In the aftermath, Druze spiritual leader Hikmat al-Hijri emerged as the central voice calling for complete independence from Syria, vowing to “not back down from it no matter the sacrifices. We will continue the struggle until our people achieve a secure, dignified, and just future.”

Israel has provided diplomatic and military backing to the Druze in Sweida. It struck at military targets in Syria on their behalf in July.

Mr. al-Hijri’s rhetoric has been divisive, with other Druze organizations and community leaders establishing firm ties with Damascus. They argue that a decentralized Syria would create chaos and allow the Islamic State group to reestablish itself.

“Today, the one who is able to control the whole scene is President al-Sharaa and his leadership. These individuals and leaders understand the depth of the Syrian cultural community, are keen to preserve all the components and to move along with one united country,” Sheikh Suleiman Abdul Baqi, director of the Security Directorate in Suwayda city, told The Washington Times. “If there is ongoing contention for not having government control soon, that will only support chaos and create more chances for ISIS because of a lack of government control.”

This week, Syrian forces began evacuating the Al-Hol prison, which housed more than 24,000 suspected relatives of Islamic State fighters during the civil war. The release of thousands of prisoners has made it nearly impossible for authorities to track their movements in Syria and across borders.

Questions surrounding the destinations of the former prisoners have sparked concern among international observers and minority members who say it could embolden ISIS.

Earlier this month, a collection of activists, cultural leaders and intellectuals in Sweida launched the Third Stream initiative, which calls the region “an inseparable part of a unified Syria” and rejects the secessionist rhetoric of Mr. al-Hijri.

Meanwhile, Damascus’ successful campaign to integrate the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces into its government has concerned those in Sweida that any attempt to resist Syrian occupation would be crushed.

After negotiations stalled last year, the Syrian military launched an all-out assault on SDF forces in the city of Aleppo and the three northeastern provinces it controls. After weeks of clashes between SDF and government forces, the two sides brokered an agreement to integrate the Kurdish forces into the Syrian military, allowing for some autonomous control.

The SDF, which had significant U.S. military and intelligence support during the Syrian civil war, had hoped to retain some degree of autonomy over its regions, but Washington has thrown all its support behind Mr. al-Sharaa’s government. Tom Barrack, the U.S. envoy to Syria, insisted in January that the SDF’s role in fighting ISIS in the region was finished.

President Trump and his administration have grown increasingly close to Mr. al-Sharaa, the former leader of an al-Qaeda-affiliated group that fought President Bashar Assad during the Syrian civil war. Washington’s significant military and diplomatic support could dash the dreams of an independent Sweida.

Violent resistance

Sectarian violence erupted in Sweida last year, escalating from clashes between Bedouin and Druze militias in July.

Shortly after the outbreak of hostilities, Damascus deployed government forces to contain the fighting, but they were quickly attacked by Druze and Bedouin militias. The Syrian Interior Ministry reported casualties and “kidnappings” among its personnel attempting to de-escalate the conflict.

Open fighting involving Syrian, Bedouin and Druze forces continued through August despite multiple ceasefires and calls for de-escalation from the international community. Israel, in a bid to halt the government’s advance in Sweida, launched a series of targeted attacks on Syrian forces in the province and in Damascus.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported in August that at least 401 Druze civilians were killed during the fighting. At least 176,000 Sweida civilians have been displaced because of the intense fighting over the summer, according to United Nations data.

In the months that followed, Damascus pulled most of its forces out of Sweida proper, and the province remains outside the Syrian government’s control.

Damascus has instituted military trials for those accused of atrocities over the summer, but the intervention has done little for many in Sweida who view the clashes as an attempted genocide against the Druze.

Mr. al-Hijri and his allies have increasingly turned to foreign intervention as the only path to total independence in recent months, with Israel emerging as the primary candidate to oversee an autonomous Sweida. In January, Mr. al-Hijri called the Druze community in Syria an “inseparable part of the existence of the State of Israel” and the government in Damascus an extension of al Qaeda.

Israel has a long history with the Druze in Syria and has pledged to protect them from any further attacks from Arab militia or from Damascus. Israeli Druze serve in the Israel Defense Forces and have climbed to leadership positions in the Knesset.

Others in Sweida have insisted that Mr. al-Hijri does not represent all Druze in the province and that his calls for international intervention create chaos.

“There are some calls for separation … led by some like Hikmat al-Hijri. He has been attacking what the new government is doing every single step, claiming that the U.S. is supporting him. This has been causing tons of instability and conflict between the Druze community and Arab tribes,” Mr. Baqi said.

The SDF question

In addition to internal divisions over Sweida’s future, Damascus’ aggressive efforts to integrate the Kurdish-led SDF could provide hints to the government’s future approach to the Druze-majority province.

From December and throughout January, Syrian security forces pushed the SDF out of its enclaves in the northwestern city of Aleppo and out of the several provinces it once controlled in the northeast region of the country.

The two sides announced the signing of a comprehensive integration agreement Friday, which brings SDF troops formally into the Syrian military. The civil, educational and service sectors will retain some autonomy in the northeast provinces.

The agreement follows efforts by Damascus to shore up protections against Kurdish discrimination in Syria. Last month, Mr. al-Sharaa formally declared the recognition of Kurdish national rights, providing full citizenship and protection for Kurds in Syria.

Still, Syria’s history of discrimination against Kurds and its treatment of the SDF have significantly hurt trust for those in the northeast.

“The problems are, first, the trust between both sides is completely gone. It’s shattered. Kurds don’t trust Damascus at all. Second, there are no guarantees that al-Sharaa’s decree will be enshrined in the constitution and no guarantees that they will not be attacked again,” said Kawa Hassan, a nonresident fellow with the Stimson Center Middle East and North Africa program.

In diplomatic talks with the Sweida governorate, Damascus could offer some civil autonomy while insisting on military control of the region, but internal distrust of Syrian forces could lead to further deadly clashes and subsequent Israeli intervention on behalf of Druze communities.

Israel has already launched hundreds of what it calls counterterrorism operations in southern Syria, using territory it seized after the fall of the Assad government as a staging ground. The attacks have drawn consistent condemnation from Mr. al-Sharaa and have reportedly strained ongoing talks between Syria and Israel over the status of the southern border.

After a U.S.-mediated discussion in Paris on Jan. 6, Syria and Israel agreed to a mutual security pact that established a joint communication mechanism through which both sides would coordinate on intelligence, diplomacy and military de-escalation. The agreement did not address further Israeli intervention in Sweida.